Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

I agree with OP. It is going to happen anyway so if by bringing it forward we can save vulnerable lives we should do so.

Im in Ireland and no signs of it happening here. Looks like economics are being prioritised over health with St Patricks Day celebrations going ahead.

17 days ago, Italy had no known cases. Now they have3,800cases (averages out at 211 new cases per day, but more likey 50, then 100, then 200 etc). They've had
148 SARS-CoV-2 related deaths, and have now quarantined 16 million people (a quarter of the population?).

Research indicates there's already two strains of the virus, it's already mutated to jump species at least once, and has the potential to mutate again.

If their are at least 11 million over 65's in the UK, and 0.01% catch the virus, that's still 11,000 people. If as many as 1% caught it, that would be a 110,000 people. That's not counting anyone with a low immune system, asthma etc.

I don't think we're doing enough. I watched a video online of people fighting over a pack of loo roll. Half a dozen people pawing at each other and the loo roll itself, and goodness what all six have touched/whose touched or coughed or sneezed on the loo roll earlier that day. Not one was wearing gloves, or santised their hands after. It's madness, panic buying, but putting yourself at risk of catching the damn thing whilst doing do.

I do think we're in a better position than the USA though. At one stage Trump was claiming the virus was made up by the democrats, to spoil the election...

The sooner there's a vaccine the better (could the nhs afford it though..?) Until then, I do think if the number of cases in the UK increases in the next few weeks, we should try find a way to impliment similar measures as Italy. Prevention is better than a cure.

*there excuse typos sorry

That's a scary perspective

I suppose the issue is that this thing is going to be here now for a year or more until they get a vaccine.

Humps will occur regularly. Though asthma is always better in the summer. If I and my son avoid it till then I'll feel more at ease.

*And sorry the 211, should have been 233, I did the math on 18 days, realised by the end of the post it was 17, and fogot to update the figure.

I think for some people with generalised anxiety something like this can become a focus for their anxiety and, in some ways, actually be beneficial because they are focusing on a specific concern and can deal with it as appropriate rather than feeling anxious about nothing in particular all the time.

I think it’s best to just keep your DC off school if they’re ill, even with a cold, when you’d normally send them in. It’s better to keep even small illnesses at bay.

My children's secondary is like a massive crush at break time, they are squashed in like sardines. Of course meeting two others round at someone's house isn't the same!

My vote would be for strategic closure, with some skeleton facilities left for staff who can work and pupils who have no-one to take care of them at home (esp for essential staff). Free-school meals could still run in some form although parents may have to collect them.

Some people on this thread seem to think the goal is either no transmission or you just give up and let it spread. What's the point of closing schools if you just let kids go to shopping malls? Well- collectively as a society, we have to accept that having large amounts of elderly die is socially unacceptable, so we don't allow our children to hang in shopping malls, or we close them altogether for a short period.

Same with - we can't close the schools because of free school meals/no childcare- the schools are already closed 13 weeks a year! People have to have childcare or food for their kids on those weeks. So we have to do more of the things we do in those 13 weeks, and put initiatives in place to try to catch some of the worst effects for those that will struggle to do this.

This is such a great post that it deserved to be posted twice. (Applauds)

A lot of people on this thread seem to have no idea of how diseases spread.

If nothing is done and schools etc continue as normal here, people will continue to holiday over Easter as normal-and travel will be widespread. I think it’ll all get massively worse next month if that happens.

If schools are closed and warnings about working from home if possible and not travelling unless essential given, then it would be a really good step to damage limitation.

I think it is a mad idea to send teachers and students to different schools if schools start struggling to cope.
It could be really tricky. Many younger children and those who aren't neurotypical could found that extremely disorientating and upsetting. Teachers are going to find it really hard to teach in anything like an effective manner as they may not be with an age or stage that they have a lot of experience in. Mr Jones may be a fantastic food tech teacher but will end up having to cover girls' pe and GCSE maths. Ms Smith may have been a whizz at working with year 5 and 6 but suddenly finds herself with nursery children. Teachers are a marvellously flexible bunch but it will really only be glorified child care.
A teacher who is suddenly asked to take a year 3 class in a different school isn't going to run the catch up reading group as well ( if at all) as the usual teacher when she doesn't know the school systems or any of the children and the TA is off sick and the class has been combined with half of the year 4 group be sure of staff illness and different students are off I'll all the time.
Then what about students with problems? Imagine the 6 year old who tends to be aggressive to his peers because of really bad past experiences and is managed very carefully by the teacher and TA that know him so that he doesn't have meltdowns or throw equipment at other children. What will happen when he is suddenly sent to another school down the road because his school doesn't have enough staff to stay open? Especially when he is then being taught by another teacher who is unfamiliar with the school and his age group and is managing a class of 38 on her own?
It will be mass babysitting at best but very unsatisfactory!

@DameHannahRelf I agree with you.

If the schools were to shut, could GCSE and A-level pupils still attend, as they're older and hopefully have more sense when it comes to hand washing etc? It would be easier for education authorities and schools to equip the staff and pupils of two older year groups, with gloves, a good hand washing/sanitser routine etc, than the whole school.

Would it be possible to disenfect schools while pupils are off for Easter, then again during the summer? A proper deep clean, beyond what the regular cleaners usually do in the holidays (taking time off themselves, scrubbing walls, and scrapping gum off the bottom of desks).

The most accurate true mortality rate at present is from South Korea, the only country so far to have tested large numbers of the asymptomatic/trivially affected population, as opposed to those who are obviously ill.

They have had 7314 confirmed cases and 50 deaths, giving a mortality rate of 0.68.

I think it is a mad idea to send teachers and students to different schools if schools start struggling to cope

I can’t see this ever happening-it would be a logistical nightmare for all of those reasons you’ve listed. I would imagine DBS and insurance would be prohibitive, let alone the obvious spread of contamination. If enough of my colleagues/children are off ill that my school has to close and be merged with a school down the road, I’m probably carrying it too!

It’s like the old ‘teachers must rock up at their nearest school to teach if your own school is closed due to snow’ line that’s rolled out every winter. It might have worked in part in the 70s when all schools were LA, but it never happens now.

How about if you don't think you'll die from the virus, you carry on usual, wash your hands, don't go coughing into vulnerable peoples faces then if and when you get the virus, you take the actions required? For vulnerable people that are likely to die/get complications from the virus, we need a plan. We only need a plan for those people though. They need to be priority for healthcare, paid sick leave etc. The rest of us will cope and keep things ticking over and ride out our 2 weeks of mild cold symptoms.

The government need to decide when it becomes mandatory for vulnerable people to be isolated from catching the virus and the rest of the population should assist in ensuring we do all we can to allow for those people being missing from the workforce. Healthy people self isolating, stocking piling etc is selfish and not going to help matters at all

211 confirmed cases among a population of 66+ million. The 1st case was at the end of January so around 5/6 weeks ago.

China has a population of 1.4 billion, and has had 80,000 confirmed cases.

Threads like this make me rage. It's nothing more than scaremongering and making people panic. There is a tiny tiny chance of catching this virus.

Whitty says that a coronavirus epidemic in the UK is now likely, do you know otherwise @Toria70?

Except China literally shut down the country. How many more would have been infected had they not done this? You cannot draw a comparison.

North Korea had 50 cases, on the 19th February (18 days ago). Now it's 7,314.

0.68% of over 65's in the UK, would mean 74,800 elderly.

Unless we act, to limit the spread of the virus!

The rest of us will cope and keep things ticking over and ride out our 2 weeks of mild cold symptoms.

I think that is a misunderstanding of "mild".
As I understand it, the definition of mild cases from the China out real is those that have not required hospital intervention for pneumonia or other breathing problems. Many of the "mild" cases have been like serious flu requiring weeks off work plus antibiotics if a secondary bacterial pneumonia starts. Many of us who aren't in a vulnerable category would still be way too I'll to work for several weeks even if we didn't need hospital treatment.

We have more elderly than China or South Korea, I'm reading.

Age 65+: 14% in SK, 18% of whole population in UK.
So we would lose more people, in theory, due to having more of the vulnerable group.
If those %s are right. Maybe I have wrong numbers.

Do we shut down our entire society in what will be a mostly failed attempt to stop all the elderly getting covid19? What does 'reduce' or 'delay' or whatever they are calling phase2 mean? Does it really mean self-isolating anyone who might be incubating, which seems to be the current expectation.

Toria70 - you do realise this is a pandemic, spreads exponentially, and we’re in the very early stages of it? You do realise Italy have quarantined a quarter of their population and they had no cases a few weeks ago? You do realise the global stock markets are tanking as other people realise the virus is going to cause enormous disruption? You do realise some people on here realise their chances of dying are very very low, but can do the maths and realise at peak time of infection many people will die?

You do realise every day from now your chances of catching the virus will increase exponentially?

@Dame - South Korea - goodness know the stats in North Korea