Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

Not everyone has a group of friends at all, let alone that they can rely on to help out with childcare:

Thank you for this excellent post OP. I am also concerned that we are swiftly going past the point of no return with coronavirus and that more needs to be done now.

There is a petition asking the government to consider closing schools now: petition.parliament.uk/petitions/300403

I don't think it matters how inconvenient this is. Just look at Italy and you see the immense inconvenience (and death) caused by not taking preventative measures soon enough.

We are heading the same way and we need to take preventative action now.

Certainly my dc school has upped the handwashing message - i keep getting the "we must wash our hands well" message from dc age 6

My workplace is working hard at the moment to soup up the VA capacity in anticipation of a closure, or at least a large upsurge in people working from home. The plan is that we'd have access in shifts and many of us could access, download information then work on it on our home computer then upload the results on your next "turn". It would mean a lot more emailing but we could cope w that. Meetings will be remote. Those of us who do site based work will carry on but that's lower risk anyway.

‘Schools are being very hot on hand washing’

No, the idea is that large numbers of people infect others. So Grace catches coronavirus and gives it to Charlie, Amelia, Oliver, Thomas and Lily, who each go home and pass it on. Charlie’s mum is recovering from cancer, amelia’s grandmother is in her late 70s, and so on ...

This is not what I personally think have bolded that so I’m not flamed - the government do not give a shit how your child is cared for.

@HasaDigaEebowai

55% of diagnosed cases in hospital and 11% needing intensive care seems a large percentage to me . That seems much higher than the Chinese figures or am I mistaken?

If 55% of diagnosed cases need hospitalisation, where do the beds come from?

Thanks for confirming about exams piggy. It does worry me and I don’t think there is any idea solution. Delaying until September has a knock on effect for the new studies, not delaying means there is a risk of a lot of students missing exams through illness or doing exams whilst ill and spreading the virus to others.
Realistically gcse and A levels exams cannot be done remotely due to the risk of cheating (which would definitely happen). Exams can only be done in a controlled physical environment.
I think the idea of an extra weeks closure at Easter is feasible but those exam pupils will still miss a week of pre exam teaching and that doesn’t seem fair either but it might be the most workable solution.

From a completely selfish POV I'm hoping the schools don't close. I'm a single parent with no family support working for not much above minimum wage in the NHS. I can't afford to take unpaid leave. If the schools close I honestly don't know what I will do.

I honestly don't understand some people on here...thousands of people will die otherwise but.....oh what about my boss getting cross and kids will have to watch too much TV. Most people's jobs aren't 100% essential and life saving for a few weeks esp if everywhere is closed. The gov will obv have to put in measures to stop people losing their jobs.

Italy shut it's schools when the infection rate hit 3,000 cases and they had 150 deaths. We don't have anywhere near that infection rate.

One thing about schools shutting for Easter. Our nursery doesn't, and many others don't either. Plus they run clubs providing holiday childcare for people who work. So while many children will be staying at home during the break, quite a lot won't.

If keeping children home will stop a spike in cases that will flood the nhs and ultimately mean the sickest die because of lack of ventilators/Drs/drugs etc, but it means that essential staff have to stay home reducing the number of serious cases that can be cared for, SURELY someone just does the maths and sees which scenario saves the most people?

I wonder why we aren’t isolating the vulnerable. Surely we could let it rip through the young and fit and keep our older and weaker in safer spaces?

Saying you don’t think you can have your children home for a month because they’d be hard work, or you’d lose your job is ridiculous if it’s that or people lose their LIVES. We don’t kill off the grannies to save the economy.

Neither did Italy two weeks ago gamer, they had twenty cases then.

I’ve sent 2 children home from school this week with high temperatures. Who knows whether that’s covid?

"In this day and age, wouldn't it be quite easy for children to work from home? They could be sent their work online."

That doesn't work for children in special schools neither will be others volunteering to look after them.

Practically no one can afford to work without pay for a month

My greatest concern with closing schools is the number of children relying on a school lunch and in some cases, even breakfast. If supplies run low, children from our poorest families could be stuck at home with no food.

Italy shut it's schools when the infection rate hit 3,000 cases and they had 150 deaths. We don't have anywhere near that infection rate.

Would you prefer us to wait until we hit this level before taking action? Italy were where we are now two weeks ago 😮

@MotherOfDragonite that petition is not asking for the schools to close now, just for them to close, which the government has already agreed to do when it suits them.

If 55% of diagnosed cases need hospitalisation, where do the beds come from?

Exactly

"
Today 08:55purplebob

Not everyone has a group of friends at all, let alone that they can rely on to help out with childcare:"
But if those of us who can do, do, that takes as much strain out of the system as possible.

A pp: it was me that mentioned too much TV. I meant that would be fine, not ideal but this situation isn't.

It’s possible packed lunches may be provided to children on FSM, not sure though.

laurie the cold truth is that most people won’t have to. Internet forums generally tend to draw people without much by way of family support, but most people do have grandparents or could work flexibly to arrange something. For those who can’t (and I’m not being an unsympathetic arse) the government won’t much care.

In other words, in a class of thirty children Ellie’s mum loses her job because she can’t find adequate childcare offset against the possibility of slowing down the virus and saving lives and so on - from a cost perspective the latter is more important than the former, however shit it is for Ellie’s mum.

Italy shut it's schools when the infection rate hit 3,000 cases and they had 150 deaths. We don't have anywhere near that infection rate.

Italy didn't solve the problem by closing schools at that point, a bit like locking the stable door after the horse has bolted. If we take action now, it may help prevent things escalating to the level Italy is at today.

Not that I want the schools to close, particularly with a D.C. doing Highers next month, but I can see why it would be needed before the point t where Italy took action.

OP - I work for NHS and totally agree with you as do the many GPs I work with.
We already have plans for telephone consults only and home visits to prevent pt movement. We are making plans to maintain baby imms but children are key vectors for the spread.
You are an expert in your field so ignore any naysayers. Our view at work is the next 2-4 weeks are pivotal and at least 12 months of adjustment.

BUT - we would all love to be wrong.

Not sure how the distribution of lunches to those on fsm could possibly work. Unless they allow an adult to come and collect.