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Related: Lockdown Learning, discuss home schooling during lockdown.
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Please read.
Really12345 · 17/03/2020 00:43
Just read it. Have done some ugly crying. Our lives as we know them are over. We will be a poorer smaller and younger nation soon.
I can’t think of my daughter and not loose it. I know she will Most likely survive but not to live the the life I naively assumed her to have.
crustycrab · 17/03/2020 00:52
Sorry, it's difficult to read but is there something we didn't already know here?
TiddyTid · 17/03/2020 00:54
I will read in the morning but can you encapsulate in a few paragraphs please?. In bed on my phone without my glasses for the small text.
buttermilkwaffles · 17/03/2020 00:55
Related thread / summary here:
mobile.twitter.com/kakape/status/1239694176066965505
Juanmorebeer · 17/03/2020 00:55
Can you post the link again it just akes me to the guardian home page
jenjen76 · 17/03/2020 01:11
YourWinter · 17/03/2020 01:15
My daughter sent me the link earlier. It's mathematics - and the projections make sobering reading. No maths can accurately predict the behaviour of a national or local population under conditions never previously experienced.
MarshaBradyo · 17/03/2020 01:19
Yes YourWinter I thought about that earlier when things shifted today
buttermilkwaffles · 17/03/2020 01:21
Working link to whole thread for summary:
mobile.twitter.com/kakape/status/1239694176066965505
Janemarpling · 17/03/2020 01:25
Summary from growing overground on another thread.
In brief, it says if we do nothing, they predict 80% of the UK will be infected and 500k will die and the peak will be in 3 months. It also suggests that modelling attempts to mitigate the epidemic and flatten the curve, as the government was trying to do until today, will not work as the healthcare system will be overwhelmed but might reduce deaths by half. As the government has been saying, if we were to aim for mitigation, that should be delayed until close to the peak.
It concludes, however, that the only viable strategy currently in the UK is suppression, making sure that each infected person infects no more than 1 other person to keep the epidemic under control. To do that, it needs to be done now, the entire country needs to socially distance, home isolation of cases, household quarantine where there is a case, and closure of universities and schools. This may well need to be done until there is a vaccine available (potentially 18 months away) although suppression may be possible by other means in future months in the way that South Korea is managing the epidemic with intensive testing, contact tracing, quarantine, phone tracking etc. It also recognises that such long term public health intervention has ever been done before.
It is not government strategy though, it is a scientific paper that the government has used to advise them. As we saw today, most of the suppression strategy has been implemented.
SuckingDieselFella · 17/03/2020 01:30
OP please don't try to frighten people. Without an additional commentary, this is what you will do. This is just ONE model and it may be flawed. Neil Ferguson says this in today's Times:
"“The aim is not to slow the rate of growth of cases, but actually pull the epidemic into reverse,” Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College, London, said. “Instead of talking about hundreds of thousands of deaths, there still will be a significant health impact that we’ll be talking about. Hopefully, tens of thousands . . . maybe, depending on how early we are just a few thousands.”"
One of the other authors says this on twitter:
Kai Kupferschmidt
@kakape
·
55m
It’s important to point out the caveats and there are many: There’s a lot of assumptions built into the model that may be wrong. The virus could change, drugs could become available, seasonality may still end up playing a role. And then there is us, the humans.
Kai Kupferschmidt
@kakape
I left out the last sentence of the paper. After saying that this has never been attempted, the authors write: "How populations and societies will respond remains unclear.” Yes, it is unclear. And crucial. It is - ultimately - up to us.
jenjen76 · 17/03/2020 01:35
I genuinely wasn’t trying to frighten people. I just wanted to share information in a time in which it’s needed
SuckingDieselFella · 17/03/2020 01:38
Why do you want to share this information?
You haven't offered any reason as to why people should 'please read'.
SuckingDieselFella · 17/03/2020 01:41
Do you have a scientific background jenjen76?
How accurate do you think this model is?
SuckingDieselFella · 17/03/2020 01:47
jenjen76 has gone quiet 
Anyone who does actually bother to read a 20 page scientific article needs to understand that this is just one model and their assumptions may be flawed. It has made the government change strategy but that doesn't mean that everything they predict will happen.
jenjen76 · 17/03/2020 01:52
Agreed 
This is an important paper. I wanted to share. Please feel free to upload opposing scientific papers.
SuckingDieselFella · 17/03/2020 01:57
There are no other "opposing" scientific papers. This is the only model.
This is stated in the paper, jenjen. If you don't know this you haven't read it.
Are you able to explain why it's important or are you simply looking to frighten people? You don't come across as authoritative in any way.
jenjen76 · 17/03/2020 02:02
The only person coming across as frightening right now is yourself 
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