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Over 70s to self isolate

962 replies

Dodie66 · 14/03/2020 21:36

Over 70s are going to be told to self isolate even if they don’t have the virus and this will be coming in 5-20 days and last 4 months
www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/breaking-coronavirus-over-70s-told-21694397?fbclid=IwAR2k9MqPf7vOzNcnqfVroLXVp0sQjYRmihHKBiL9pvdhSi5780WpYkgFNnI

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MarshaBradyo · 15/03/2020 00:29

Oh it’s real then? Ok I’m pleased

Of course it’s hard but the CMO said the thing that will drive down rates is the hardest - Not seeing parents

tryingtoprep · 15/03/2020 00:30

Agree @Pluckedpencil Other countries are buying time. Time that might bring not only a vaccine but drugs that successfully treat it. Already there's an HIV drug that's shown promise.

Bool · 15/03/2020 00:30

@Pluckedpencil I don’t understand your post. Are you saying that putting the most vulnerable generation together with their grandchildren is the best way because it’s cosy?

Ginnymweasley · 15/03/2020 00:31

But 6 months of isolation would mean losing our income. The govt payouts are useless. I can fully see why people do not want 6 months of lockdown etc. I'm not saying that some lockdowns won't have to happen but honestly I am terrified of losing jobs and not been able to pay my bills and feed my children. People can be worried about both things. I don't want to lose my parents either. It's a fine line to tread I think.

Neome · 15/03/2020 00:33

So no more life saving blood transfusions for my Dad then.

StatisticallyChallenged · 15/03/2020 00:33

It's not confirmed - it was on ITV but it's not a government statement yet. Sounded like a soft launch via Robert Peston (he wrote the article on the website) to test the mood to me.

LangClegsInSpace · 15/03/2020 00:36

I don't want to overreact to this until it's verified by a named government source but if it's true then fucking hell!

Pubs and clubs might close for a bit, schools might close for a bit but over 70's must enter strict isolation for four months?

Fuck right off.

This would cause untold death and suffering to the most vulnerable people in our society just so we can carry on pretending nothing's happening for a few more days.

WHO have strongly warned against moral decay:

Dr Michael Ryan: Countries making their pandemic plans are well aware of the numbers and estimates in China for many weeks now. And I think it’s very important when we make the sometimes brutal calculations of herd immunity and delaying of spread and achieving herd immunity, and how maybe we should let the wave pass over us and then more people will be immune, and this will all go away, that there are many vulnerable people in our communities for this still will not go way.

And turning to face that fire is very important. Our elderly, our people with underlying conditions, people with cancer on chemotherapy and others, are precious members of our society, and the arithmetic of epidemiology, as I said, for me, in epidemiology we talk about the n, the size of the population we’re dealing with. We often say the n is the population of the country or the population of the world. So is n 7.8 billion? Well, for me, as a medical professional, n equals one. Every person matters.

Every single person matters and every community matters. And every society matters, every country matters. So I think we have to balance what are the epidemiological calculations with what are the really tragic and difficult scenes of family members worrying about particularly their elderly relatives, or spouses worrying about their partners who have cancer or are on chemotherapy. This is a very personal story, and it’s very easy to wrap it up in numbers and graphs and trends.

But in the end there are many, many people around the world who are concerned, and they’re particularly concerned about those in their families and communities who were very vulnerable. It is the duty of us all, governments, communities alike, to do as much as we can to protect those communities. And particularly to protect those vulnerable people amongst us. n equals 1.

Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus: I think this particular issue, especially about our senior citizens or the elderly is very, very important. If anything is going to hurt the world, it’s a moral decay. And not taking the death of the elderly or the senior citizens as a serious issue is one of the moral decays. And Mike has said it. Any individual, whatever age, any human being, matters. And it pains us to see, actually, in some places, when they want to move into mitigation, because the virus kills seniors or older people only.

That’s dangerous. Whether it kills a young person or an old person or a senior citizen, any country has an obligation to save that person. So that’s why we’re saying no white flag. We don’t give up. We fight. To protect our children, to protect our senior citizens. At the end of the day, it’s a human life. We cannot, I have said this many times by the way, we cannot say we care about millions when we don’t care about an individual person who may be senior or junior. Who may be young or old.

So that’s what WHO is saying. And for all countries, a comprehensive approach, a blended approach, an approach that can help contain this outbreak, is very important, because the death rate from this outbreak is high. We shouldn’t categorise it by young or senior. Of course, to understand the epidemiology it’s fine to do that. But for action I think every life matters. Every individual life matters. If we don’t care about one individual, whether it’s old or young, then we’re not serious. And that’s why we’re saying this is a moral decay, if we try to categorise it that way. A moral decay of the society.

www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/transcripts/who-audio-emergencies-coronavirus-press-conference-full-09mar2020-(1).pdf

onlinelinda · 15/03/2020 00:36

Do they mean vulnerable plus over 70 or only over 70? Or not clear?

StatisticallyChallenged · 15/03/2020 00:37

Neome without knowing your dad's specifics I understand they can give bloody transfusions at home in a lot of circumstances. Obviously it's not standard but maybe that would be the route taken.

Loppy10 · 15/03/2020 00:37

So curious how the boomer generation, after years of telling us how tough they are and how everyone else are snowflakes, are going mental at the idea of being asked to stay indoors for a bit to save their own lives. Truly a generation used to getting everything they want and not making sacrifices for the greater good.

StatisticallyChallenged · 15/03/2020 00:38

Onlinelinda I took it to be over 70 (as one group) and those who are otherwise vulnerable (being a second group)

onlinelinda · 15/03/2020 00:38

That's interesting. Thank you

Pluckedpencil · 15/03/2020 00:39

Currently the UK has just 6.6 critical care beds per 100,000 people, versus 12.5 for Italy.

If 80,000 get Coronavirus at once, which is not an unlikely number, and the minimum 10% need ICU, then that's 8,000 people needing breathing support and 6.6 beds. Do you think they'll all be over 70 really? I think the choices may be a little bit tougher than you currently imagine if you allow this peak all over the country.

MarshaBradyo · 15/03/2020 00:40

Plucked that’s why over 70 should isolate and not get it

TheHarryFormerlyKnownAsPrince · 15/03/2020 00:41

Loppy, you felt that was so important and profound that you had to repost it from upthread? Or did it just not get the rise you hoped for when you first goaded?

tryingtoprep · 15/03/2020 00:42

@Ginnymweasley I understand your fear. I'm worried too. Bills, rents, mortgages. The government needs to use taxpayer funds to help. Follow the lead of other countries. Mortgage holidays (there needs to be rent help too), sick pay for those who can't wfh. What's the point of an apparently strong economy if it's not used for the people who funded it? That's all of us - the public, we all pay tax whether income tax or VAT. There's millions available for white elephant projects like HS2. Divert the funds. People will need financial support anyway if they're ill and unable to work.

Dubdubdubtub · 15/03/2020 00:43

Most over 70s I know are as stubborn as mules including my parents and just wont do it.

Neome · 15/03/2020 00:43

Thank you StatisticallyChallenged

How about instead of locking up the over 70s all the fit young workers are required to live at their workplaces for the duration.

MarshaBradyo · 15/03/2020 00:44

They might not do it but they could be at the bottom of the list if they get CV and need care

They might still take the risk sure

HeIenaDove · 15/03/2020 00:45

This will also be classed as a very convienient change in circumstances if an age gap couple still on Pension Credit are separated and trigger a change over to Universal Credit.

HathorX · 15/03/2020 00:45

Hi, my mum is 83 and lives nearby but alone. I'm lucky she has all her marbles and isn't presently unwell but last year she had a run of health issues and I know that those could recur.

We're both strongly in favour of as many older people as possible self-isolating now. For weeks my mum has been prepping- she has food and supplies stocked

We both think that the NHS may become overwhelmed and anyway she would rather be stuck at home than stuck in a hospital.

She shares my Netflix account and has her Watchlist ready. She has her garden to do now it is spring. She went to the dentist and got her hearing aid batteries She is ready!

We already agreed we will stay in touch by whatsapp, sms etc. And I will chat to her by phone every day. I'll rally other family members to phone her frequently for some variety.

She is happy to sacrifice her clubs and shopping trips to protect her health. Surely that is simply rational?

Different if you need care, that is harder. I hope if people like my mum behave sensibly then when others fall ill there will be space in hospital.

Bool · 15/03/2020 00:48

Thank you @Hathorx ‘s mum

StatisticallyChallenged · 15/03/2020 00:48

I haven't been able to find the stats I saw before on intervention by age (I thought I'd seen some and that they broadly followed the behaviour of death stats by age). If that's the case the elderly are massively more likely to need those critical care beds. That 10% is not equally distributed across the age spectrum.

Nobody is pretending this would remove any strain but it would reduce it. Current death rate estimates by age group are 0.2% for under 40s vs 14.8% for 80+ (these are far from reliable I appreciate). If the intervention rate stats were broadly in line then that would give you roughly 74 80+ year olds needing ITU for every 1 under 40. That's a huge difference. Now as I say those proportions might not apply but the difference is significant.

StatisticallyChallenged · 15/03/2020 00:50

How about instead of locking up the over 70s all the fit young workers are required to live at their workplaces for the duration.

and their kids?

Pluckedpencil · 15/03/2020 00:52

@marshabradyo. A third of the ICU patients in Are 50-64. So let's finish the maths. A third of 8,000 is 2,666. And you still have only 6 beds. So that is 2,660 beds that you DON'T HAVE for people age 50-64 in ICU. I've done scratch cards with better odds. Can you see why locking up people's grandmas is not trying hard enough? Without the breathing support, you die. Your body doesn't have time to recover. You just drown. That is why Europe is locking down whole countries.

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