Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

@kingofkings

Because I’m a parent, this is a parenting matter, and this is a parents forum.

What specialty are you in?

Apparently consultant psychiatry, which makes the OP slightly disingenuous.

@FurrySlipperBoots Because putting 6 together at a childminders poses a fifth of risk of putting 30 together in a classroom. Then factor in break times with 100s or children mingling, and lesson switches where different groups of children come together.

I wish people would stop squawking that closing schools won’t make a difference. Have you seen kolos graph?

I think probably extending Easter holidays is sensible. I wonder if the “close all schools now” thing comes more from people with kids in primary school where it wouldn’t have much impact on their education. If your children were in high school and sitting important exams I doubt they’d be so blasé about it.

I read something yesterday which suggested a peak around Easter (obviously people will still get it after) so given current reported infections of just over 200 here is it really likely to end up in the millions in just over a month?

I do think we need to learn lessons from Italy but I also think some people (not those with legitimate worries for themselves/family members) are thriving on the drama. Yes the virus needs to be contained but people also need to be able to live their lives to fuel the economy.

It’s a pleasure to meet you, Professor.

I am indeed raising this higher up at work, as I’m sure you are too.

Plenty of people saying Look at Italy but try looking at Germany, there have NO deaths, and 800 positive cases as of today.

Furry slipper boots, theres1700 kids in my school. Who is going to supervise them washing their hands?😂

@Slazengerbag, I've also seen evidence indicating that some kids in secondary are making a 'joke' of deliberately trying to spread germs, perhaps to get the school closed.

I have to say I’m with you OP. We have three kids two in primary and I think the schools will close here before the Easter break. I think we will possibly follow what’s happening in Italy. There has to be some action to slow the spread, it’s in no way ideal and it will cause everything else to slow down. But that might just be what we need.

Coronavirus took off after half term due to all the holidays abroad to Northern Italy. The very idea of closing schools whilst leaving borders open alongside cheap overseas coronavirus crisis holiday deals is madness. The first thing thousands of families will do is take advantage of the cheap deals it's just the flu bro and take their kids abroad.

Over the following weeks, as families return from holiday and hand the kids over to elderly family for childcare, illness will absolutely explode.

If you close the schools to "stop" coronavirus, you also have to close borders (outbound), close museums, cafes, parks, zoos, shopping complexes, every place children can mingle. You have to forbid the elderly from providing childcare (unless primary carer).

The above measures would be obviously ludicrous - but without which closing schools would be not just pointless, but would actually worsen the crisis and cause an explosion of coronavirus which would be impossible to reverse.

Closing schools will absolutely also do horrendous damage to the economy and imperil essential services (incl. the top to bottom food supply chain, from point of sale all the way back to the mechanic garage which changes the tyres on the trucks which deliver the food) which will put further lives in peril.

It's not expected that we'll have an effective vaccine for 12 to 18 months, if at all, and this would take significant further time to manufacture 6 billion doses and distribute world wide.

This is why the govt hasn't closed schools. They know this. They've modelled it. They know that total lockdown now, simply pushes the peak disease curve into next winter - this awaits China when they relent on restrictions.

Our primary school is a large one, 600+ children, I have been expecting it to be closed. There are a few children in my dc classes that have compromised immunity, and so do my in laws.
I do think there needs to be something quite drastic done asap, similar to the measures Italy have taken.

I think probably extending Easter holidays is sensible. I wonder if the “close all schools now” thing comes more from people with kids in primary school where it wouldn’t have much impact on their education. If your children were in high school and sitting important exams I doubt they’d be so blasé about it.

I have a child doing GCSEs, and the thing I can't be blasé about is the virus. Even if exams were to be delayed or cancelled, we would all cope. It's not as though it would be happening only to my child, and not to anyone else's. Of all the undesirable consequences of schools closing, external exams are arguably one of the less important ones. 2020 will just always have been a weird year for exams, some people will get predicted grades, future applications for colleges and universities and even jobs will be able to take that into account, there may be knock on effects beyond that but, again, it would be manageable.

Things like the childcare issue (especially for NHS and other essential staff, but for lots of people who will struggle financially), the safety of children who might be left alone (actually more relevant for primary aged children), and kids not getting free school meals, are more important. But even with all those issues, school closures are probably still going to have to happen very soon.

Kids who can be kept home being kept home seems like something that would help from right now, but it's not something any country seems to have gone for (although maybe individuals still did it?) - they all seem to have gone straight for full closures. I think people need to plan for that happening, unfortunately.

I agree. It would be fine for us though. We can both WFH and have a nanny that comes to our house.

That is such a naive lack of basic understanding of economics that it is difficult to know what to say in reply.

No it's not. If a local paper doesn't have photos in it then the impact on society is far less (i.e. none) than if a doctor/nurse/refuse collector/teacher doesn't go to work. I was not talking about economics but about social need - read my PP again.

I agree OP.
The schools will close anyway, but it could be a Horse/Stable door situation. We need to act proactively, to limit spread.
We all need to also take individual responsibility. Limiting social contact , not shaking hands or hugging etc.
I have a teenage dd, she and her friends hug all the time in school, the virus will very swiftly spread through the schools and out into the community.

Paddy it beggars belief that there are no measures in place to reduce transmission. Not even alcohol hand gel...

My friend works for an insurance company (they're good at assessing risk) and there's been a travel ban since last week, all vulnerable workers to WFH and others to WFH where they can.

Private industry seems to actually be taking this more seriously than the government.

I get that it will be difficult to instigate WFH more widely very quickly, with some problems but that seems a small price to pay to save lives and save doctors sanity and wellbeing (we are herding doctors towards an untenable working environment like in Italy right now - it is disgusting).

DH works in education and they're doing nothing either - even though they could easily shift some things to be virtual.

It really reminds me of the band playing on the Titanic to be honest. But in their case there was nothing they could have done. In ours, we KNOW - we have China and Italy as examples.

Well done Paddy for doing what you can, and for speaking up about your concerns.

No it's not. If a local paper doesn't have photos in it then the impact on society is far less (i.e. none) than if a doctor/nurse/refuse collector/teacher doesn't go to work. I was not talking about economics but about social need - read my PP again

And the impact on the photographer who doesn’t get paid?

Agree with eeeyoresmiles
I also have a child doing GCSEs.

Kids can cope with their education being disrupted for a year even. They can recover from that. From the death of all their grandparents simultaneously? I suspect that would affect their education in a much worse way.

DH works in education and often he sees students who have 'mitigating circumstances' for not getting the exam grades predicted - things like a grandparent dying or parents being very ill. If you close schools you may avoid more children having to deal with those factors. Seems worth it to me.

Also, kids CAN learn from home of course.

@Thewheelsarefallingoff

I don't think the nanny should still be coming if you're all self-isolating!

They would all congregate at one person's house for childcare reasons and therefore end up with it anyway.

Wtf is going to want to look after other kids when they have their own. Childcare will be gone in most forms, childcare workers get ill too.
Kids have free childcare in the form of a parent, not ideal but looks like we are all going to have to question how we live.
But please, stop thinking sahp's are going to take your kids, it's a global epidemic.

No it's not. If a local paper doesn't have photos in it then the impact on society is far less (i.e. none)

The impact on that unpaid photographer is fairly high though.

@aridane he’s a doctor

For the individual that’s a nightmare marie but on a societal level, it barely matters a jot.