Omg. The next step in the strategy. And if we all stick together it may work

[Bool]

Next step in UK strategy. Lock down all the over 70s (and other immunocompromised - kids / adults) for 4 months. Lock them down. Then make it illegal to close schools. That means we gain immunity to the virus as a population and keeps the beds open for the unusual cases that are not foreseen.

Can over 70s not even go out for a walk if they stay far away from others?

Anyone who thinks we can flatten the curve should read this. It was linked by credible scientist Simon Baron Cohen. The stats are from America but clearly apply everywhere. To spread out the caseload so the the US health system could treat all the seriously ill would take a decade. That’s how overwhelming the situation is. The only option is widespread testing and a complete lockdown.

medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727

Again I do think it is a good Idea, but there needs to be a managed risk.
Like I have said before carers are going to have to look after some,children of the parents are also going to have to.
But like I have said its managed risk so a lot better then going out to public shops,public transport.
Carers etc will have to stay away if Ill and obviously wash hands which most are probably all ready doing.
It also should extend to vulnerable, I have 2 children with quite bad asthma so when I feel it is time I will quarantine the whole family.
There will come a time were you will have to do what is right for you and your family without putting anyone at risk.

@DBML
We have an 89 year old relative who lives with us.
You have to keep them in a room, be very careful around them, wear a mask, gloves, keep 1m away from them. Otherwise you could potentially kill them. You may have already passed it onto them.

Can over 70s not even go out for a walk if they stay far away from others?
Yes, you will be able to. Radio is suggesting this policy will be implemented in about 20 days. They would like people to cut out 75% of their social interaction.

@NellyGrace
Can over 70s not even go out for a walk if they stay far away from others?
Yes, why not. We just all have to act as though we have it already... cause we might.

nellodee is one of the few talking sense here.

In Ireland we have a fit, healthy 20 year old in ICU. There will be more like him.

The way to protect the elderly is not to lock them away and allow everybody else to get the virus. That's how you end up with a catastrophe.

sweetgingercat Well said.

Re people moaning about this vs school closure

Surely the point is school closure is containment. So reducing spread not protecting kids. So thry can if necessary go to the shops with Mom as they won't be carrying anything they catch back to 500 people at school. They can dep on age stay home whilst someone buys their food and fetches their meds. Thry will be within a household so someone will notice if thry get sick from this or something else. Other people can provide child are cos it isn't about total lock down, just reducing interactions.

Vs 70+ being told not to go out at all, potentially running out of food and meds, potentially having no one notice they're sick or have had an accident at home, feeling like they shouldn't call for hell because they've been told to isolate and fe they've been locked away out of sight out of mind.

Re closing schos exposing older people due to childcare that's currently what's happening but the lite germ magnets are mixing with hundreds of people every day and then coming back to Granny rather than going between their house and grannys

@vegas888
Why hasn’t it spread in poorer countries more, places like Tunisia and Egypt etc,
I would have thought that was obvious. They don't have as many people jetting around the world catching it. It will spread to these countries later. But it will spread.

If you live with someone who needs to self isolate, then you follow the guidelines that have been released. You use shared spaces separately and clean afterwards. So bathroom, kitchen, etc.

You'll never fully eradicate the risk, but the point is everyone needs to try.

It's a pretty shitty attitude that too many of this thread seem to have. It's almost as if you're trying to say oh it's too "hard" so I'm not going to try.

Well, that's grand. If you don't want to try, don't. But then don't be shocked if someone gets ill?

Just watched this video thought it may be of interest to people.
This doctor shows scientific papers with evidence that vitamins d supplementation can reduce the risk of respiratory illnesses in general. Worth a watch I think

Alice021 ... Ireland's objective in its measures is to slow down, manage rate of infection etc, not eradicate it.

Of course there will be young people seriously ill, just a far smaller proportion than elderly or those with health conditions.

The short lockdowns being done in other places seem highly unlikely to work. It's not comprehensive enough to stop the spread.

I think it can work as it will flatten the curve.

If only 60% of elderly people can realistically self isolate then there will be more beds for the rest of the population in the hospitals during the peak.

Then if later on, in 4 months some of them do fall ill, there will be beds for them as the peak period will have been drawn out and the Italian 'war zone, 60 new cases a day' disaster zone situation where capacity has been exceeded can be avoided.

It's not saying that in every situation 70 plus people can self isolate, but if 60% plus can, they would be much more likely to have beds available when they come out of isolation.

I agree this could work BUT I think it should be fully legal for any parents that want to remove their children from school to do so. This would make it possible for those who still need to work to do so, and keep the children safe and fed that wouldn't otherwise be. But then anyone wanting to lock themselves away are able to. People need a choice.

I don’t know whether the herd immunity approach is the correct one or not. I have been reading about this from the outset and I recall reading reports from China that there was a big question mark over whether people could be re-infected. I don’t think anyone knows the answer to this question.

However, I don’t see how shutting down everything now will work in the long term. We can’t eradicate this globally so, unless countries permanently close their borders, reinfection is bound to occur. If herd immunity works, the UK will be in a much better position than other countries by the end of the year. But yes, lots of people may die.

Someone upthread said he/she didn’t mind if we shut down for 2 years. How do people envisage long term lock downs happening? People seem to take on board that NHS staff will still have to work, but how do they envisage this happening if schools are shut? How do they think food will be produced, imported, moved about the country and delivered to them? What about essential services - gas, electricity, water, fire fighting etc?

And people talk about the economy as if it’s something relevant to rich toffs and irrelevant to everyone else. If most people don’t work, tax revenues go down. If tax revenues go down, everything collapses. And not just for now - for years afterwards.

My parents are in their mid-late 80s. If they get this, the pressures on the NHS will be such that they will be placed at the bottom of the list for treatment. This happened in China and, as I understand it, is happening in Italy now. The doctors will prioritise those who have the best chances of survival. This is a fact and, looking at it will cold common sense and without allowing emotions to cloud that, it has to be the correct way forward.

I read an email from a doctor in Italy saying that people over 60 (I’m in that category) and anyone with any pre-existing conditions (I’m in that category too) were not even being considered for the small number of ventilators available. It might be a spoof - who knows.

I’m not a fan of Johnson by any means and I don’t vote Tory. But I wouldn’t like to his position at all and he looks pretty exhausted or I’ll to me at the moment.

@SleepingStandingUp

70+ being told not to go out at all, potentially running out of food and meds, potentially having no one notice they're sick or have had an accident at home, feeling like they shouldn't call for hell because they've been told to isolate and fe they've been locked away out of sight out of mind

How is this any different to society now, though? Those who have help will likely continue to receive help... just in a different way. Separation while rooms are cleaned, packages left on the door, meds delivered etc. The rest of what you've described isn't anything new for the elderly population. Carers are still going to exist. Theyll just take more precautions. Ultimately, family will have to prioritise looking after relatives more than ever.

If anything, due to this going around, you might actually have more people keeping an eye on your elderly relatives. People are more likely to chip in and work together for the greater good in a pandemic, rather than complain about having to drive 2h to call in and see Susan.

@Sakura7 A lot of people in the UK also think the UK is insane. Me included. Bunch of total fuckwits running the country.

@PepePig

As I mentioned upthread, we have an 89 year old living with us, soon to be 90.

They potter between the living room and their room. I have to make all of their food and help them to wash; do their ironing etc

We’ve been keeping our son in his room and DH and I have put a telly in our bedroom. But, we can’t stop all interactions as we are also caring. It’s not too hard, it’s nearly damn impossible. Especially if you don’t have a particularly big home or additional bathrooms.
I can’t get wipes...I’m getting through an anti bacterial spray and tissue like you wouldn’t believe.
Then on top of all that, our relative pooh-poohs it; or says they want to die anyway (they are grieving their partner); or gets upset that they are “causing too much trouble” or hasn’t seen anyone all day.

I don’t think you realise exactly how difficult it is.

The short lockdowns being done in other places seem highly unlikely to work. It's not comprehensive enough to stop the spread.

Except it has worked in Asia.

The quest for herd immunity is unlikely to work as there is absolutely no way of knowing that it can be achieved. You'll just end up with 500,000 dead in the process.

If you want to limit the virus, you limit it's opportunities to spread from person to person. Closing schools is vital to achieve this.

The idea that you can protect the elderly by keeping them in a bubble while the virus runs rampant around them is bonkers.

So my aunt is 81 and has two adult disabled children in their 50’s - she has to go out shopping and fend for them! They are unable to count cash and shop. Plus she would go insane having to be inside for that length of time.

@Sakura7
The idea that you can protect the elderly by keeping them in a bubble while the virus runs rampant around them is bonkers.
The virus is running rampant outside right now
To not protect old people right now is bonkers

It's a pretty shitty attitude that too many of this thread seem to have. It's almost as if you're trying to say oh it's too "hard" so I'm not going to try

Yes, and as I said before, when it comes to the over 70s being asked to isolate for their own protection everyone is saying "oh they'll be lonely and bored" yet those same people are telling us we should close schools and parents should stay at home. Why is it not ok for the over 70s to isolate but perfectly fine for kids and parents to isolate?

Such a huge double standard. The best thing would be for the elderly and vulnerable to stay at home and protect themselves so the fit and healthy can keep the country running as usual. It makes zero sense for healthy individuals to stay indoors and the elderly to go out and about- services will collapse if that happens.

I’m in the over 70s age group. I am fit and take no medications. In fact I do volunteer work for the elderly. I live alone. However, if I am told to self isolate for weeks that is what I will do. We have to deal with this on a population level.

This is probably the first real international. crisis that younger posters I.e. under 60s have faced. I think you will find that most of the wartime and immediate post wartime generation will accept that measures are necessary for the greater good,

We must pull together on this. Please.