*DO IT ALL* says the W.H.O. Director General

[Barracker]

www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/europe-is-now-the-epicenter-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-who-says.html

Tedros said countries need to take a comprehensive approach to try to fight the pandemic.

"Not testing alone, not contact tracing alone, not quarantine alone, not social distancing alone, do it all," he said.
"Any country that looks at the experience of other countries with large epidemics and thinks that won't happen to us is making a deadly mistake, it can happen to any country."

We're not doing it all.

Cases:
On February 29th, two weeks ago, Italy had confirmed 1,128 cases. The previous day, they had 889.
Yesterday the UK had 798. In today's figures I would imagine we may see 1000-1100. If this comes to pass, this suggests our recorded case numbers today, March 14th, are comparable to Italy's numbers on Feb 29th.

Deaths:
On February 25th, Italy had 11 deaths.
On 26th, they had 12.
On 27th, 17
On 28th, 21
On 29th, 29

Our deaths yesterday were 11.
Our death rate is tracking perhaps 18 days behind Italy.

In those 18 days, deaths in Italy have risen from 11, like ours yesterday, to 1266.

We are 14-18 days behind Italy.
They are taking stricter measures to control this than the UK.
Their health system is already overwhelmed.
Doctors are deciding who will get ventilated, and who cannot.
Triage of who is most likely to survive is determining who gets treatment, and who does not.
Their graph still shows exponential growth.

Here are Italy's graphs.
I'll post the UK graphs in the next post.

Here are the graphs for the UK.

I was wondering if WHO could overrule our government for the greater good of world health.

Is this possible?

According to YouGov, 25% of people surveyed have not taken ANY measures to prevent coronavirus. No extra washing hands or anything.

That could mean that 25% of people are not taking this seriously. They do not want the schools closed or mass gatherings shut down, because for them, this is nothing more than an inconvenience and not something they wish to worry themselves with.

My friend said to me ‘look, I’ve got four kids and I can’t think of anything worse than spending the next four weeks with them running around with nothing to do. The summer holidays are bad enough. I really hope they don’t close the schools.’
Really? That’s why?

I mean, ok, I respect the argument about the economy or perhaps the worry about work, but really, there are people out there, who just don’t want their own kids at home. Sad.

From comparisons made to SARS and similar outbreaks there is a hope that it can be contained enough that the virus will burn out by itself. I agree that as this virus seems more infectious (although less deadly) that seems unlikely.

Some countries (South Korea) have contained the virus quite successfully using high levels of testing and technology for contact tracing.

The whole concept of flattening the curve seems reasonable, slowing the spread so there is more chance of better treatment until a vaccine is developed but the government seem to be taking very few steps to actually achieve this. The fact is that no other country is blatantly saying we'll have to let lots of you die without trying to do anything to contain the cause.

It will be interesting to see what happens in countries that have taken very early preventative steps. I would say that it's very important to try to prevent the virus from spreading to developing countries whose fragile healthcare systems will be overwhelmed.

@Haworthia Absofuckinglutely.

Comparisons to SARS?

It is SARS???

I should correct one of my posts, I said "death rate" when I was intending to say number of deaths.

It’s name is SARS-COV-2.

Covid-19 is a person with symptoms.

The whole group are called Coronavirus.

Google it.

Sorry I meant comparisons to the 2003 SARS outbreak. This is a type of SARS virus but it's not the same one as was around in 2003.

I feel that the WHO message about not shutting schools etc was aimed at Britain. All I thought was, Boris, you incompetent knob

I very genuienyl think we should shut everythinmg down. This whole idea of too hard and takes too long.... i have chronic asthma and have been hospitl=alised twice in the past 2 years. Yet my office is saying 'the government says' and I would be going rogue if I stayed at home. Literally several times in the day i am looking at the news internally begging the government to shut things down. I am 48. i have 2 children, one of whom has a range of needs. Am i one of the ones to be sacrificed if the NHS is overwhelmed and they have to make decisions? I am scared.

@girlflieshome Can you say you have a fever or cough so are self isolating as per Government advice? At least buys you a week to consider what to do?

I am truly considering that all. It goes against the grain because it feels like skiving, but I know my office does not give a shit about me.

I was begging the schools to be shut also, but when i mentioned this my line manager said; 'Your DH works from home. Why will the schools being shit make a difference to you?'

i have stewed about this all day.

I think we are being too cavalier. On BBC radio 4 today they said the poor doctor in Wuham who raised the alarm and then died raised the alarm a mere 11 weeks ago. 11 weeks. (Granted I have not checked the stats, i am merely reporting) This thing is moving so fast. we are stupid if we think we can outsmart a virus this new and unknown by simply carrying on.

@Purplewhitelie this what I asked earlier, nobody answered.

Can the WHO overrule UK government for the benefit of world health?

excuse typos.

It is not skiving. You know that. I would never use something like this as an opportunity to skive. But since the Government is doing nothing, you have to do what you can to protect yourself and your family.
I am also keeping my kids off school on Monday. I am going to take their temperature on Sunday, tell them it is high, so they have to self isolate for a week at home. This is so they don't have to lie to friends on social media about why they are off. I think after a week so many kids will be off that I can be open about why I am keeping them off, without fines etc.

@buttonmoonb4tea WHO are an advisory and co-ordinating body. No they can't over rule Governments.
That is why they are careful in what they say and how they say it. They have to influence. They can't dictate.

I think that idea has merits all

Will consider.

Stupid thing is we are both client facing AND can easily work from home. Not essential services by any means.

when i say client facing I mean we can easily transfer that to phones or e-mail. There is simpyl no need for us to be at work. i have already done a couple of hours this morning 'catching up'. Physically turning up at the office is for show more than anything. i have office stationery at home so i can print letters. It is ridiculous really.

@DBML I think a lot of people are refusing to acknowledge that this is even happening out of fear.

I wonder if there’s an element of bravado, even, with those survey results - “Am I washing my hands more? Naaaah! This is a load of bollocks!”

Even my Mum said she was reluctant to stockpile food because then she’d be acknowledging that things really are that worrying.

Seriously considering keeping my children at home next week. I’m sure no one else I know would. Mums on the school run just keep joking that their children would kill each other and they can’t bear the thought.

There is defintiely bravado.

i think more people than they will admit are waiting for a shutdown, and will receive it with relief.

I am not stockpiling, but my regualr shopping habits have changed in that I have bought some meat to stash in the freezer and have bought some tinned veg and tinned fruit. This is SO outside my usual buying pattern. I bought 8 tins of different veg and fruit. I do not think I have ever bought tinned mushrooms in my life.

Yes I realise WHO can only influence.

But we are looking increasingly stupid which looks bad to trade and the monetary market.

That’s just my opinion of course.