Keep seeing people say “loads” of healthy young people are seriously ill/dying in Italy?

[DennisReynoldsDuster]

...but I can’t see where this is coming from. Stats I mean. I’m already terrified for my nan, parents and elderly neighbour and doing what I can in my community to help elderly or vulnerable people.
But I keep seeing posts on here saying young healthy people are dying (no underlying conditions) and it’s making me even more worried. I understand it’s sadly inevitable that some young healthy people will die but the way some posters are making it sound like we are basically all going to die...

Can anyone point me in the direction of useful stats? I’ve looked at worldometer.

And I’m not trying to scaremonger I’m genuinely wondering whether these statements are true or not. I didn’t think we knew enough yet about the evolving numbers to make statements like that

I have to add, it does not break down serious/critical vs. mild by age group though.

^oops, that was the probability, I’ll upload the other stuff in a min.

If a lot of people are infected, a 0.2% mortality rate amongst young people is still a lot of young adults dying.

This virus kills the elderly and those with severe health conditions much more quickly. So at the beginning it is those who die. As time goes on you do start to see healthy young people die. Far less than the first group, but yes unless the virus is stopped, some will die.

Deaths in Italy by age.

"The youngest person to die is a 38 year old man with multiple health issues."

Well, that's obviously not true because there was a 34 year old doctor in China, the one who tried to blow the whistle.

Italian friends said the situation around Milan is bad. They are Very very scared and only in late 20s.

Did my pic attach?

Well, that's obviously not true because there was a 34 year old doctor in China, the one who tried to blow the whistle.

Who may or not have died of Coronavirus.

So if 0.2% of 20-24 year olds die (given the government want younger people to get the virus). This will mean 8,360 will die if the government continues with its current plans. That is a lot of young people aged 20-24.
0.2% mortality rate is a low figure, but if everyone gets it then it is a lot of actual people.

Yes - what is the source?

The Guardian posted that nearly half of patients in ITU in Italy wer under 60, something like 40-60 years old. NOT the over 70 that is being talked about. Middle age is also at risk for serious illnesz

I don’t think anyone is saying “nobody young and healthy will die” or even that “nobody young and healthy will get very sick”. I think we are just trying to be pragmatic, in a time of anxiety for everyone, and say the risk is very low. (I say this as someone who is very much not healthy.)

But in this country we don’t have the facilities for that number of icu patients......does this mean we are likely to have more young deaths?

The youngest to die was not 38. Look at the stats. There is a 0.2% mortality rate for all younger age groups except young children. A mortality rate means people this age died. Just because you don't know their name, does not mean it did not happen.

@AgnesNaismith Priority will be given to young people. We are more likely to get in the situation in Italy where we say no one over 60 or 65 gets an ICU.

That’s just horrific

So yes most deaths will be older people. But if the government continues with its plan to get all young people infected, then there will also be a lot of young people dying.

Need to be very careful applying the death rates in China to the rest of the world. In Europe we will have higher death rates. Why? Because many young people in China didn't die but still required hospitalisation. If beds are limited, or people are not tested, or are discouraged from going to hospital, then they won't get even young people tubed early enough. The Chinese doctors figured out very early on that aggressive ventilation techniques applied early greatly increased chances. They also were able to draft in medical staff from other areas of China en masse, not to mention rapidly building hospitals and getting the equipment in. IMHO it's shortage of ICU and its speed of application, not the general health of youngsters that will be the problem.

I have not verified the quality of this source, but if it is correct, it means that in Italy, as of a few days ago, yes a few younger patients had died, but 88% of deaths were patients over 70 years old, with a meaningful difference in mortality rate between 70+ and 80+.

www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fh1qyh/mortality_rate_in_italy_by_age_group_n_11538/

What is more important, though, is that each of us can reduce the total number of deaths, whatever it ends up being, and reduce our own individual risk of dying from this, by reducing to a minimum the amount of face-to-face meetings with people who don't already live with them even while feeing fine, and also by following the advice to self-isolate for 7 days for any persistent, new cough or any fever.

Yes most people who die will be older. You can see that in the stats published about mortality rates by age.
The issue is that people see 0.2% mortality rate and think that means 1 02 people will die. When the reality is if everyone young gets the virus it is thousands of young adults that will die.

IMHO it's shortage of ICU and its speed of application, not the general health of youngsters that will be the problem.

My view too

Reddit???

@alloutoffucks
But if the government continues with its plan to get all young people infected, then there will also be a lot of young people dying.

Yes, as happened in China but on a much larger scale, the government policy is going to make a lot of orphans. How many single parents have a health condition, or are in their 40s or both? This group are completely ignored by the policy, and are going to get royally screwed, or rather their kids are when they go into care.

I had a very quick look at the reddit post linked and the stats come from the Italian national institute of health.

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