Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

I think it’s possible schools could remain open but with minimum children in them - either ones who are preparing for exams and / or kids whose parents really can’t find an alternative. That’s primary schools really, as secondary kids would manage themselves.

lampsandrain I keep seeing that on this thread I'm not sure where you are getting that number from.
edition.cnn.com/2020/02/23/europe/italy-novel-coronavirus-spike-intl/index.html

This news article from 2 weeks ago shows italy having 200 confirmed cases.

I absolutely think they should shut the schools now. Many experts saying the same thing and the WHO subtly criticising countries like the UK for not being proactive enough. Obviously the concern is the economy but that's going to be affected either way. If we can mitigate the spread - and children spread diseases - then surely that will benefit the economy. Letting 80% of the population potentially get sick will decimate our health service and the economy. I think the public mood will quickly turn over the next couple of weeks as cases begin to rise exponentially.

In other words, in a class of thirty children Ellie’s mum loses her job because she can’t find adequate childcare offset against the possibility of slowing down the virus and saving lives and so on - from a cost perspective the latter is more important than the former, however shit it is for Ellie’s mum.

That is utterly incorrect. What will happen is that Bob's dad who is a policeman will not be able to go to work, nor Mary's mum who is a nurse at a care home, nor Stuart's dad who works in a food production plant, nor Jimmy's mum who works in a facility that manufactures insulin, etc. So very soon you'll have utilities going off, food and medicine shortages and no one will turn up when your neighbor looses the plot and tries to take your last roll of toilet paper. The vulnerable, the elderly, the disabled and sick, will be dying from basic lack of care as well as the virus.

Meanwhile the virus will still be spreading via adults so all of this will have been for nothing.

That doesn't work for children in special schools neither will be others volunteering to look after them. a fairly small number and frankly very minor compared with thousands more people dying than had to because schools stayed open.

If supplies run low, children from our poorest families could be stuck at home with no food.

^ This. We all need to be seriously considering donating to food banks now (but only what they say they need) so they can have stocks available quickly. Foodbanks are going to find it hard aren't they, now I think about it the mainly elderly volunteers may well stop to protect themselves and I can't say I blame them really.

scorpion that’s a really good point about poorer families and the effect school closures will have. Also, special needs children often really struggle with school holidays as it is and many families of disabled children are plunged into crisis during school holidays due to their child not coping with the break in routine. Closing these schools could push many children and families beyond breaking point.

What will happen is that Bob's dad who is a policeman will not be able to go to work, nor Mary's mum who is a nurse at a care home, nor Stuart's dad who works in a food production plant, nor Jimmy's mum who works in a facility that manufactures insulin, etc

Unless these people are all single parents then presumably couples will be deciding which parent stays at home based on money and social need - photographer from the local paper vs school teacher for example; the photographer could stay at home with no significant impact on society.

Most volunteers I know at various places are retired or those who can't work full time due to health issues.

While the WHO is making rousing claims for remaining proactive, in reality they are not actually suggesting any practical measures. The cynic in me says that this is because there are no practical measures that would be effective and the WHO is just keeping morale up by making people feel there is something they could be doing, namely washing hands.

Given how easily this virus spreads it will become endemic. A vaccine will eventually protect those who have access to the vaccine from this version, until it mutates, but hopefully a new vaccine will be forthcoming faster then. It will be one of the viruses that will resurface every autumn.

@gamerwidow, so we wait for 3000 cases and multiple deaths like Italy before we take action?
Can we not learn from the mistakes of other countries or do we wait for it to take hold , while we lose our vulnerable elderly and those with underlying conditions to it ?

Yes, we should be pro active and try to contain this virus as much as possible .if that means closing down schools, so be it . It will be difficult to manage for a lot of people but if lives are saved as a result, it will be worth it .

If 55% of diagnosed cases need hospitalisation, where do the beds come from?

They don't. It's estimated that 80% of cases need no special care. That will still put a massive strain on beds and electives will need to be cancelled but most people will be ill but ok with home care.

It is a serious problem but no need to exaggerate the figures

The schools are going to close anyway. The economy is going to take a massive hit, and families are going to struggle massively with the consequences of all of this.

All of that is inevitable. What is not yet inevitable is the speed of spread, and the subsequent death toll. That is still to play for.

So closing schools is not a choice. It’s an inevitability. The choice is whether to do it too late or not.

the photographer could stay at home with no significant impact on society.

That is such a naive lack of basic understanding of economics that it is difficult to know what to say in reply.

Point is, out of thirty primary aged children, they won’t all have two parents who work, those who do have two parents who work will have grandparents, aunts, friends who can help, or can work flexibly.

The number of children with two working parents who absolutely can’t take time away and have no family help at all and/or single parents with absolutely no help at all will be in the minority.

Completely agree with @partystress: I think this is a godsend for this government. Brexit fallout can all be blamed on COVID-19, the virus appears to be nicely discriminatory and will reduce the long-term burden on the NHS and social care, and it’s come along at a time when several turds were flying fanwards for BoJo.

Otherwise, I just don't know how this would work in the long run, and tend to agree also with @CinnabarRed about the economic costs, which will obviously affect everyone, worldwide.

So closing schools is not a choice. It’s an inevitability. The choice is whether to do it too late or not. I think this might be the core of the matter.

Designerenvy not for 3000 cases but not at this stage either. We should be watchful waiting. Italys cases doubled and they did nothing we haven't seen an escalation in infection rates. It's not the same scenario.

Food bank thanks for the reminder. About to go shopping and There's one on the way out.

PaddyFodder - I completely agree with your post, its not a case of if the schools are closed, its when

But as has already been said, it can't just be schools. It needs to be a lockdown like in Italy. Cue panic buying and empty shelves....

So closing schools is not a choice. It’s an inevitability. The choice is whether to do it too late or not.

No, the opposite. We isolate the vulnerable and keep everything else going so we have the resources to look after them, and the sick.

If it gets to the point were all schools and businesses and factories and banks, etc. are closed down, most of us will die in the state of anarchy that will take over before the coronavirus can get to us.

Or we could just let the virus take its natural course... I understand all councils have to have new burial sites earmarked just in case.

But who decides who is vulnerable. Is it just the over 60s or the younger ones with Asthma, diabetes etc

Pretty sure I’m going to get teacher bashed here but as a teacher I am terrified that I will catch this at school because it is a just a massive germ playground. Then I have elderly family. As do most of the staff. Hundreds of children breathe over me daily and I can’t ‘distance’ myself. They sneeze over you, cough over you and touch surfaces. They then take the germs home to their elderly families also. I realise it would an inconvenience but it would spread through a school like wildfire.