Keep seeing people say “loads” of healthy young people are seriously ill/dying in Italy?

[DennisReynoldsDuster]

...but I can’t see where this is coming from. Stats I mean. I’m already terrified for my nan, parents and elderly neighbour and doing what I can in my community to help elderly or vulnerable people.
But I keep seeing posts on here saying young healthy people are dying (no underlying conditions) and it’s making me even more worried. I understand it’s sadly inevitable that some young healthy people will die but the way some posters are making it sound like we are basically all going to die...

Can anyone point me in the direction of useful stats? I’ve looked at worldometer.

And I’m not trying to scaremonger I’m genuinely wondering whether these statements are true or not. I didn’t think we knew enough yet about the evolving numbers to make statements like that

Perhaps they are smokers. They could be otherwise healthy but with fucked lungs.

The number of deaths in Italy of 30-40 year olds that I posted upthread was Saturday's official information and as of Saturday those were the only 2 under 40s.

The number of seriously ill younger people is high. Again, as of Saturday, 12% of ICU Covid patients were under 50.

@AgnesNaismith you need to read that abstract again...the median age of 47 is NOT those needing emergency care. It's the median age of the confirmed cases they saw in that sample, of which 5% were asymptomatic, and over 70% had mild disease.

"Among of 262 patients, 46 (17.6%) were severe cases, 216 (82.4%) were common cases, which including 192 (73.3%) mild cases, 11(4.2%) non-pneumonia cases and 13 (5.0%) asymptomatic cases respectively. The median age of patients was 47.5 years old..."

the NHS will not cope

Having spoked to friends who work in the NHS I am actually reassured re the preparation that is taking place. They feel it is under control and in fact seem calmer than the general population, possibly because they are less helpless.

In answer to your question OP the risk of dying if you are under 50 is low. That isn't the same as zero. If the death rate is 0.2 that means 2 in every 1000 people between 10 and 39 who get it will die. So young people are expected to die from it. But in lower numbers than older people.

Spoken

If you want a bigger sample size this article has over 72,000 cases. There are more recent articles in The Lancet, NEJM and JAMA.
jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

@SquashedFlyBiscuit I meant as things stand. There have currently been 6400 deaths, so that’s 12 people.

@Violet25 it’s not intended to be insulting. My point was a lot of people in the supposedly “not at risk or reduced risk” bracket are treating it as though it’s not a big deal and with the news coming out of Italy it’s terrifying me. One for the people I love, as I said I’m already terrified for those with underlying conditions etc, and two because I don’t think a lot of people are taking it seriously because they don’t think it applies to them. And that’s what I consider a revolting attitude.
I did not intend to imply that It was fine if it didn’t affect the majority of younger people or immune suppressed people - that’s a horrible way to think. I’m sorry you’ve been through so much and hope you and your family stay safe.

@pelirocco123 news article this morning says they’ll need 7 times more ventilators than they have.

There are several younger people in critical care aged between 20-30 and a lot of these are because they took ibuprofen and other anti inflammatory drugs.

because I don’t think a lot of people are taking it seriously because they don’t think it applies to them.

This is so true, even at work last week people were saying it's just flu/only old people will die etc

But rhe mortality rate doesn't mean its 0.2% of the deaths.
Howeve I suspect the 0.2% is of confirmed cases. I suspect many more have had it mildly. And so that 0.2% should be much lower

By that logic, the mortality rate for the over 60s would be huge! Maybe around 90%. Clearly that's ridiculous.

The stats for hospitalisation are a bit worrying IMO...

In France & Italy they've said the median age is 65 which means as many people under 65 in hospital as over 65.

In the Netherlands 50% are under 50.

@StealthPolarBear 0.2% are the official figures being given by of all cases including an estimate of asymptomatic cases. It might be wrong. But the point is still that although young healthy people have much less chance of dying of this virus, some still will.

There will be a lot of ‘young and healthy’ people that actually have undiagnosed underlying conditions or who are healthy despite knowing they have these issues so the issues are overlooked. That’s kind of how being young works, it masks your issues. There are plenty of healthy young diabetics (who manage their condition) or healthy young people with neonatal kidney problems. I can think of a few people that I know who are objectively young and healthy that could die from this.

...and yes, even with a CFR of 0.2-0.4% I worked out that this means c. 40,000+ people in their 30s and 40s dying if 80% of us get it.

With the teenage CFR if 80% of us get it as per the Govt's reasonable worst case scenario it would be 1 or 2 kids per secondary school.

@SofiaAmes I think the death rate for suicide is quite high....

@Teateaandmoretea You must have friends who work in a different part of the NHS than my friends do. I have a sister who is a nurse and a friend who is a HCP. The idea the NHS are prepared is laughable.

I hadn’t heard that about anti inflammatory drugs making it worse, is there a source for this?

I think a lot of the fear comes from the variation of cases - it’s impossible to know how badly you or loved ones would get it.

There’s also a lot of people saying they’d rather get it now before the NHS is too overwhelmed.

If young healthy people are being hospitalised sadly I would expect the death rate to start going up in that age bracket as soon as the hospitals get overwhelmed because not everyone will get the treatment they need

Thanks alloutoffucks I did wonder if they'd done that. It's a shame I was wrong :(

I hadn’t heard that about anti inflammatory drugs making it worse, is there a source for this?

It was attributed to the University of Vienna, who denied it was them but didn’t deny the information itself which came from the Lancet, though I might be wrong.

Apparently it’s official advice in France and ibuprofen and aspirin, which are NSAIDs can make things worse.

Plenty of info about it, do your research.

Apparently the younger people hospitalised in Italy did use ibuprofen, though I’m not completely certain on that.

@Tootletum If or 2 kids in each secondary school killed themselves in the next 2-3 months, there would be a nationwide panic. That is what this virus will do.

The 0.2% death rate is not based on using anti inflammatories.