Worried about coronavirus thread 24

[ofwarren]

Sorry everyone, I was watching that shambles of a press conference

mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN20Z209?__twitter_impression=true
'Italy has abandoned us': Brother trapped with sister's body in coronavirus shutdown

The brother of a woman who died at home after contracting coronavirus had to issue a desperate appeal on social media to persuade Italian authorities to come and collect her body.

Teresa Franzese, 47, lived with her family in the southern city of Naples and started to show the symptoms of coronavirus last week. Her health deteriorated rapidly and she died on Saturday before the results of a test for the disease was known.

Given the uncertainty, undertakers and even the local hospital refused to pick up the body.

Sunshinegirl82 As Lweji said.

Also the more people about who have it and spreading it will put your loved ones more at risk.

And given how there is no evidence that you catching will give you later immunity. Then how is you catching it going to protect your loved ones?

I've been reading up and I cannot find any info on how those that have died here came in to contact with the virus. Has anyone seen anything about this?

How are they developing a vaccine if there is no immunity? A vaccine works by letting you "catch" the virus without catching it.

It cannot be contained. It's done. It's out there. We have to get our heads round that.

Just read the various Italian news reports (which aren't nearly as many) on Teresa Franzese.
Epileptic, began to feel ill 24 hours before dying. Only when the family called the emergency services because she had died did they (family) suggest it might be Coronavirus. Ambulance didn't have testing kit so left the body at home for 24 hours.

This was all 5 days ago in the Italian press and hasn't been on the news or anything so presume has been dealt with. Sounds unlikly to be Coronavirus to me if they didn't call an ambulance till she was dead.

Overnight, my DHs boss has been confirmed as having the COVID - 19 virus.

Boss has been told to self isolate at home for 2 weeks. As the company had taken a proactive stance 2 weeks ago to allow those who could, work from home, many did including my DH. This proactivity has most definitely prevented a large number of others being infected by him.

People/businesses need to take proactive action if they are able to. Stay safe and be your own best advocate.

I haven't seen anything about where the deceased contracted the virus. They seem to have not been abroad, apart from the man who died at North Manchester Hospital, and had no known contact with positive cases. That's what's worrying people. There is obvious community transmission.

Sunshinegirl82 you are wrong to believe the fatalism from the UK's advisers saying that it cannot be contained therefore we should not take any action at this stage.

This is from the World Health Organisation within the last 24 hours (yes, I know, they are silly foreigners unlike our good 'ol British experts):

We are deeply concerned that some countries are not approaching this threat with the level of political commitment needed to control it.

Let me be clear: describing this as a pandemic does not mean that countries should give up. The idea that countries should shift from containment to mitigation is wrong and dangerous.

This is a controllable pandemic. Countries that decide to give up on fundamental public health measures may end up with a larger problem, and a heavier burden on the health system that requires more severe measures to control.

You can’t fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. That means robust surveillance to find, isolate, test and treat every case, to break the chains of transmission.

To save lives we must reduce transmission. That means finding and isolating as many cases as possible, and quarantining their closest contacts. Even if you cannot stop transmission, you can slow it down and protect health facilities, old age homes and other vital areas – but only if you test all suspected cases.

It cannot be contained. It's done. It's out there. We have to get our heads round that

either you are out to push the nudge theory. Or you are a good example of the nudge theory working.

I have suspected for a while the nudge theory is being used to make sure the population get to a point of just shrugging shoulders at the astronomical death rate that will come from allowing unchecked spread of the virus, based on no evidence of herd immunity coming out of it at the other end.

@sunshinegirl82
You make some really strange posts.
Are you disputing they are creating a vaccine?
Do you think there would be a race to create one if it was impossible?
You do realise that the flu mutates too yeah? And that we have an annual vaccine?

I don't get your point to be honest.
You seem almost pleased that it's 'out there'.

@Bearbehind , you are entirely 100% wrong about there being no point testing. Read the WHO statement yesterday.

Second, detect, prevent and treat.
You can’t fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. That means robust surveillance to find, isolate, test and treat every case, to break the chains of transmission.
Third, reduce and suppress.
To save lives we must reduce transmission. That means finding and isolating as many cases as possible, and quarantining their closest contacts. Even if you cannot stop transmission, you can slow it down and protect health facilities, old age homes and other vital areas – but only if you test all suspected cases.

This is how South Korea, who rolled out an enormous and quick testing programme, and aggressively contact traced and quarantined cases, has done an amazing job of saving lives and breaking transmission. From large initial numbers, their growth has slowed.

Nearly everyone else is on Italy's trajectory.

Please stop saying it. You are wrong.

I can't make head nor tail of the government's underwhelming response. Given their general incompetence and massive headcount already on the homeless and the poor of this country, it's hard to give them the benefit of the doubt when they are not following WHO advice. I know Whitty is well regarded but they seemvery out of step with the WHO on this.

I have zero time for the behavioural science crap , lying/nudging might win you elections but people will not be "bored" of missing footie matches when they are dying in hundreds. Yes, we need to change how we live for this, for now. (We need to for climate emergencies also. Or we die. It's just a fact.)

I think everyone who voted tory in 2010,2015, 2017 or 2019 should take a long hard look at themselves. Even IF the government did everything absolutely right from now on, our starting point is a broken unprepared understaffed service run on exhausted goodwill. BMA said we were leaving ourselves exposed to pandemics back in 2018.

Mainly I feel ok. Then had a bad night. The death rate for HCPs in countries that get overwhelmed is high. Don't want to bury my friends. Don't want to have to choose which patient gets ITU when both need it, don't know how I'm going to cope with that. Having my mask fit test monday. A&E quiet so far. (Quietest week since 2018, still over 100% capacity) Italian and Chinese doctor reports harrowing. Telling myself to be strong be strong be strong. Off today going for a walk in the woods.

Sorry, meant to say, leaving the body at home would be totally normal for a "normal" death. Funerals are done 24 hours later.
If it was 5 days ago approx them it's possible the Coronavirus fear the family had slipped through the net (or the HCPs in attendance told them that you don't drop dead of it in 24 hours) because the national lockdown and banning of funerals (in church /mass gatherings) came into force the same evening.

@Sunshinegirl82 Vaccines involve developing an inactivated version of the virus which can be used to develop immunity.
This occurs as the immune system develops the ability to identify the virus and destroy it before it has taken hold.
A very simplistic analogy is that its like giving police a photograph of a wanted man.

What I want too see is the evidence that once you've had it you are immune.

There is no such evidence yet is there?

if I'm going to be sacrificed for the greater good. I need to see the evidence that it will work. Not that it would reassure my DC,DH and family I'd leave behind

It doesn’t work like that - we don’t get those kind of choices

What’s stopping you going into self isolation if you personally think it’s what needs to be done?

@squid4 Thank you 🙏 For all you are doing!

Well let’s hope it does not mutate to survive and starts picking off younger ones!

Right...

Viruses mutate at a given rate due to faulty replication machinery. Some mutate faster than others.
This one is a RNA virus, which means that it will have a high mutation rate. Not sure how high.

Mutations can change or not how the viruses present to the immune system. Most mutations don't.

Another key factor is recombination. Most new variants are generated by recombination. This is a factor when there are enough variants in circulation and people get infected with different strains.

This is still not the case, because the virus is still young in humans.

Viral survival depends on transmission rates. If it passes more frequently before showing symptoms, or when symptoms are mild throughout the illness, then those variants will spread.
Serious cases that are isolated quickly are less likely to pass to new people.

This is a process of selection. If we continue with containment measures for those with symptoms, the milder versions will become more frequent.
So, the disease is likely to become progressively milder in the population.

If transmission isn't stopped at hospitals, then it i bad news. Variants that kill can spread in the population.

This is one reason that it's important to slow down the spread and not overwhelm the health services.

Just pointing out that at the moment the variation in outcome seems more due to different susceptibility between people than to variation in the virus.

"you don't drop dead of it in 24 hours"

We don't know that the occasional person with certain comorbidities won't die very suddenly

There were reports of a few very sudden deats in the street in China, but we simply don't know if they were true, or the circumstances

We can't definitely say something can't haopen, or must always happen, because as we keep reminding ourselves, none of us - afaik - are experts in this field
(and even the experts sometimes differ)

squid 💐
Everyone must admire the doctors & med staff putting themselves at known higher risk, to care for the rest of us

Morning all.

This govt's approach is supposedly research-driven, science driven. That's what they've told us. So why now have they moved to not testing people apart from those in hospitals? How is that useful, it's not gathering the data needed for analysis, both now at when all this is done, for the future? I feel they are saying one thing and doing another.

Please stop saying it. You are wrong.

The arrogance on this thread astounds me sometimes

No - I’m not necessarily wrong.

The whole problem is that no one knows what right or wrong at the moment

Even the ‘experts’ can’t agree what is right or wrong

What we do know is we have limited resources so must use them to the best of our ability

So far we’ve tested nearly 30,000 people with only a 0.02% positive rate and cases are spread far and wide, even to the Shetland Islands, so there’s little logic in the spread patterns

That testing uses resources

There is certainly a logic in focusing on dealing with existing cases and freeing up capacity whilst telling people to manage their own mild symptoms, whether they have it or not

@CrunchyCarrot I agree that that’s exactly what they are doing

Because they want to hide what is going on.

From us and from the rest of the world.

Of course I'm not disputing they are making a vaccine! People keep stating that you don't become immune and you can catch it time and time again.

That cannot be true if they are developing a vaccine can it? A vaccine works by creating immunity therefore immunity must be possible.

I just think people need to shift their thinking away from the idea that everyone can avoid catching this. We can't.

There normal is, some level of immune response to any antigen in anyone with a healthy immune system.

People die when the immune response (antibodies) is overcome by the antigen. IMMUNITY then depends on retaining the antibodies or memory of the antibodies after the disease has been defeated, for next time

Problem with a lot of viruses is that they mutate, and often rapidly, so your body needs to develop a new antibody to fight it every time it comes into contact with it. Is why flu vaccines took so long to develop and don’t give 100% protection

I've posted a few times on these threads, I have a serious respiratory condition and a diagnosis of respiratory failure.

I've taken what measures I can, stopped going out, looking after my grandson, having a life outside my home, I walk my dogs at 4:30am and 11:00pm and will continue to do so.

I've had advice from my respiratory team they've been candid and told that from what they understand of the virus I would be unlikely to survive if I caught it. I though I could keep myself safe until yesterday.

Now I feel that I'm going to be collateral damage in Boris Johnson's eugenics experiment, it will certainly reduce the burden I place on the NHS in the long term BUT I want to live, I have a family, children, siblings, a husband, grandchildren, an elderly DM and haven't been hospitalised due to my respiratory condition for over a year.

Because the testing criteria has changed I won't even get a heads up when Covid-19 is rampant in my area.

I work hard at keeping myself well and enjoy every minute that I have and now none of that matters because I'm just going to be a statistic in this apocalyptic pandemic because our country is being governed by power crazed arseholes who value nothing other than their own bank balances and the glorification they get from the rest of the establishment.