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OP posts:
SnoozyLou · 17/03/2020 08:51

@SuckingDieselFella How is the OP trying to frighten people by linking to the paper that informed government?

Because if you present something people really don't want to hear, you're either accused of making it up, or scaremongering. I think it's called denial.

Yes, this paper is conjecture, but it wasn't produced by "Doris from number 42". It sounds slightly more realistic than "wash your hands, sing happy birthday, and wait for all this to blow over".

I would hope the truth lies somewhere in between - could be worse - could be better. But I do think a lot of people need to wake up. There are still threads opening up every 5 minutes with people asking whether they're still going on holiday.

xtinak · 17/03/2020 09:23

Can someone explain why school closures seem to make things worse?

Please read.
MarshaBradyo · 17/03/2020 09:24

Good question xtina interested to know

MarshaBradyo · 17/03/2020 09:26

People can deal with a model. It’s the best one we have and we still know it may not hold.

Crazy to suggest we can’t read it.

SnoozyLou · 17/03/2020 09:26

@xtinak Because you'll find a lot of people will say they have "no choice" but to leave their child with their grandparents if the schools are shut.

Really12345 · 17/03/2020 09:30

@AlaskaSometimes agree I was upset last night. Today I am calmer.

Not over the top though. We either have a shit ton of deaths or we basically don’t go out for a year and a bit. If you don’t think that’s gonna Massively affect you and your children you haven’t woken up to the reality yet.

Kid is not going to see her grandparents for a year and a half. She might not go to nursery for a very long time. Her father who has health conditions may not be able to take her out the house for a long time. I’m a healthcare worker, I won’t be at home much I think for a year and a bit. She’s an only child, her development and worldview will be fundamentally shaped by the fact she is going to have much more limited social interaction for a bloody long time. And we live in a house with a garden. If you live in a one bedroom flat, well life is going to be bit shit for a long time. And we’ve not got into the potential deaths of her relatives.

Life has to change today to save lives. We may emerge back into our lives when there is a vaccine but if we have shut the country down for 18 months then well it’s not going to be the same country is it.....

bumblingbovine49 · 17/03/2020 09:40

"it's pretty obvious that we're just going to get a massive peak when social distancing comes to an end.*

If we plan to put in place an AGGRESSIVE contact tracing and isolation process,.when.the virus is more under control, we could keep it there with fewer social restrictions ( as s. Korea has done).
So we could plan for that now. Learn what s. Korea and Singapore and HK have done and be ready to replicate it here as soon as restrictions are lifted. We could.probay .maintain that more easily for longer , or until a vaccine is developed
I doubt we will though because forward planning seems an anathema to.this government

Me33 · 17/03/2020 09:42

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn at OP's request.

DentalPatient · 17/03/2020 09:44

Does anyone understand the second peak predicted at the end of this year?

xtinak · 17/03/2020 09:47

@DentalPatient yes and no! I understand that everytime restrictions are lifted, if unmitigated, the epidemic would just follow the same course again. But I'm not clear on the relative impact of different measures on that.

PegasusReturns · 17/03/2020 09:50

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

SuckingDieselFella · 17/03/2020 09:51

@jenjen76 If you understand the paper, why weren't you able to explain why you wanted people to read it?

As I said, you need to read it with the researchers' own caveats in mind. It's a worst-case scenario. There are so many variables in this situation that nobody can predict with certainty what is going to happen.

SuckingDieselFella · 17/03/2020 09:53

@PegasusReturns

Yes, I care so much about the opinion of a random online stranger.

Particularly one who engages in name-calling and is looking for an argument.

Look for it elsewhere, please.

SuckingDieselFella · 17/03/2020 09:55

@Me33

These are not conclusions. It's a model. They are not saying that this will definitely happen. There are many variables involved. You need to read it with this in mind.

PegasusReturns · 17/03/2020 09:57

@SuckingDieselFella

I’m not interested in an argument. I am interested in you stopping bullying posters who feel vulnerable and are sharing legitimate sources of information.

You clearly find no value in this thread so why not post somewhere else instead of berating the OP?

MarshaBradyo · 17/03/2020 09:58

Sucking what you say is right, but I’m glad it’s out there so I have access. It being a model is not an issue for me.

xtinak · 17/03/2020 10:01

I'm wondering if there if the link between school closures and higher second wave is linked to the dreaded herd immunity issue, as well as the issues of health worker childcare and grandparents as childcare?

Miriel · 17/03/2020 10:06

I think having 'school and university closures' as a single variable that way isn't especially helpful if politicians are taking the graph at face value for decision-making. Closing universities isn't going to cause childcare issues for NHS staff. Neither is allowing those who don't work, or are working from home, to keep their children away from school without worrying about fines. I'd also argue that unless there are SEN issues, a secondary school-aged student should be able to stay home alone while their parents are working. It isn't ideal, but if it's that or have a thousand or more teenagers gathering together every school every day, it seems the better choice.

NiteFlights · 17/03/2020 10:07

There is no point in attempting to read an scientific article unless you are used to reading such articles and you understand the environment they are written in.

News just in, only people who are used to reading scientific articles are allowed to read scientific articles.

Interesting reading, thanks OP for posting.

xtinak · 17/03/2020 10:12

@Miriel these are good points about childcare being a heterogeneous issue. However there may be other reasons why schools and universities are bundled together and why their closures could augment a second peak? But I don't understand what these issues would be, unless it's linked to immunity. If children are exposed in the first wave, they won't be carriers in the second?

RB68 · 17/03/2020 10:14

You are dumbing us down diesel. That is more offensive than posting the link to the paper. Of course it's predictive, of course there are assumptions, of course it could be wrong.

However it also might not be. We are forewarned and forarmed. We will all need courage moving forward we need to accept our vulnerabilities and do what we can to adapt and hopefully survive.

We don't need to be having a row about it all

Titslikepicassos · 17/03/2020 10:20

Are you able to explain why it's important or are you simply looking to frighten people? You don't come across as authoritative in any way.

Are you able to explain why you’re such a condescending arse @SuckingDieselFella?

Really12345 · 17/03/2020 10:21

@SuckingDieselFella where does it says it’s a worst case? It’s a model yes but a best guess model not a worst case. This is what they think will happen depending on what measures are taken and it’s worse than what they thought would happen 5 days ago. None of the possible outcomes they predict are good. Some are much much worse.

Do you have any researched moddling with good outcomes to share?

Me33 · 17/03/2020 10:26

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn at OP's request.

MozzchopsThirty · 17/03/2020 10:29

Thank you for posting OP

don't know why people are reporting or why people are crying when reading a paper 🙄