US and Israel strike Iran. (title edited by MNHQ at request of the OP)

[Twiglets1]

Israel attacked Iran early on Saturday morning, saying it had “launched a pre-emptive strike against Iran to remove threats to the state of Israel,” according to a military spokesman.

Israel closed its airspace and declared a state of emergency, in anticipation of
Iranian drone and missile strikes in response.

Explosions were heard in Tehran on Saturday, Iranian media reported.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/28/israel-launches-attack-on-iran-as-explosions-heard-in-tehran

Maybe @RedTagAlan

Though let’s face it, Iranian military targets will get pounded whatever. The US & Israel have their targets and won’t be distracted by Iran strikes in Turkey.

The Iranian regime don’t seem logical in any way to me so it’s probably pointless me even trying to understand their thinking but I can’t help just wondering how it makes sense to them.

Apology accepted, and thanks for being so gracious about it.

It's a common stereotype, and the understanding of religion in the U.S. by the press in the UK could kindly be called superficial.

Anyway, Turkey has warned "all parties to refrain from actions that would lead to further escalation," according to Reuters, suggesting it is not poised to call upon NATO for support.

Yes I understand that now. Thank you for accepting my apology x

True. It’s scary to think what that stage would be like in some years with greater capacity.

I think it’s considerable, given the rather chaotic nature of the Iranian counterattacks compared to the 12 Day War last year.

Their doctrine is to delegate launch authority to field commanders in the event that C&C is degraded, and that appears to be what has happened.

Spain can just do one.

Good point.

I mentioned in a post above why I think Iran are attacking all over. I suggested it's to force the defenders to use up ammo.

This from CNN just now.

"Top executives from US defense contractors are set to visit the White House on Friday to discuss ramping up weapons production, a White House official told CNN.

President Donald Trump has sought to project confidence in US military capacity, saying Tuesday there was a “virtually unlimited supply” of US munitions and that “wars can be fought ‘forever,’ and very successfully, using just these supplies.”

Earlier Tuesday, the president told Politico that defense manufacturers are operating under emergency authorities to accelerate weapons production."

The US are short of ammo. This war was not planned.

If they run out of ammo for the anti missile defences before Iran runs out of missiles and drones, then the US bases are left open to attack.

Remember, Patriots are about a million each. And they don't fall from a production line like artillery shells do. Same goes for air to air missiles on jets.

Also remember stuff has to be held back because there are other countries in the world that will also be counting the ammo the US are using.

Won't Iran run out of ammo first?

Isn't it a sad indictment of our times though, when you have the protagonists bragging about how they can fight wars indefinitely, yet don't invest in infrastructure in peace times.... unlimited funds for death and destruction, but not for addressing domestic inequality or investment.... just sayin.....

The US are short of ammo. This war was not planned.

I think that's a surprising statement, given the amount of movement of military assents to the region before the action against Iran was launched.

@MissConductUS will know more but I think Patriot rounds are more like $3 -5 million a pop (depending on varient) and some other systems (THAAD and some.of the Israeli) a lot more.

Probably an even bigger problem is production rate - maybe 1 or 2 a day for Patriot ???

They have been preparing for this for 50 years. Add to that their stuff is simple and relatively easy to make. So it is about who runs out first, and it is not a foregone conclusion it will be Iran.

If the US were to run low on patriots/interceptor missiles, the danger for Iran could be that the US might be more likely to simply take a carpet bombing approach to wiping out Iran’s capacity to keep firing off drones and missiles in the first place. Rather than more strategic, targeted operations like we’ve seen when they took out Khameini.

Exactly. And that is why, IMO, Diego Garcia is so important. Because that is where the B52 are.

The number of Iranian missiles and drones isn’t the same as the number of intercepts needed. Iranian munitions are not very good. Most will not need shooting down. They can fly happily into the desert or sea and deal death to a passing camel or dolphin.

Some will blow up over or on Iran itself.

Also, I very much hope - TBH, expect - that Israeli intelligence is finding mobile launchers and drone storage facilities and that they and the US are dropping precision bombs on them.

Not really...we don't know what was moved, what wasn't, but a lot of the fancy ordnance is simply too expensive (see my pp) to have lots of reloads in the inventory.

If you've ever been privvy to some of the real world numbers for some guided weapons you'd find it quite scary how little reserve might be held in the bunkers 🤐

Another factor that hasn't helped is a lot of stock has gone to Ukraine.....and that's where the West should have learnt that insisting on using something like Patriot (at x million a pop) against every cheap Shahed drone that's inbound is a good way to run out of ammo.

The US is short of ammo?

Is this wishful thinking?

It’s not fanciful. There are only so many very expensive missiles that even the US can make and store. But I think the concern is overstated. Iran does not have some overwhelming stockpile of deadly attack weapons. It has a large, but not that large, number of Poundland missiles and drones.

And there will be far fewer of them after a few days of constant bombardment by Israel and the US. There is no air defence to speak of in Iran now. The skies belong to its opponents’ airforces.

Ukraine mainly got older stuff. To be replaced with new. So the factories have been replacing, not stockpiling.

And as I said above, when the US miliary start pulling stocks in from other places, Okinawa for example, it potentially leaves those places with nothing.

Places such as Taiwan, that has a real threat, can only defend for a while. The plan was always that the calvary would arrive eventually.

Stocks of countries, the Gulf States for example, can be calculated from defense spend and unit cost. Sky had an article on it earlier. The analysts were saying 12 hours ago that stocks they have would be well down. If they spent enough to buy a thousand missiles, and report they have intercepted 500 drones/missiles, then it's easy maths.

Patriots are about $6m for the last Mark, and the THAAD interceptors are $12.6m.

Production rates for the PAT MSE domestically are about 600 rounds pa, with another 250-300 pa produced abroad under license agreements. There is already a contract in place to ramp that up to 2000 units pa by next year.

Current magazine depth is classified, but I suspect there are a lot in the locker in U.S. hands worldwide.

I'll defer to @notimagain on this, but the USAF doesn't do carpet bombing anymore. The dumb bombs are easily retrofitted with a GPS guidance kit that costs about $2k.

The USAF heavy bombers that are suppressing Iranian missile fire are doing so mostly by collapsing the entrances to the underground storage areas.

https://www.twz.com/air/b-2-spirits-join-iran-air-war-pummel-underground-missile-caves

I'm shocked that it hasn't been mentioned here, but a USN fast attack sub has sunk an Iranian frigate off the coast of Sri Lanka.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/4/at-least-100-missing-after-iranian-military-ship-sinks-off-sri-lanka-coast

My understanding is that these boats don't always carry warshots when on routine patrol, but I could be wrong. I'm ex-Army, so it's a bit out of my lane.

Yeah, JDAM. Isreal make them and put the US GPS kit on. I believe.

But if the fighters they normally use are tied up on anti missile defence, it means the targets inside Iran are left. So prolongs the war.

Limited number of B2, and they have super long mission time, Need refueling, and Spain and UK say no. So that means limited in air refueling.

I would not dismiss carpet bombing. That is what they keep the B52 for.