Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

Who is going to look after all the doctors and nurses kids who are off school?
I'm guessing we want doctors and nurses in our hospitals?

The country to watch is the USA
I would not suggest booking holidays there for a while yet ....
Their healthcare and employment law system are brewing massive problems

Who is going to look after all the doctors and nurses kids who are off school?

I wondered exactly that as I walked my dog earlier (my mind wanders when I do that!)

trajectory means that on a graph we are following the same curve. So in 13 days we will be where Italy is today. HTH.

We are not following the same curve. If 2 countries with similar populations start at the same point (1 case) and 6 weeks later, one country has 30 times more cases than the other, they are definitely not on the same curve. This is very basic maths. HTH

Could we end up with the same number of cases as Italy? Yes. But we still won't have followed the same curve.

Nor is this difference because we are testing fewer people. The U.K. is mainly testing high risk people: those with both symptoms and a history of travel to high risk countries. Even in this high risk group, only 1% of swabs are positive.

Who is going to look after all the doctors and nurses kids who are off school?

They'll have to get their oh to take time off. Bit silly both being emergency workers, there's always a possibility they'd be needed.
Leave them on their own like we did in the 70's I suppose.

Mrs Noah, just google coronavirus trajectory, it might help you understand if you can actually see the graph.

MrsNoah, or just have a looks at the news? It's all over it.....maybe check your maths too..

This is really not helping anyone is it? It's speculation and scaremongering
Well they have sanctioned countless people for being unable to attend their job centre appointment and a job interview at the exact same time and ru why keep finding people fit for work who (the majority who appeal) are found not be fit by appeal tribunals. they have caused a lot of deaths as a result of benefit changes and sanctions and they cause misery and hardship to unemployed persons on a day to day basis so I have no faith that they will let people off job hunting during a lockdown.
Why would I think differently given their record?
They already think people can pay bills and feed their families on £95 a week sick pay. They are incompetent numpties who don’t give a shit about the poor and Covid 19 ain’t going to change that.

Bit silly both being emergency workers, there's always a possibility they'd be needed

Yes, come on people, do choose your future partners on whether there may be a national emergency once in a blue moon 🙄

Marie

Or make arrangements for childcare in an emergency, or not have kids, or many other solutions.
Cope, like everyone else has to I suppose.

Or make arrangements for childcare in an emergency, or not have kids, or many other solutions
Cope, like everyone else has to I suppose

Go on then, what’s this miraculous emergency childcare that can last weeks on end when childcare facilities could shut down?

The hospitals my siblings work in are now testing all patients with chest infections regardless of where they have been and why they are in.

MrsNoah, or just have a looks at the news? It's all over it.....maybe check your maths too

I assume you mean articles like this? This article actually shows exactly what I am talking about: this is the UK trajectory vs the Italian one:

What I think some of you are talking about is this, but this is not the trajectory to date, it's a mathematical model of what may happen, based on some assumptions about the rate of increase.

Cope, like everyone else has to I suppose.

By taking time off work. So, back to the questioned of what medical/essential services families are meant to do. I'm not sure what making sarcastic comments like "leave them at home" or "don't have kids" is meant to achieve.

Marie

There isn't any, that's the point. you have kids they are your responsibility to care for them. surely you find a job that fits in with your responsibilities. Or, expect your kids to be alone in an emergency where childcare doesn't exist.

Even if the model about what will happen is correct, and the UK eventually ends up with the same number of infections, the UK will not have followed the same trajectory as Italy. Look at the first graph and its much flatter curve than Italy's. That is what has happened to date, and will remain true, whatever happens in the future.

You might be thinking that this is being pedantic: if we are going to end up in the same place, does it matter whether we got there at the same speed? The answer is yes. The flatness of the curve is the most important predictor of the number of people who will die.

Whilst I'm normally an advocate of "make sure you can care for them before having kids" it's not unreasonable to do the planning for that on the basis that paid for childcare will generally be there and that issues are the exception. Closure for potentially months is probably beyond the scenarios most people considered and planned for.

MrsNoah after reading some inflammatory stuff on another thread I like your graph. Hope it holds.

There isn't any, that's the point. you have kids they are your responsibility to care for them. confused surely you find a job that fits in with your responsibilities

Sure. Which will, for a lot of people mean they care for their kids I.e emergency personnel not going to work

Or, expect your kids to be alone in an emergency where childcare doesn't exist

A raft of 2 year olds left to their own devices.

People really should consider what they’re typing.

This is the graph that really matters: it shows the difference in the number of serious illness you get if the infection spreads slowly, vs a sudden peak like Italy's.

Mark Handley from UCL, who did the predictive model in the Daily Mail article, is concerned that the UK may surge upwards to follow Italy. And that may happen (though we still would not have followed the same trajectory, and our flatter curve upwards would still predict fewer deaths). But, as with all predictive models, he has had to make a number of predictions that may be turn out not to be true. In particular, he has had to assume that the relationship between reported cases and actual cases is consistent across all countries and that may not be true at all, as all countries are testing and reporting differently.

The hospitals my siblings work in are now testing all patients with chest infections regardless of where they have been and why they are in.

As far as I know this is not the case for NHS 111 or anyone concerned contacting their GP unless they have been abroad or been in contact with someone who has. Many many potential cases are not being screened

Bloody hell, I’ve seen a lot of threads on here where people have betrayed others for having kids without planning for every possible scenario including divorce, death of a parent, child disablement etc but nobody can be reasonably expected to have foreseen that a rampant virus might shit down the country leaving them without paid for childcare. Nobody can reasonably be expected to plan for such situations before deciding to have children.

Not betrayed ....berated!
Bloody autocorrect

Not many factored in a pandemic before marrying another emergency worker and having dc.