Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

Well, that's shit Totallycluelessoverhere.

It might not be the same as in usual times mariequeen. Lots of people who are office workers are being asked to work from home, the Sahps might take in the children in the wider family if relations are good - I wfh and I'd take in my nieces, the unemployed won't be expected to job hunt in this climate - at least I bloody hope not

Of course. That’s why I was commenting that it would be interesting to see what was deemed essential.

I have a friend who is a carer. It’s absolutely his vocation. He can only do it because his wife earns a high enough wage etc etc

Why are we still in the ‘contain’ phase when it’s pretty obvious it’s not working?!

Why do you think it’s not working?

Numbers were always going to go up and people were always going to die, sadly. The government aren’t acting in a vacuum here they do actually have scientists and medics to take advice from who I think might know better than you.

fourteafallout I fully expect the unemployed will be sanctioned if the don’t continue job hunting. I reckon even in lockdown they would be expected to internet search jobs and do whatever they can from home for at least 35 hours each week or face sanction. This Govt would probably like to see the unemployed die so that they can lower the unemployment figures and tell us what a fantastic job they are doing of reducing unemployment and benefit payouts.

This is really not helping anyone is it? It's speculation and scaremongering.

completely agree with you. The schools should have been shut and areas locked down. Look at China, hospitals are emptying and new cases have drastically fallen.

China have gone well beyond this in containment measures that simply would not be acceptable in a more liberal society.

There’s talks here in Ireland of shutting the schools for a month!!

I hope no one complaining about how the government are handling this didn’t vote Tory.

Or did vote Tory. Not awake yet!

China did more than shut schools, what they did wouldn’t happen here.

Exactly @marshabradyo. Who in their right mind would think it’s a good idea to give the government the right to keep tabs on your whereabouts at all times? Screw that for a game of soldiers. There would be riots if they tried that here which would just cause even more problems and spread more disease

Nothing would have induced me to vote for Bojo. I'd feel a lot more confident if we had a Prime Minister with an iota of common sense.

We’ve had a case of self isolation in our school - the parents asked if they could self isolate the child as they were (after discussing with their work places after being in Italy) - school can’t officially condone it but are quite happy the child isn’t in!
We are another who are still pushing attendance figures 😬

The government may have medics and scientists to advise them. But Boris being the dick he is, is probably ignoring them.

I guess he’s shitting himself about it all. The Tories are the government of the economy. He may have been advised to take further steps. But he hasn’t because he doesn’t want to upset party donors etc.

I agree PaddyFOdder. My husband (aged 66) and myself (61) provide wrap around care for 9 schoolchildren and are in the process of discussing whether we should close our setting now or if and when the schools close. It would be a nightmare for the parents if we act immediately and we are pretty certain that the parents would think we are over reacting.

Or is it more to do with a distinct lack of testing here!?

Not at all. The UK has been doing much more testing that Italy was, prior to the shit really hitting the fan there. That is one of the reasons that they are in so much trouble - they didn't realise how much coronavirus was in the community until too late.

The UK is testing asymptomatic (well) people across 200 sentinel sites, as well as everyone with a high risk travel history. To date, the UK has tested 24,960 people, with only 319 (1%) testing positive. That is very low, considering that most of those tested were considered high risk due to travel.

This is one of the reasons why it doesn't make sense to close schools now: children are very unlikely to be infected, because there is so little in the population as yet.

France, the UK and Germany are all following exactly the same trajectory as the Italians. I think it's a daily increase of around 33% which would mean we reach the same level as Italy in 13 days...
Whether we shut down or not I think it would be sensible for everyone to prepare.

Even if schools close the virus is going to still be there when they reopen. It may slow the spread a bit but it’s not going to go away. I think some people think it will.

The chaos caused to exam year students with students and teachers being in/out/in / out with mild bugs and week long self isolations under current strategies allows governments and exam boards to shrug and say they have 'processes'

It'll be mayhem...

France, the UK and Germany are all following exactly the same trajectory as the Italians. I think it's a daily increase of around 33% which would mean we reach the same level as Italy in 13 days...

We are on a totally different trajectory to Italy. The UK had its first case one day after Italy. Italy's population is virtually the same size as the UK (only a 3% difference). If we were following the same trajectory, we should have 9,172 cases tomorrow, the same number of cases as they have today (as we're 24h behind). We currently have 321. And, yes, we are testing for them.

This slower spread makes a crucial difference to the effects of the epidemic. The slower the spread, the fewer people die, even if the same total number are infected as in a country where spread has been fast.

I’ve HEARD (and could be absolute BS) that Italy aren’t actually testing all their “cases” but stating that anyone with symptoms has Covid 19.

I repeat this could be absolute BS but it would explain why they have a larger number than any other European country....

I don't get why everyone is going on about shutting schools when airports are still open. It would make sense to shut transport hubs before we shut schools.

It is older, wealthier people who go on lots of holidays that are the issue, so why go for the children first with draconian suggestions? I'd sooner everyone gave up their holidays than my children had to give up their education.

Mrs Noah, trajectory means that on a graph we are following the same curve. So in 13 days we will be where Italy is today. HTH.

@MrsNoah2020 it is incorrect to say that we are on a totally different trajectory to Italy. This is not clearcut.

The major difference in comparing the early numbers is that we have been testing more people. As at 26 February, the UK had 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate). On the same date Italy had concluded 9,462 tests, of which 470 positive, awaiting results: unknown (at least 5.0% positivity rate).

So it is fairly clear from the high positivity rate of tests that the problem in Italy was more widespread already within the community when they began testing for Covid19 seriously. And so the exponential growth in cases will have been faster because it was already more established.

What I mean to say is, it is likely that we are on the same trajectory. It is just that they are further ahead than us.

I think there are currently a lot more cases than quoted in the statistics. We are not testing those with symptoms that have not travelled or been in contact with someone that has been abroad. There are many people in denial 'it's just a cold' or for one reason or another just want to or have to continue with their daily lives and do not want to self isolate