How can the UK gov or anyone read this and not put the UK on lockdown?

[UnderReview]

The NHS won't. and shouldn't have to, cope with this...

Travel should have been stopped. Borders closed. People put in to lockdown.

ICU Doctor from Italy on current situation

Lockdown will need to last until a vaccine is developed to be effective. As soon as china relaxes conditions cases will rise again. This is why scientists are saying that 40%-80% of the popilation will catch it. It will not exceed 80% because of herd immunity. It will be at the lower end i.e 40% if we succeed in flattening the curve and slowing the spread until a vaccine becomes available in 1 to 2 years. There is therefore no point in introducing lockdown too early in the UK.

Course the gov doesn't want to lock down, it's only the elderly and infirm at risk, and they are a huge burden on society. Think how much the gov will save over time on the NHS if we let the virus take out those that cost so much to society...not to mention all the lovely death duties the gov will be able to collect...oooh and think of all the housing it will free up.... Surely this is a win win situation for the gov.?
As for previous poster mentioning the amount of drink drive related deaths, 300 a month really? Because in Italy just over three hundred people have died in a month. That's a pretty horrible and very sad fact.

Op I agree with you, I think more action to try and contain the virus is needed. Of course it's unlikely to stop it, but if it can be slowed down then hospitals might be able to cope better, and maybe a vaccine will be found, and maybe more people would survive.

Most hospitals are now functioning at full capacity (not really surprising as the strategic health authority closed down all out cottage hospitals, and our big acute hospital has nowhere to send people who aren't quite fit enough for home, but no longer acutely unwell.) and that's without the added logistical nightmare of corona.

I certainly heard that early intervention, however draconian it may seem, helps the NHS get shot of the seasonal flu/illness cases, so that when the spike comes, (and that's when not if), they'll have the capacity to deal with it in a managed way.

There will be a spike, it's not really avoidable - they're just using the resource they can to "schedule" the spike for a few weeks from now.

Not having to shut the barn door after the horse has bolted.

I'm amazed that Cheltenham race week is to go ahead tomorrow after the first case was detected there yesterday.

I think over 200,000 people are due to arrive.

The racecourse is right next to the University accommodation and many students will be working there.

Madness.

The health systems in Italy and Belgium are already saying they make choices when it comes to who gets the respirator. If you are 80 or over and it is between you and a guy who is 60, you won't receive breathing help.
There are not enough beds in assisted breathing. Even if you stop elective surgeries, people still get strokes and heart attacks and accidents so those beds are not only for Covid.

Italy's lockdown is a joke. Schoolsl might be closed, but the streets and cafes are full. People travel in the tube as if nothing, 70.000 cross the border daily to work in Switzerland and so on. It is closed on paper but not in real life.

My dad turned 80 in January. I feat for him in France. If France applies the same rule of " it is a war, you need to make difficult choices" , he won't get the medical assistance he needs to survive this.

I am in Australia, the GPs here are shouting for help. There have no equipment, tests take 10 days, they won't test everyone they flag, there are no clear guidelines.
Italy has more than 9000 cases, and they didn't put a travel ban on them - but there is one for Iran and South Korea - because of the Melbourne GP for F1 this weekend and the city would lose 60 million $ if Ferrari can't compete and event is cancelled. You can bet travel ban will magically appear right after the GP.

Countries have had 1 month to get ready and they haven't . We should learn from China on how to tackle this. We can't force a lockdown but we should be truthful and people should voluntarily limit activities. for 1 month.
We don't have the beds. We don't have the staff. We don't have the masks.
A friend of mine is a private surgeon. He will have to stop operating soon because his stock of masks is very low and the government doesn't issue masks to private doctors anymore and has requisitioned all stock.

People don't get how serious this is. People who would have survived a pneumonia will die because there are no resources available to cure them. And if you are cynical and saying they were old, it could be you, having a stupid accidents and having no access to oxygen.
Blood banks are very low in some countries because people stopped giving blood.

People seem to think this is some kind of gotcha - but essential workers like that have been the ones allowed out in China

Nope - genuine questions from those unable to self isolate to those demanding everyone does/ schools close etc.

I think we will go into lockdown at some point but it's too early yet. If we lockdown now, there will be huge economic cost for minimal health gains (as the spread is still very small).

My prediction is schools will close a few days early for Easter and travel/activities will be very restricted over the holiday.

Course the gov doesn't want to lock down, it's only the elderly and infirm at risk, and they are a huge burden on society

They also tend to be tory voters though.

I am an ICU nurse and that account from Italy is utterly terrifying.

I think they will lock down soon. They are going to have to.

Interesting to see people criticising China's approach when WHO have praised WHO's approach.
I tend to think WHO knows what they are talking about better than people on the internet.

Scientists have now made it clear that the government is prioritising economy over people’s lives.

We need a lock down now or we become a thoroughly ungodly species who chuck our weak on the fire. Literally. Because what else are we going to do with that many bodies.

PULL YOUR FINGER OUT GOVERNMENT.
PEOPLE TAKE THEIR CUES FROM YOU.
YOU ARE SIGNING THEIR FUCKING DEATH WARRANTS!

Sorry WHO have praised China's approach.

Its very sad actually. I saw those pictures of Venice on the TV. The gondoliers, who will now go out of business because there are no customers.
That is what a total lockdown means. It is not the country's economy. It is individual people. The Government have a difficult decision to make as when it is appropriate to 'lock down' schools, or certain towns, regions, etc.
They are taking the advice of the chief medical officer and other scientists. A complete lockdown may happen, but it is a balance, between a total lockdown and for how long.
As someone else said, if you are worried, self isolate, so you wan't get it.
I am trying to take as many precations as possible, washing my hands when I come in, and regularly during the day, and trying not to touch my face.

Total lockdown is not the answer. Who is going to man public services? Are NHS and civil service workers exempt from this? No.
The frenzied panicking is insanity.

Tourist industries will tank anyway.

@milveycrohn How can people self isolate? We won't get paid and we will be sacked from our jobs. If I just phone and say I can't go in I will be sacked. We can't even work from home until that becomes official advice.

I believe it is a big mistake not to advise against travel to Italy

I don't think there are many people wanting to go to Italy at the moment tbh.

"government is prioritising economy over people’s lives."

But a struggling economy also costs lives and over a much longer period

Yeah those lockdowns are working out really well in Northern Italy, where the prisoners have been rioting, resulting in six people dying. That's more than the number of people who have died from corona virus in the UK so far.

We have a very healthy economy. Our economy not being quite so healthy will not cost lives. We are not a poor country.

They can't lock down without a plan on how to get basic supplies to people, manage the loss of workforce (especially for people who have young kids if schools are shut) and potential public order problems is the problem. And I'm betting they don't have one, given they are totally incompetent.

OTOH, someone has pointed out that the gov is announcing what they are likely to do a week or so ahead, so it seems at least they are trying to manage expectations and encourage people to change behaviour ahead of that, which suggests some thoughtfulness of approach.

@ChibiTotoro Most of those got into the drug store and accidentally overdosed.

@Devlesko - great post thank you! You read my mind!

I think China is right. You nip it early or you don’t.

If 10% of people get this simultaneously and 10% of those need hospital treatment, that is 700,000 people needing hospital treatment simultaneously. Ain’t going to happen! So you will be looking at a mortality rate of maybe 7%, not 1%,or maybe 2 million dying. They will mostly be old but is that an acceptable cost to a civilised society?

At some point we have to choose between saving lives and preserving freedoms. I would prefer to give up freedom temporarily to avoid the ghastly scenario of people dying in their millions.