Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

Ahhh... Still awful but relieved you weren't talking about a child!

Yes, me too!

Just marking to give me time to read thread.

If you're in quarantine and self-isolation for 14 days you might get through it. Otherwise no chance, its huge.

I'm with you op, close the schools.

I've relatives in japan and they've closed the schools there early for the spring break and another relative in Vietnam also with closures.

It's coming so get it done.

The stats for this are serious not just the deaths (which are bad enough) but the number of people being hospitalised and in ICU. I've had the unfortunate experience of sitting by a loved ones bedside in ICU when they were on a ventilator and it was horrendous, I don't know if people comprehend what it means, it's not lying reading a magazine with an oxygen mask on your face.

We need to take all measures possible to reduce the speed of transmission, because it will save many, many lives. That includes closing schools, colleges, and probably also many places of work, and reducing use of public transportation where possible.

The key reason is this: the overall mortality rate has only been 2-3%, but the rate of patients severely ill enough to require ICU treatment for a few days in order to survive is closer to 10%. So if we all get this at once instead of spreading out the inevitable mass infection over time, then many more of us will die: if the number of severely ill patients massively exceeds the number of available ICU beds, then the overall mortality rate will rise towards 10%.

For the visually inclined, check this link
www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-6642157712614408192-oYE1

Yes, it would be highly inconvenient to close schools, offices, etc. for what would probably be a number of months.

But, FFS, if this turns out to be alarmist and unnecessary (for instance if the "real" number of cases is 100x higher while the mortality is 100x lower), then doing this will cost us a couple of months of wasted time at most. Whereas, if it's necessary but we fail to do it, then continuing with business as usual for a couple more weeks could easily cost a couple of million lives in the UK alone.

The precautionary principle needs to be applied in this situation, urgently. Close the schools !

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/300403

The WHO now estimate 3.4% death rate

www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s-death-rate-is-higher-than-thought-but-it-should-drop

But this keeps changing and will hopefully drop again

In terms of the elderly/people with underlying serious health issues the NHS, on resource alllocation considerations, will not actively treat people and just provide palliative care?

The WHO now estimate 3.4% death rate

That’s what I thought it always was

This was published on BBC news an hour ago:

The Prime Minister will chair an emergency Cobra meeting later to decide whether to bring in measures to delay the spread of coronavirus in the UK.

The meeting is expected to consider whether "social distancing" measures should now be introduced .

These could include banning of big events, closing schools and encouraging home working.

I’m in Canada and where I am we’re coming up to a two week spring break. People go on holiday and lots of kids who come here to live with local families and study English at our schools travel home on the breaks. The government has not banned travel and the schools have only “been in discussions” with these kids’ parents. It does not fill me with confidence. Added to that the assistants and custodians and secretaries have been told to stay home if they have flu but they have very minimal sick pay and are barely scraping by as is (teachers are well paid here), so I worry people will come in to work initially not realising what they have as they can’t afford to stay home on the off chance.

At last! What is it with waiting until weekends are over to hold emergency COBRA meetings?

We do need to take action to try to minimise deaths. I’d been holding back from signing the petition to keep children off school, as I wasn’t sure whether that would help, but actually, looking at Italy, we have the chance to distance before it gets so bad that everyone has to anyway.
I get that we can’t probably stop it now, but we could slow it down way quicker.

It’d need real thinking out of the box, but it’d be worth the government giving some kind of universal income to tide everyone over for a few weeks, and it’d be cheaper in the long term than hundreds of thousands of people dying in a v short space of time.

At the least, areas down south should be considered for this.

Why just areas down south? There are plenty of cases in the north too...or doesn’t the north matter as much?

This is positive www.theguardian.com/education/2020/mar/09/charities-feed-children-if-coronavirus-shuts-uk-schools

Who will feed the children of the staff who work in nurseries and independent schools. Because they won’t get paid if settings are closed by the government.

No fees = no money = no staff wages.

My son attends an independent special school where half the children are residential. I suspect they will at some point shut the school to day pupils.
If I keep him home before then he probably lose his place as funding would be pulled so he will be going in until then.

If th et close the schools, which I seriously think they will have no choice but to do, some sort of emergency benefit will have to be made available to people. I read tons last night and I am now more concerned that we really do need to stop as much movement as possible.

I read this last night,
twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909?s=20

I’ll be really surprised if they close schools. Not saying they shouldn’t but I just can’t see it.

It’s the discrepancy between what we know to be confirmed cases, and cases that are actual but not confirmed where this may be rising sharply. I had thought about the difference if I’m honest, to report confirm and publish each case takes time/equipment/staff.

Who is she @evenquiteife ?

It would be good if they do decide to close schools that they could give people a bit of notice, so that childcare can be arranged.

Last week I sent 2 children home from our small school with high fevers. They won’t get tested will they? So there is no way of knowing the true figure .