Worried about coronavirus thread 24

[ofwarren]

Sorry everyone, I was watching that shambles of a press conference

I don't think the government response is about epidemiology , but about NHS preparedness in a cocked up by various governments NHS. We have half the critical care beds than Italy , and need time to prepare.

@VivaLeBeaver the press and politicians have a lot to answer for. Make no mistake, it's not 'mild' for most. Pneumonia I believe is classified as mild, requiring ventilation is 'severe' and 'critical' means multi organ failure.

I really hope your friends daughter get better soon. Frightening times

I'm late coming back to the thread, but in case anyone is interested:

Why do Germany have so many less deaths than other countries with a similar number of cases? What are they doing differently?

Germany was far more rigorous about contact tracing and has tested diligently. So their numbers of infected people are more accurate and comprehensive, and their number of deaths therefore looks like a smaller percentage of the infected. Conversely, other countries probably have higher numbers of infected people than they realise.

But even Germany has found it impossible to track the hidden spread of the virus via asymptomatic people: they thought they had entirely ringfenced their original Munich cluster, but it turns out to have been the source of the Italy outbreak.

*daughter's friend

quartz all French schools will be closed from Monday. Until further notice. Macron announced it this evening. And we had no warning it was coming (teacher). Tomorrow and this weekend are going to be a mad scramble to get home learning up and running.

ofwarren throwing my thanks to you for the chronological cv threads too. Its much better than millions of different threads and is a source of helpful information.

Isn't it like a dam that's about to overflow? I feel like BJ and co have accepted a relatively high amount of collateral damage (avoidable deaths, drowned villages) in the interests of letting a lot of excess water out fast and hard and getting it over with. Meanwhile China, having inadvertently let crazy amounts of water out by accident, have since made superhuman efforts to close all the big sluice gates that were letting too much out too fast. Now they've finally got the flow back down to nearly zero they're very gradually opening up the gates again and seeing what happens (and they're poised to shut them again as necessary to keep the amounts manageable). I'm sure they are expecting more outbreaks - people surely can't think that the concept of herd immunity hasn't occurred to the Chinese? I imagine everyone is having the idea of reaching herd immunity in the way they prefer (and countries will differ on this, and what's best for individuals might be quite different than what leaders choose for the country as a whole).

How quickly do we think the UK govt would do a u-turn on all this? I mean, if over the weekend the situation changed for the worse, would Boris rethink our current strategy ASAP?

ofwarren I really appreciate your updates, please dont stop

JUST IN: The Mormon Church is suspending gatherings worldwide due to coronavirus
The spectator

@eeeyoresmiles actually China was hoping to contain it so it doesn’t become a pandemic, and that it doesn’t linger around every winter like seasonal flu. Sadly it requires all countries’ effort to achieve this and many didn’t think of it as a big deal until now...

Anyone else starting to feel like we are in some grand social experiment? Everywhere else seems to be taking more drastic measures. Even many places in the US are shutting down schools.

I fear for our brave NHS staff.

Spain shuts ALL schools as cases jump 28% in a day t.co/DMpN54beXd
Daily mail

Argentina, Bolivia, Peru curb travel, public gatherings over coronavirus fears t.co/nZ0fZ179eA t.co/fre2apIKdz
Reuters

“The issue is not whether you or I might get infected at a football match, it’s who we go on to meet.”

Fmr Health Sec Jeremy Hunt says it's “surprising and concerning” the UK has not banned events “when we have just four weeks before we get to the stage Italy is at”

#Newsnight t.co/1zEYzRwjPI

onlinelinda I imagine the NHS will collapse under this coming catastrophe. Those who will be working extremely hard, thank you in advance, you will undoubtedly go beyond the expectations of your roles.

We’re going to need some enormous counselling provisions when this is over, for everyone.

defthand it feels like we are being left out in the dark. Is this a sick form of payback for Brexit?

Events will overtake the Government, they are being boxed in by others reaction. The voices of non Government scientists will short circuit the badly advised gameplay applied to the current response. It will turn quickly.

Thank you to everyone who is naming a source for the evidence they are stating -it really helps with sifting the data.

@wethlam I agree

All New Mexico public schools cancelled for the next 3 weeks - KOB4

There is a lot of sense in the arguments about timing. The CSO seems to think we are 4 weeks behind Italy so if we locked down now, we could be looking at two to three months of quarantine.

That's twelve weeks. It's a long time, especially for elderly people living alone and households that have children under 18, particularly for lone parents.

You also have to remember that a lot of people live in flats and shared houses. Two to three months of home quarantine in those kinds of circumstances would likely be unmanageable.

Thank you so much to all NHS staff and their families and everyone else on the front line with this. We'll be cheering you on and avoiding bothering you or creating any other work for you.

Number of coronavirus cases could have been cut by 66% if China had acted just one WEEK earlier, study claims t.co/M3ccEog50U
Daily mail

Verdicts of experts on UK government's new coronavirus measures t.co/r2ZjVwqGyk
The guardian