Is Johnson doing the right thing?

[jasjas1973]

Is he? i've changed my view on this recently.
Do we just have to accept some very harsh truths?
Getting some very clever people to advise him and judging by how successful partial lockdowns in other European countries have gone, these don't seem to work.

We haven't got an NHS that is anything like as well equipped/staffed as say an Italy, France even Spain and they are not coping, maybe he is just (for once) being honest?

Interesting that Germany is using similar tactic to UK

in what way? Most of the states are closing schools.

I don't think the Dutch have though.

And they've shut down the majority of the public transport network.

No, Johnson is doing the opposite to what all other countries (except the US under Trump) are doing.

Johnson is doing the opposite to what the WHO recommends.

I know who I trust. And it isn't Johnson.

Compare the two pictures here:

twitter.com/MilenaZP_/status/1238370728489226240

Personally, I'd take Ireland's approach over Johnson's approach any day now.

Or compare the two pictures here, if you want to understand why Johnson is doing what he's doing.

twitter.com/Ujames1978/status/1238489388134346752

It's not because he cares about the ordinary people. Quite the opposite.

I think possibly he is doing the right thing, but it’s a big gamble due to the following:

1. There isn’t enough evidence on immunity after infection for this virus to really inform that decision. So aiming for herd immunity might not be a sensible strategy. We don’t know how long any such immunity lasts, what % of people who are infected get that immunity.
2. There is already some expert opinion that there is more than one strain of this, so it’s difficult to know if having had one strain makes you immune from the other. Then there is the possibility of further strains emerging.
3. We don’t know when a vaccine will be available. Twelve months to production would be a miracle, eighteen would be more likely. I guess there would be some sense of urgency to expedite the process, but equally an effective vaccine also had to be developed, not just tested for safety and produced.
4. At some point people might object to being treated like livestock- the terminology of “herd” immunity is liable to that.
5. This is all very “don’t shoot til you see the whites of their eyes”/“hold the line”. It relies on people self-enforcing discipline in a way that isn’t now normal. And it won’t work as a strategy unless the vast majority of people do toe the line.

There is no evidence for immunity from coronavirus virus after infection.

There is no evidence herd immunity will apply in this case

As much as I dislike Boris Johnson I think he’s taking the correct stance here.

As we all know, BJ has no specialism or expertise if his own in a wide range of areas - and he acknowledges this. As a result, this makes him quite a good leader (I reluctantly admit) because he defers decisions to experts.

I know that listening to trained, knowledgeable experts is unfashionable in this post-fact modern world, but it has its benefits.

As one of the later states to be impacted by coronaflu we can learn from others. Closing schools and blocking big gatherings clearly doesn’t help as the virus spreads anyway due to the unnoticeable symptoms in the majority of people.

It is very worrying nonetheless. But survival rate is high and I believe that overreaction will be more damaging than letting it flow through society. I know this sounds like a careless attitude, but despite a lack of vaccine, it is still predicted to kill far less people globally than flu, malaria, TB, HIV and suicide. (amongst others).

It’s the panic that will damage society more than anything else.

IT's not protecting the economy. Doing what China did - preventing massive spread, getting it under control. Short term economic pain for long term economic gain. Having 1million plus extra deaths beyond what they'd get if they did what others are doing and the entire nation grieving and the NHS on it's knees won't bring economic wellbeing. And that's what Boris is going for.

It's not a well thought out strategy, it's not based on the best science and evidence (WHO have all but said this)

What it is is a bunch of public schoolboys who have spent their whole lives getting away with being mediocre and not very bright by being super confident about how great they are, good at presenting themselves (Eton schooling) and convinced they're where they are because of talent not money, and sure of their own infallability. Cushioned by wealth, they've never had to really deal with the consequences of really not being that good - until now.

Trump is the same just in a different culture - his wealth has prevented him from having to deal with real world consequences until now. Over inflated egos, sure they're better than the rest of us and good at PR. That's about it. That's not what we need now.

Well said.

As we all know, BJ has no specialism or expertise if his own in a wide range of areas - and he acknowledges this. As a result, this makes him quite a good leader (I reluctantly admit) because he defers decisions to experts.

So why is he ignoring the WHO recommendations?

I wold have more faith if there was evidence that they are doing all they can to increase ICU beds. If that means turning normal hospital beds into ICU (though obviously i have no idea if that is even feasible).

As we all know, BJ has no specialism or expertise if his own in a wide range of areas - and he acknowledges this. As a result, this makes him quite a good leader (I reluctantly admit) because he defers decisions to experts.

Extraordinary. What has he ever done that makes him a good leader?

His home secretary, previously sacked for sneaking off to make deals with Israel, repeatedly confuses terrorism and counter-terrorism. His new intelligence head spent millions on a ferry service that didn't exist. He seems to be deferring much decision making to brexiteer sloganeer Dominic Cummings - Are these what you call experts now?

@StatisticallyChallenged prisons that work, work because the prisoners respect the staff. So doing a form of lock down could easily work. Though it seems that businesses like sporting events are left to take matter into their own hands and shut down.

Happily stating many loved ones will die does a competent leader make.
I think the government’s response has been slow shambolic and confused . Why let a plane full of Madrid fans in for a football match days before the football league has banned all games .....
He had the opportunity to lead by example when Nadine got sick but has instead carried on regardless without a clue!

Its not possible to create the number of intensive care beds.

Chris whippy suggested best case scenario 20% of the population infected. Based on the his dont worry it will be fine he gave as a best case scenario, we will need something in the region of 200,000 ICU.

We have 4000. Running at about 80-90% capacity prior to coronavirus

And we're doing nothing to slow the transmission rate.

China built two new hospitals and emptied most of the other hospitals in the region.

And locked down everyone.

@LizzieMacQueen they don't have the staff. You can have as many beds as you can make up but if you don't have the staff then you can't keep the beds open.

I should have said Does NOT a competent leader make
Pressed button too quick !

"I wold have more faith if there was evidence that they are doing all they can to increase ICU beds. If that means turning normal hospital beds into ICU (though obviously i have no idea if that is even feasible)."

They likely will do this but there's a knock on effect - people will be dying from things that are usually preventable (heart attacks, cancer etc.)
The loss will be felt elsewhere if not directly from the corona virus.

What is an ELE

Extinction Level Event - see Deep Impact for reference.

The 1918 Spanish flu virus didn't rear its head in future years, after it killed 50m (minimum) people, Cummings is dead keen on his history! so this is doubtless what he has told Johnson... BJ is in Cummings pocket, it is he that got BJ into no10.

As for bojo being a good leader? he is a populist and once the slogans become meaningless, he is found lacking... like all other populists.

Its probably now too late to change anything, if virulogists are correct & there is 10k CV carriers in the UK then that will 100s of 1000s within the week.

@littlelittlelittle I'm not so convinced, I do get your point re prisons but I think this is a very different situation. It may be that they are waiting until the point where polls tell them that public opinion is strongly behind it so that it is respected? My personal feeling is right now the public support is not there for the police force we have (and even the armed forces which could be used) to be able to really enforce it.

I prefer WHO to Boris on this. Sorry Boris.

Bloody hell @jasjas1973 I agree with you completely

That’s how bad it’s become!

@Bearbehind Strange times Bear, strange times lol!

Take care and lets hope we all come out on the other side......

He is not doing the right thing. He is sacrificing the poor, the vulnerable and the old.

My daughter is in a school where her friend is currently sick. 21 days after going to Milan - on Monday she started to cough as did her father. Family immediately self isolated. But she's been in school the last week- her mam thought that 2 weeks and you're clear!. The mother has contacted 111 , the school, the gp- the school won't close, they won't deep clean, the gp/111/anyone(!) won't test them. So no "confirmed" cases. It's all good. Keep calm and carry on ffs.

My husband is immunosuppressed. I can't keep dd off school becaise I'll be fined. My workplace have released a statement that any confirmed cases will be paid in full whilst off. BUT they won't test us!!!! So until you are hospital admission level, ie near death, They won't test. So I can't stay off. Even if I'm ill.

The true figures are hidden. The poor will go to work (like me) and we will die. And Boris won't care.