Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

Unfortunately, the latest analysis of cases China does not support children being less likely to become infected. The following paper has not been peer reviewed - this is because it is written with the most recent information available.

"The household secondary attack rate was 15%, and children were as likely to be infected as adults."

Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts
Qifang Bi, Yongsheng Wu, Shujiang Mei, Chenfei Ye, Xuan Zou, Zhen Zhang, Xiaojian Liu, Lan Wei, Shaun A Truelove, View ORCID ProfileTong Zhang, Wei Gao, Cong Cheng, Xiujuan Tang, Xiaoliang Wu, Yu Wu, Binbin Sun, Suli Huang, Yu Sun, Juncen Zhang, Ting Ma, View ORCID ProfileJustin Lessler, Teijian Feng

Thank you :)

It wasn't publicised much but an outbreak of norovirus shut many schools across the NE in the autumn, but mainly due to staff sickness and then needing to deep clean. Many pupils got it but it seemed like a higher percentage of staff.

The issue is that school is a melting pot for germs; even if pupils don't show many symptoms they can pass it on. I have asthma and am a little concerned, though I've weathered 4 chest bugs since sept so far and can cope if I take inhalers and rest my voice. I teach sen and it can be very hard to get some to wash properly; I think we'll have to have bowls of soapy water to play in in some classes.

The balance against the impact of the economy is huge though. I'm wondering whether to offer childcare to HCPs I know locally if we are in that situation.

I agree, @Pointless - shame the WHO hasn’t been able to stem what it describes as the infodemic of misinformation and lies that is spreading faster than the coronavirus itself (as it so eloquently put it)

Aridane, people can show you academic research, quote the WHO reports at you, and you still put your fingers in your ears and talk about us all spreading misinformation.

If we close schools and other public places are we just delaying the spread of the virus until these places reopen?

Yes, though slowing the spread is useful, because it prevents the NHS being overwhelmed by a huge spike in sick people. It's too soon to consider closing schools etc though - there is no point doing so when not many people are as yet infected. So far, most infected people in the UK were infected abroad. This will change in time, and that is the moment to consider quarantine etc`(though there are pros and cons to it, even then).

And, if the OP is really a doctor, he should know that the mortality rate is not 3%. The mortality rate of people sick enough to require medical care, mainly hospitalisation, is about 3%. That compares with about 1.6% for flu this year - not a severe year for flu.

I was amazed at hearing how teachers are buying handwash for the children in their class to use as the school hasn't bought enough

I'm not, where are schools supposed to get the money from?

Where are the teachers supposed to find the money? They're getting through a bottle day! Plus there's the time involved after work buying it.

I was amazed at hearing how teachers are buying handwash for the children in their class to use as the school hasn't bought enough.

I've done this anyway before. School budgets are absolutely stretched to the max, the last few years have been a joke, when I think back to budgets in the past. My school are good on hygiene though actually, partially because of the recent norovirus outbreak and because we are sen.

Here is the advice from the WHO for countries outside China:

Where are the teachers supposed to find the money?

We are used to buying for our classes. I barely think about it now unless it's creeping over £5 and then I try to claim it back.

Source:
www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

I buy an extra bottle every week for my class. Also, not allowed to use strong chemicals like bleach in schools so they must be quite dirty really.

And the advice of the WHO to the general public:

Schools and colleges need to shut!

My friend said she has to buy hand soap, paper towels and table cleaner, flash most probably. That all adds up. Each week she suspects it'll be an extra £12. I think that's excessive. £5 here and there, ok, but she's struggling to pay bills and mortgage as it is.

@nellodee

Yes, PLANNING and SIMULATIONS for if and when it’s necessary!!

Yes, it's ridiculous. I don't like having to do it. I'm buying other things like books and resources too. But I then know they're mine to keep.

So, we should plan for it, but never do it? Do you really think that's their advice? Because the WHO did not tell us in their report exactly when to trigger that response, we should not bother triggering it? Like I say, we can show you the reports, and you will STILL come up with a reason why you are right and everyone else is wrong.

Apologies if this has already been said:
I think government should let parents keep children off now without fear of reprisals or fines if they wish to and are able - this would reduce the numbers within schools without closing them completely, helping to slow down the spread- they should offer the same to all companies for staff able to wfh even if it's only half the time - the aim now is surely to ensure the population doesn't all get it at once

Forget about the first one then. Let's look at the advice to the general public. Are YOU actively ready to support a response to COVID-19 in a variety of ways, including the adoption of more stringent 'social distancing' practices? Because that is the WHO advice to YOU, and you do not seem to be taking it.

I think government should let parents keep children off now without fear of reprisals or fines if they wish to and are able - this would reduce the numbers within schools without closing them completely, helping to slow down the spread

I completely agree with this. It allows parents to make that choice.

I don’t think endless threads and on here, a whole bloody board dedicated to going on and on about it is helpful either. Surely one thread should be sufficient and all others deleted. And yes I’m aware I am contributing to this by posting on more than one thread.

So many people seem to be unable to maintain a healthy sense of perspective these days and social media and endless rolling news just makes it worse. 30 years ago we’d have had a few news bulletins a day, a morning paper, and a chat with friends and neighbours for a few minutes. Constantly going on and on and on about the same thing is just making people feel worse. Like I said I am not unconcerned. Like many people I have close relatives who would be in the high risk groups including my father going into hospital for cancer treatment this week. I think closing schools around the Easter holidays and cancelling large gatherings are sensible. It is going to get worse but constantly fretting and going over the same old stuff isn’t going to make it any better. I also think someone else made a good point about not delaying the peak too much so we’re stuffed next winter. Although then we will hopefully be close to a vaccine at least.

OP is a doctor in mental not physical health.

I think the government should let parents keep children off now without fear of reprisals or fines if they wish to and are able
They also need to drop performance related pay for teachers, sats, league tables, Ofsted and other pressures. You can't expect children to make progress if they're not there.

I apologise for losing my temper a little there. I have just read so many well thought out posts, with citations, and links, and data, and analyses.... and then so many other posts complaining about people "scaremongering" that I got frustrated.

No-one has come on here posting pictures of Chinese officials allegedly shooting people, or burning people alive in bodybags, or talking about governments designing the virus as a bioweapon or any of the other Facebook bullshit that has been doing the rounds. People are calmly and rationally exchanging verified information from trusted sources.