So surely now is the moment for the UK to shut down?

[littleblackdress04]

All the info I have read online indicates that the UK is probably 2 weeks behind Italy in terms of infection. So rather than wait until the horse has proverbially bolted, wouldn’t it make more sense to shut down now and stop a massive spread of coronavirus?

So if in a week or two China has another spike in cases as seems to be being predicted what will the “we should lock down now” types be saying?

There is a lot of talk that China did in fact go to lockdown far too soon, something which the UK is trying to avoid.

Added to which, Italy isn’t really on lockdown is it? People aren’t supposed to travel within the country but they can go out and about, shops, restaurants, cafe’s are all still open and there are still flights going in and out. That’s not lockdown by any stretch of the imagination. Oh, and diagnosis rates are still increasing, so clearly it’s not doing any good. Schools have been closed for a week now already and things are getting worse in Italy not better.

Swine flu was as bad as this and the same outcomes were predicted. And yet Swine flu came and went, and yes, I had it,although wasn’t aware of heart condition then but it already existed so technically I was in the at risk group then.

The media want people to be hysterical over this. On Friday I texted into five live talking about how although I have an underlying condition I am vigilant but certainly not panicking, and that we need to be aware rather than anything else. No I haven’t stockpiled or bought a gallon of hand sanitiser and handwashing is something we should already be doing.

They asked if they could call me to go on air and I said yes and reiterated my views.

Then that night I had a call asking if I would go on the Steven Nolan show to talk about my worries over the virus, given i have an underlying condition. I reiterated again that I didn’t have any worries, that I am aware of the symptoms but that I am not concerned at the moment. They then said “well, we can’t really put you on unless you have a question about your concerns, are you sure you don’t have concerns?” Suffice to say I didn’t go on.

But what that means in essence is that if they’re building people up into a state of worry because that’s the only way they’ll get to speak, then it looks as if everyone is worried about it because everyone the media is talking to is worrying, when what is actually happening is that those who aren’t worried or panicking are being kept out of the discussion. So it’s not measured at all.

The impact of a lock down like Italy atm would be huge and disproportionate.

www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2020/02/will-warming-spring-temperatures-slow-coronavirus-outbreak

The seasonality of the virus isn't undisputed.

Any measures that would be effective and not simply reactive will look disproportionate to begin with.

@TheMagiciansMewTwo so because Silvia Stringhini and Dr Daniele Macchini say the UK should shut down then we should ignore the experts monitoring it here and go on lockdown. Really?

I'm not sure I put much faith in twitter threads from random anons in Italy.
For some reason, people like spreading scare misinformation, e.g.:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-51805311
I read twitter stories about China burning 100s of 1000s of bodies a few weeks ago, building mobile incinerators to deal with all the dead.
If that was true, more stories like that would have leaked out, China control the news, but people travel.

Macchini is one of the doctors who seems to be quoted only in the British press. He's a doctor at the private teaching hospital referenced a million times on these threads.

Look for doctors from San Raffaele in Milan, Sacco in Milan and Spallenzani in Rome for more respected medical views.

It's worth looking at the cases per 100 population. Italy is way out in front at 151 cases per 1000 people - more even than China. We're only at 4 per 1000.

I have been looking at those, and people saying we aren't any different to Italy and we aren't special - clearly Italy is different.
China is 56.1, Italy 151.
There are differences between countries for some reason.

We can all have opinions of course mn is us just chatting, but we’re mostly without information (reminds me why referendums aren’t the best).

I do think that the CMO and others have the depth of expertise and information to make good decisions and give good guidance.

I was feeling a sense of urgency before but the more they explain their decisions the better off we are.

Deydo- hallelujah to your first sentence.
Some of these rentaquotes don't even seem to be medical doctors (anyone with a degree in Italy is a doctor)
We really need to research sources before sowing terror all over the internet.

Yes the majority of the rentaquotes are from doctors. But they're clearly doctors who have picked up on the tags from the press saying "are you in Italy, are you a doctor, give us your story"

The real experts aren't talking to the Independent at best or the Redtops at worst. They're doing their jobs.

Brilliant virologist on news this morning saying it isn't necessary to shut down country as Rory Stewart had just called for on same programme she said government is going on sound scientific backed advice and being outside, washing hands and carrying on as per normal is fine.

My Dad was telling me yesterday that "everyone should stop being selfish, stay home from work, get their shopping delivered". I said, so you don't want food delivery people to stay home then, or warehouse staff, or HGV drivers, or indeed anyone working in the food supply chain. And you don't want all the hospitals to shut, do you, so you don't want all of us working in those to stay off work. And you don't want the electricity and gas to go off or the water supply to be affected or nuclear power plants unattended, so you don't want the people working in those jobs to stay off work. We finally identified that he wants the country to shut down but to also carry on with all services available and I have asked him to come back to me with a plan for how that will work before I listen to any more rants from a retired person without caring commitments or income concerns about how everyone else is being selfish and should stay at home.

What they need to do is make school optional for those who want to keep their kids off or those who like mine have medical conditions (already off) and authorise those absences already you’ll have less movement of potential ‘superspreaders’ yet keeping childcare and schools for those who need it

I think this is a good idea, especially for the children with underlying conditions. There are quite a few of us who would be able to combine having our children at home with continuing to work as previously. We could in my house.

There is a huge majority at the moment who seem to find any mention of coronavirus "boring" or "annoying" and laugh at those stocking up on essentials.

Although I think at least some of them doth protest too much...

@icannotremember That seems to be what some people want.

Its hard to guage the risk locally, the UK is not reporting people who are critically ill as far as I know. News doesn't portray the whole picture, a colleague who also works in our general hospital said there are 4 people in our local hospital ITU being treated for coronavirus, this wasnt reflected in the official numbers for our area (Essex) at the time. And this is early days, what happens when that number doubles/trebles, day on day.

@EricaNernie what Iran is doing "better" is not testing anyone. They've administered 2000 tests in total. So some deaths are probably not counted and infections definitely aren't. Having said that I think the reactions are a bit nuts. Whats the point of staying healthy if you lose your job in the process? I'm self employed, if schools close I have no job and unless we hole up at home for four months there is still a risk anyway. My ds is asthmatic so yes it's a worry but we have to go on with life.

I wonder if the government is regretting spending the last few years convincing the public they don't need to listen to experts yet?

I have several friends who are nurses. If schools close they will be off work to look after their DC’s so a greater problem for the NHS.

icannotremember, I think most of the essential jobs that keep the country running can't actually be done from home. Makes me laugh when I see all this 'work from home' business, Emergency services, healthcare, food supply chain, transport, gas/electric/water, refuse collectors, communications, all require people onsite.

I think people are misunderstanding lock down. This doesn't mean a 24/7 curfew. It means that business can still run, people still go to work.. but public buildings such a museums close, and gatherings of people, such as concerts and football matches are cancelled. People aren't confined to their house the entire time.

The problem is when we start discussing "essential jobs" we of course mean roles that are essential to the country.

However it is also important to note that everyone's job is essential to them. A lock down can only be implemented with careful planning to mitigate financial ruin on hundreds and thousands of people. It isn't a case of saying "to hell with people, we want the economy to be fine", but at a time when essential services could well become even more stretched do we really want to create a whole new bank of vulnerable people!

*"UK peak expected within fortnight
The start of the UK peak of the coronavirus epidemic is expected within the next fortnight, England’s deputy chief medical officer has said.

Dr Jenny Harries defended the government’s decision to delay closing schools and the introduction of other stringent tactics, saying experts are assessing new cases on an hourly basis to achieve a “balanced response”.*

(From Guardian Live)

I think some people are going to get a swift lesson in exponential growth.

Surely if you shut the UK down the current cases will recover etc and it wipes the problem out.

The trouble is we always put the poxy economy before everything else.

@littleblackdress04 so what happens when they shut the country down and you havent been paid for a month but cant go back to work as it is shut down. cant sign onto universal credit as it has shut down... shops are not open for business as they are shut down so cant get baby food or nappies.... do you honestly think the country can shut down?

The economy includes people’s livelihoods wouldn’t call it poxy. What’s that stat about rising unemployment and people homeless and worse - dying.

The difference between the Italian figures and the Chinese figures is that we know the Italian information is reliable. That's why we are going with those.