Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

At the moment the government (and most governments) appear to think that the economic impact of draconian measures will be greater than the economic impact of widespread transmission. They also seem to think that the economic impact is the measure by which they should be making decisions over what to do. It is a kind of cold economic utilitarianism that disregards the sanctity of human life in favour of the sanctity of the economy. My view is that it is not only morally bankrupt, but also I think they have got the maths wrong. The failure to introduce draconian measures banning the vast majority of travel from China may have prevented a crash in January, but it will result in far more damage by the end of the year. This is why people are panic buying - they are preparing incase they need to hibernate for at least a month. The impact of that on the economy will be massive.

What is needed is closure of schools AND all other childcare settings AND full pay for those who have to take time from work to care for their children individually or in very small groups AND full pay for those adults who need to self-isolate from workplaces due to health vulnerabilities AND some magical bottomless well of people with no childcare responsibilities to continue to staff truly essential services (NHS, social care, elderly care, food transport, preparation and distribution, law and order, etc etc).

It can't all be done. It certainly can't only be done by closing just schools.

And the impact on the photographer who doesn’t get paid?

People are going to have to decide which one of them is not going to work if schools are closed. Of course it will have an impact on the photographer and his family but that is how it is going to be, some people won't be able to work (there is no way I will be able to work if the schools close no matter what I do) and they will be impacted.

My point, which you are ignoring, is that there is zero impact on the community if a local paper has no photos in it. There will always be an impact on the families unless they are independently wealthy.

*Just throwing it out there, what is the youngest feasible age for kids to be home alone (with regular phone check ins)? 8? What about with younger siblings?

Clearly the normal ‘rules’ or societal norms are going to need to flex here. Someone I know is claiming she won’t be able to work because she has 3 kids, 11, 9 and 5. Is there no way, with specific do/don’t instructions, they could be home alone at least some of the time??*

Schools allow children to leave at home time without being collected by someone when they're 8 so that's a good guideline for the age they are considered safe alone. Depending on the level of maturity id leave the 9 and 11 year olds at home, with a friendly neighbour being a go to in emergency, but it does depend on the children, ie 2 boys might spend the whole day fighting or spend the whole day on the xboxes. Leaving the 5 year old with them would be too much responsibility.

Maybe I'm misreading this thread, but there seems to be an assumption made that if schools were to close, families with two working parents, or one working single parent, could afford to take time off work unpaid to care for their younger children. That just won't fly, will it?

From the death of all their grandparents simultaneously?
That's an unlikely scenario. Yes the death rate is higher in these groups but it's not 100%. Even in the over 80s its only around 20%. Not significant but not certain death either.

What will happen if you close schools? What will happen to those children whose parents can't work from home or take time off? They will go to grandparents and potentially transmit the illness to people who are much more likely to actually die from it.

My point, which you are ignoring, is that there is zero impact on the community if a local paper has no photos in it

I’m not ignoring it.

The very harsh reality for a lot of people is both wages are essential. That’s the crux of the matter and why I posted before that contingency plans have to be in place before widespread closures are considered.

I don't think you can assume (or even expect) that people will make the socially optimal choice. If you have one parent who does, say, a well paid consultancy role in financial services and the second who is maybe a carer or a healthcare assistant then in many families financial necessity will mean it's the carer who stays at home even though their job has a greated social need.

I've just been discussing with DH. If the schools are not closed by the end of this week we are probably taking ours out anyway. They are in Year 10 and Year 8 so the year 10 situation isn't great but that child will work hard at home anyway. The year 8 will be more of a struggle in terms of school work but he'll be fine.

This is why the govt hasn't closed schools. They know this. They've modelled it. They know that total lockdown now, simply pushes the peak disease curve into next winter

I think there is something in this. There will be a surge next winter anyway, but as we're coming into warmer weather I suspect the government would prefer the virus to peak sooner rather than later. I wonder if it was autumn now they would react differently.

The time to close schools if at all, and everything else, is now until after the Easter holidays. I don't think it'll happen though.

8yo? You certainly wouldn't be able to let a child walk home alone from our school at that age. That would be children setting off to walk home alone in year 3. But, of course, this is MN so when they get home they probably put together a three course meal and put the hoover around when they get home.

Schools allow children to leave at home time without being collected by someone when they're 8

Year 4? Not schools where I am, they don't.

Wtf is going to want to look after other kids when they have their own
I'd be happy to do play dates for my DDs school friends on the days I don't work to help out classmates whose parents need childcare. On the provision that the kids were well.

My CM will stay open unless she gets a confirmed case in her setting and has to self isolate.
If think if schools shut then nurseries might shut too though.

I've just been discussing with DH. If the schools are not closed by the end of this week we are probably taking ours out anyway. They are in Year 10 and Year 8 so the year 10 situation isn't great but that child will work hard at home anyway. The year 8 will be more of a struggle in terms of school work but he'll be fine.

And will one of you be at home? (I appreciate age-wise you don't need to be)

The person who mentioned playdates - what's the point of closing schools if children will gather anyway? The point is not to gather in groups isn't it?

I suppose @eeeyoresmiles it depends on whether your main concern is the virus eg if you are at risk of being severely impacted by it or your own kids. I do agree with the point on losing grandparents, sadly something mine are facing just now virus or no virus, :(

So far 106,000 cases worldwide and 3,590 deaths. UK population 65 mill approx and 1 confirmed death (1 unconfirm - he had the virus but not confirmed that is what caused his death). Annual flu epidemic approx 5 million severe cases around the world and 650,000 deaths (WHO).

A little perspective - yes it is serious and precautions must be taken. I work in SEN college and very vulnerable students - we have been advised on handwashing (2 x Happy Birthday), catch, bin, kill - wiping surfaces eg keyboards, door handles etc with special wipes.

Quite why the person in front of me in Sainsbury's needed 96 loo rolls is another matter (very large family perhaps)!

Older kids will just hang around shopping malls/cinemas etc and risk spreading it there

The point is not to gather in groups isn't it?
not to gather in big groups. 3 or 4 kids at home is very different to 30 plus kids at school especially when you factor in that with lunchtime and assemblies that could be 400 kids together.

If you close the schools to "stop" coronavirus, you also have to close borders (outbound), close museums, cafes, parks, zoos, shopping complexes, every place children can mingle. You have to forbid the elderly from providing childcare (unless primary carer)

This is exactly what they are now doing in Northern Italy. All of these types of places, plus even funerals and weddings- stopped. No ski resorts, no tourist destinations, no museums.

I am puzzled what the gov't actually want us to do. Should I continue to eat out to support the local economy or stay home to be socially responsible and not spread anything?

Surely if everyone is socially responsible and practices social isolation, then the economy will be affected anyway- holidays, hotels, eating out. That's unavoidable now, surely?

It’s entirely up to the parents, nanny

Older kids will just hang around shopping malls/cinemas etc and risk spreading it there

In Italy they are shutting shopping malls in the week.

Staying in is staying in, not wandering around shopping.

It can be done, if your international reputation and economy is tanking anyway and your NHS overwhelmed.

How many more times: schools can only stay open as long as staff are well.

what's the point of closing schools if children will gather anyway? The point is not to gather in groups isn't it?

There's a huge difference between a few children getting together to play, and 100s / 1000s of students using the same facilities and equipment as well as being in close proximity to many others.