Keep seeing people say “loads” of healthy young people are seriously ill/dying in Italy?

[DennisReynoldsDuster]

...but I can’t see where this is coming from. Stats I mean. I’m already terrified for my nan, parents and elderly neighbour and doing what I can in my community to help elderly or vulnerable people.
But I keep seeing posts on here saying young healthy people are dying (no underlying conditions) and it’s making me even more worried. I understand it’s sadly inevitable that some young healthy people will die but the way some posters are making it sound like we are basically all going to die...

Can anyone point me in the direction of useful stats? I’ve looked at worldometer.

And I’m not trying to scaremonger I’m genuinely wondering whether these statements are true or not. I didn’t think we knew enough yet about the evolving numbers to make statements like that

....says the person posting on social media

I have not verified the quality of this source, but if it is correct, it means that in Italy, as of a few days ago, yes a few younger patients had died, but 88% of deaths were patients over 70 years old, with a meaningful difference in mortality rate between 70+ and 80+.

I hate to share the bad news. We're not going to be doing as well as Italy. We didn't start the lock-down, we don't have such good healthcare and we haven't listened to a damned word the Italian doctors have been saying last week. 15th Mar before they figure out they haven't got enough ventilators.... duh! They're still sticking front-line drive-through testers in surgical masks, plastic aprons and nothing more, have you seen the pictures? These poor nurses could be dead in three weeks, the amount of exposure people get does seem to matter. Posts from NHS workers indicate they've barely started PPE training, all that should have been in the bag by now to avoid losing half their front-line staff before the major rush. We were gifted a huge opportunity of a week or more's grace and we squandered it. I mean FFS, Slovakia closed their schools and had prisoners making masks when they had 10 cases.

No I don’t see the figures for loads of young people dying at all. Under 30 very reduced impact. Over 70/80 higher risk of death.

However I have seen reports of doctors in Italy saying that they were surprised how younger than 60 (but generally over 40 yrs) were very ill with it. They recovered better. But yes without hugely scaremongering, it is a little worrying.

You do know that a 0.2% mortality rate if all the young adults in the UK get this virus, still means thousands of them dying?

They're trying to figure out why there are NO people under 20 who have died, and practically none with symptoms. At all. I haven't heard that there are "loads" of young people dying of it anywhere. That's the last I've heard.

This was also on the national radio station this morning in Australia. Dr Norman Swan on the ABC.

AgnesNaismith I have no evidence of whether what you are saying is true or not, but I think you have misinterpreted the study you read...

The average age of the sample of 262 was 47.5. This included only 46 serious cases. The vast majority were what they called common cases. Some were even asymptomatic. It is NOT true to say that the average age of people requiring ICU care was 47.5

This thread is so insulting. I’m 39, with a four year old daughter and have stage 4 cancer. I’ve spent the last five years struggling to stay alive but according to many posters on this thread, it’s fine if I die. Absolutely revolting attitude.

@Violet25 I haven't read the thread but I certainly do not wish anything other than happiness and long life for you and your daughter.

I know this has already been said in this thread. But to be clear, how can no children have died when the risk of death for 10-19 is 0.2%?!

Idk about the total child death rate. However a child in this age group definitely died in China. The rate has been ascertained at 0.2%. It wasn’t put at that for shits and giggles.

Figures from Italy show case fatality rate (CFR) is present
0 for 20-29 0.
1% for 30-49
0,6% 50-60
2.7% 60-69
9.6% 70-79
46% 80 onwards

You must take into account that the CFR takes in to account only known cases there is people who are positive but never tested as they have mild symptoms. This will bring the % CFR down but obviously these are known deaths. It shoudl also be noted that the actual deaths from the COVID 19 is not going to be known until years from now, as the covid 19 is causing the deaths of others who are not dying from COVID 19 directly, so for instance if you have a ehart attack your chances of survival are minimal as A&E are full with thos being treated for COVID 19. The truth is important as it empowers you to take steps yourself to protect you and your family. The best thing you can do is start your social distancing, don't go out don't socialise if you are in the risky categories. But also be aware those who do go out do socialise then are a risk to everyone when they return home. Turn your home in to a clean area where you will live without any fear of catching it as you can only do this if you go out. Sit it out which is what the govt is now saying everyone over 70 should do. They fail to take in to account how difficult this is when they are allowing kids to go to school people to socialise and then return to spread the virus to those who are in self-isolation. Common sense and education will save you not the govt. THINK OF THIS AS A AEROBOURN VIRUS BECAUSE IT IS AND KEEP AWAY FROM OTHERS IN STORES ETC BUT BEST IS START TO ISOLATE YOURSELF AS SOON AS YOU CAN AT HOME FOR AT LEAST 3 MONTHS

The R0 which is the rate of transmission to others - i.e 1 person will pass it on to 2 people in a R0 of 2. Those 2 will pass it on to 2 each and each of those will pass it on to 2 each etc so expediential growth.

R0 of flu is 1.2 R0 of Covid 19 is between 3.5 to 5
So an example of R0 of 5 growth = 1 person (always counted as person 0) will pass it to 5 (5 total) those 5 will pass it to 5 each (30) those 35 will pass it to 5 each (174). So if you remember that people are passing the virus whilst there are no symptoms for 14 days. imagine what the no.s will be like then, especially if you take every person is a passing virus at the same time. So all 5 of the initial people have passed it to 5 but they are still passing it thereafter. This is why they use doubling growth - which is presently 4 days so the nos will double every 4 days and it is likely that this length of time is too great at present and doubling may be likly at a greater rate.

We can only try to imagine what you are enduring. I don't think anybody in their right mind would wish anybody to die and those who suggest it only kills those that are old, with vulnerabilities etc are morons likely with a lack of empathy and normal sense and humanity, they tend to come out fo the woodwork at times like this and they probably agree wholeheartedly with the likes of Trump and only serve themselves. The world is just beginning to feel the fear you have been living with it and do so daily. they get their pleasure from seeing your reaction and distress.

How many people will need ventilators? Its not a normal treatment used for those who have pneumonia even in hospital

Just to put things into perspective: 0.2% is 12 people worldwide. It’s not ‘loads of people’.

How? 1% of 100 is 1. 1% of 1000 is 10. So 0.1 percent of 1000 is 1?

So 1 in 1000? Thats tons of people.

What do the statistics look like for the Flu? Or measles? Or suicide?

I’m concerned for any younger person with any health issues. It stands to reason that they will be affected worse.
I’m more worried about younger people I know with health issues that the older perfectly healthy people.
I’m remaining calm and we all have to pull together as communities to help everyone and especially those who are more at risk.
0.2 per cent of an entire population age group is still a sizeable number.
Italy and France still has lots of younger smokers; this will not be helping.

Fenella
Idk, are you going by the statistics of right now? We know for a fact they’re wildly off.

IF (as will never happen) the whole planet got it, 0.2 percent of 7.8 billion is 15 million, 600 thousand.

Clearly this isn’t going to happen. But I think 0.2% will end up being a lot more than 12 and obviously far less than 15.6 mill.

IMHO it's shortage of ICU and its speed of application, not the general health of youngsters that will be the problem.

This. Obviously it seems to affect younger people and children less seriously, but how do we know that part of the reason it’s mostly 70 and 80 yo dying is because doctors are choosing to treat the younger people who are in a serious condition with it?

The death rate will depend on whether cases can be more spread out over time,
to keep numbers on any day to what hospitals and ICU can treat

WHO report on China:

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

Page 12 - 13 says:
80% mild/moderate disease

BUT
mild/moderate does NOT mean what you may think:

Page 13 shows about half are mild and half are "moderate"
where Moderate is defined as 'has pneumonia' but not bad enough for hospital

So COVID statistics breakdown (China) is:

40% mild
40% pneumonia - staying at home
13.8% severe disease - hospital, need oxygen
6.1% critical - need ICU

Reports from the Netherlands say half of their cases on ventilators atm are people under 50

We won't know until a few weeks after the peak is over
what the death rates in Europe and the USA are for the different age groups

Case 1 in Italy, the 38-yr-old marathon runner, has only been out of danger a few days - but is still in hospital

In the United States, about 30 per 100,000 children in the age range 10-19 die every year. I imagine it's a bit less in the UK. That's from ALL causes, from suicide to car accidents to pediatric cancers.

If .2%, or 2 in 1000, children 10-19 die from this, that's 200 out of every 100,000.

This means even if only 20% of the population gets this virus, it will kill more 10-19 year olds this year than ALL OTHER CAUSES OF DEATH COMBINED.

More than all the rest combined. And that's with only 20% infected. If it's 60%...

Many more old people will die from this than young people. But there is no age category for which this is not, at least according to current evidence, more deadly than all-causes death for a given year in a developed nation.

You can say "hardly any children will die," but would you say "oh, let your child go to the party with drinking, hardly any teenagers die on average in a year, just a few in 100,000!" or "well, so few kids get cancer, it's not worth getting my kid checked out with these weird symptoms," or "almost no one gets kidnapped, really, may as well not even talk about stranger danger with my kids."

This is more dangerous than every murderer and every misplaced weapon, this year. More dangerous than every drunk driver. More dangerous than every overdose and every eating disorder.

You’re not the only one hearing this - not sure where you are, but this is from the ABC (oz equivalent of BBC).

Think corona virus only kills the old? Think again.