Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

If they did they clearly can foresee better than others and should have bought the shares for the vaccine-making company already.

This is what happens over the next two weeks if the predictions by Mark Handley are correct, and the rate of increase in infection is 0.33% per day. The UK would catch up to where Italy is now, but our curve stays much, much flatter - and that's what matters most.

MrsNoah, you are just showing yourself up now, I don't think you understand what trajectory means or the science behind it.
But you obviously think you know more than the rest of us, and more than the scientists from the University College London who have mapped the disease to find the "trajectory" which means the path that the figures are taking. This puts us two weeks behind Italy.
Your graph just shows cases and can't be used to plan or predict anything.

Marsha

Well, clearly they should, perhaps more will do in future.
Maybe there won't be too many who will need to be off with kids, some may have older kids or only one of the parents an emergency worker.
I'm sure they'll find a way the same as everyone else.

“Proactive school closures—closing schools before there’s a case there—have been shown to be one of the most powerful nonpharmaceutical interventions that we can deploy.”
www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/does-closing-schools-slow-spread-novel-coronavirus

Here’s a graph I just knocked up. We’re not following the same trajectory as Italy, we’re following a much shallower trajectory.

X axis is number of days after roughly 50 cases recorded in the country. (Italy is now day 17, so way ahead).

Dev I can’t take your posts seriously.

I have many friends who both work in emergency services - doctors married to nurses, paramedics, pharmacists etc. They will be off work if schools close as their priority is there DC’s.

Not everyone has family members local or not working who can provide childcare.

Please don't name-call or I will report you MrsNoah. You have decided you know more than the experts, the scientists at UCL and the government I disagree with you and have chosen to believe their graph and predictions.
I am neither a dimwit or stupid thank you. I work with figures everyday, obviously I'm not as clever as you think you are though.

If we assume that Mark Handley is correct about the next two weeks, this is what our trajectory looks like from 31 Jan until the end of March, compared to Italy.

Disclaimer: at the risk of upsetting Harpingon, I admit to having used cases Exactly the same cases as UCH used for their model, in fact. As you will see, our trajectory still looks radically different from Italy's

MrsNoah, I have reported you

Marsha

Well, I'm taking it very seriously. The people we rely on to keep us alive will be at home caring for their kids.
I know 6 retired nurses that on approach to volunteer said no, definitely not.
One friend told me they tried to make her sound guilty saying it was for her country. When there are those who should be doing the job looking after their kids. They've done their bit, it's not fair to make the retired feel guilty.

You have decided you know more than the experts, the scientists at UCL and the government I disagree with you and have chosen to believe their graph and predictions

On the contrary, I have used exactly the same data as UCL and made the same predictions as them. As I explained above. With pictures.

So does this mean we won't be as affected?

MrsNoah, I have reported you

For what, using cases to make epidemiological predictions? At least that'll be a novelty for the mods.

Wow! A maths nerd fight!

So does this mean we won't be as affected?

Yes. We will probably end up with the same percentage of our population having had the infection as Italy. But if our rise is slower (as it has been so far), fewer people will be seriously ill or die - see this animation.

I know this might seem counter-intuitive, but think of it like a big car crash. If a coach overturns and 100 seriously injured people pitch up in A&E at the same time, each of them is likely to get worse care than if one person a day is injured on 100 days in a row. So more people will die as a result of the coach crash than the 100 separate incidents, even if the injuries are the same.

unfortunately none of the graphs are any good as an indicator if we are not testing the same number of people or are testing different types of people.

I’m kind of with you MrsNoah

Italy and uk got their first case on the same day so clearly our progress could be expected to differ

@lumene

Great article.

Makes total common sense.

What are we waiting for!

It's a shame quotes and that article wasn't added to the close schools petition

kids are most likely to be slightly effected by being poorly or be carriers - kids are superspreaders once it gets going particularly for grandparents. I do think we should be doing 7 day rule for coughs and colds NOW. I know its hard but we are all going to suffer economically here but the alternative is a higher death rate.

We just are not testing people unless they've travelled to a red zone or certain other countries. My DSis is a school teacher. They have people in their school self isolating and two self isolating because they have been in very close contact with confirmed cases. She has developed a bad cough, sore throat, headache and muscle aches. She contacted the GP and was told to go to the surgery. She questioned it in the circumstances and was told that if she hasn't travelled she should go to the surgery. She then saw a GP who said she wasn't sure what it was but its definitely viral .

I have a virus but haven’t been tested because I haven’t been abroad. I have however been in hospital after an accident and got a temp last week and am
Weak and coughing this week. If you do t fit the criteria you don’t get tested