So surely now is the moment for the UK to shut down?

[littleblackdress04]

All the info I have read online indicates that the UK is probably 2 weeks behind Italy in terms of infection. So rather than wait until the horse has proverbially bolted, wouldn’t it make more sense to shut down now and stop a massive spread of coronavirus?

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/all.14238
Extended study of 140 patience.

hmmm, see i think "lockdown" is probably a bit OTT right now as in we only have 200 cases. I would support it if there was some kind of definitive knowledge that it WOULD absolutely stop the spread of this, and it WOULD be limited to say 2 weeks. Its not because i have a buzzing social life (id not be fussed if i wasnt ever allowed to the cinema or a concert again, tbh) but its because if schools/nurseries are closed, i cant work.

I need to work to pay my mortgage and feed my child. We wouldnt survive on only DHs wage for very long, especially if we have to pay FT nursery fees which we obv wouldnt be able to use on top of that.

2 weeks i think most people could handle, and would support, its this indefinite "ooh we dunno might be months"

if it is months, i'd hedge my bets that more people would die of starvation, than coronavirus.

People are going to end up homeless, and unemployed unless this is handled very well.

*300

For those quoting swine flu as a reason not to worry - this is more serious than swine flu for a couple of important reasons:

1. The R0 of the coronavirus is higher. It's more infectious. H1N1 was about as infectious as the normal flu. Coronavirus is estimated to have an R0 of between 2 and 3.

1. Swine flu mortality rate was likely higher than flu, but not as high as the mortality rates we're seeing for coronavirus.

1. Coronavirus is a novel virus - there is no immunity whatsoever in the human population.

That said, I think the government is correct to be led by the experts, who are guided by one principle aim - to mitigate and slow the impact of the virus, and crucially, to reduce the peak impact and spread it over a longer period. They are clearly working with some sophisticated model behind the scenes, and the impact of certain actions (e.g. school closures) will be factored into this model, with an eye for maximizing the timing impact.

I appreciate your concern as a mother of a child who is at risk but most people aren’t. Instead of causing major disruptions prematurely we should be focusing on protecting those in at risk categories who will actually get very ill rather than the general population. Mass social isolation is premature but ensuring the business and schools are forced to allow WFH/annual leave requests for those who are at serious risk of have unavoidable contact with those at serious risk would be a proportionate measure at this point.

The reality is that if we institute the kind of measures a lot of people here are promoting too soon we won’t be able to hold out long enough to save ourselves from the worst. A prolonged period of lockdown would lead to economic disaster. Many business would collapse and many people would loose their jobs. Most people have no idea how close they are to loosing their job at any given time, even for large businesses a few months without cash flow would be a death knell.

it’s interesting to me that the areas in which there have been the most cases are the areas that have introduced 5g
🤣🤣🤣

I do love a good conspiracy theory.

My dd works in a pub, she would not be able to pay the rent if she did not work

I'm not quite clear why the OP thinks they could manage the situation any better than PHE. Are you better qualified than all of the statisticians/epidemiologists whose job this is?

Thought not.

I think there is a middle ground between full lock down and everyone going about their daily routine.

Those that can work from home are able to and if a company can’t have everyone at home they work with as few people as possible

Of course there will be a lot of companies that can’t do this but I think equally a lot of companies could.

I would also like for people to take this a lot more seriously.

Those that say they are not bothered I wonder what your judgement is on people who don’t inoculate their children.

OTOH we have people up in arms against anti vaxers because people with weakened immune system will be put at risk but then when it comes to this disease they are not bothered about people with weakened immune systems being put at risk

The middle ground is what is happening in Italy.

According to this we are second only to the US in terms of preparedness with respect to dealing with epidemics and pandemics.

Let's let the experts do their jobs.

www.ghsindex.org/

Personally, I think the focus should not be on stopping the spread of the virus as that seems to be inevitable, but to focus on supporting people in at-risk groups.

Identify people who are at-risk (some sort of doctor's note scheme perhaps?)

Allow at-risk children to stay home Give their parents funding and protect their jobs through legislation if they have to stay off work

Allow at-risk workers to stay home, give them funding and protect their jobs through legislation.

If parents of children who are not at risk want to keep them home, they should be allowed. There are so many resources available for parents to access online which children could use to keep up their education in the meantime.

I don't see how this virus is going to be contained amongst the general population. We need to buy time for a vaccine and/or effective treatment to be developed.

Obviously these are expensive solutions and may not be possible, but a worldwide recession on an unprecedented scale will cost a lot more

The middle ground is what is happening in Italy

No it isn’t. As far as I am aware Italy didn’t encourage businesses to have people work from home and restrict their movement before it got completely out of hand.

The only reason they have done it now is because the hospitals can’t cope.

But the infection rate in Italy is rising much, much quicker than in the UK. Added to which Italy are struggling to maintain the whole lockdown anyway as people are refusing to comply. And the problem is that when you have an entire population refusing to comply the situation is unmanageable.

And again, a lot of experts suggesting that China went into lockdown far too soon and that there will be another spike in China.

Ah Bool I thought you were asking a genuine question about sources. My mistake. They are not the only two sources suggesting we need to be more proactive. They are not only quoted in the British media.
Italian doctors wrote to their European counterparts last week suggesting how to prepare and what steps to take. Their suggestions haven't been followed.
There are numerous UK experts suggesting containment including doctors, biologists, epidemiologists, virulogists. The WHO also suggests it.
I know people joked that Britain didn't care about experts any more but it's actually breathtaking to see it play out in real time.

It is not, and never was a complete lockdown as we understand it in English due to Prevent guidelines etc.
People are working.
People are shopping
People are going for a walk
Bars are open until 6pm
Buses, trains are running, so are domestic flights and some international ones.
Dentists are dealing with teeth.

Leisure is curtailed. Sure.
Kids are doing online classes.

I know people joked that Britain didn't care about experts any more but it's actually breathtaking to see it play out in real time.

Quite apt really ....

The Italian doctors are doctor/teachers at a private teaching hospital.

For reliable news coming out of Italy, check:
Protezione Civile
Doctors from San Raffaele in Milan/Sacco in Milan/Spallenzani in Rome
Rai news.

Added to which Italy are struggling to maintain the whole lockdown anyway as people are refusing to comply
Alternative do you have a source for this? We have family in Italy and people are complying with the lockdown in their town. The streets are empty.
Oliversmums some Italian companies had allowed home working etc before the government response was ramped up.

The trouble is we always put the poxy economy before everything else.

That's because 'the poxy economy' is what gives us food, lights, heat and medical care. Not to mention schools, police, and a whole host of other essential services. Unless you want to live in a cave, grow your own food and fix your own medical problems?

It is not, and never was a complete lockdown as we understand it in English

So what exactly is the point then? And why is the Italian infection/death rate still going up?

Lots of Italian workers have been working from home for weeks. Kids have been doing lessons online for weeks.
If anyone's relative however has literally shut themselves in their house they haven't understood the measures.
The streets are empty after 6 because that's when the commercial activities are closing.
Alternative is probably refering to the mass exodus from the north to the south over the weekend when she talks about non compliance.

To limit contagion.
People have to work. Buy food.
We aren't all gathered in one room with an open phone line for communication from above like we would in a true lockdown.

Obviously.

I don't think it will be as bad as in Italy because of social differences - for example, they kiss to greet each other whereas we do not.

We are not looking to stop the spread as I understand it. It is accepted CV will spread. It just needs to happen fairly slowly and consistently so that the NHS can continue to manage. It would also be helpful if the peak hits in a few weeks once the Winter pressures are off the NHS and, with some luck, warmer weather slows the virus down for us a bit.

We will not know if the measures taken in China and Italy have made things better or worse for some time.

The UK is well placed to deal with this. It is complicated and the public do not have the information or expertise to decide anything. To my mind wisdom is knowing when to accept that you don't know enough to be able to make a decision and so deferring to those who do.