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Conflict in the Middle East
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42
SharonEllis · 18/01/2026 11:54

Opinions on Pahlavi differ greatly, why would they not? Iran is huge and diverse. The population is young - most of them won't remember the Shah.

Addybee · 18/01/2026 12:12

Like any country with a political system, it is unrealistic to expect an entire population to unanimously agree on one leader, one regime, or one political vision. That is simply not how societies work. What is clear, however, is that a large proportion of Iranians want this dictatorship gone. What comes after is uncertain, but ideally it would be a future where people are finally able to decide for themselves. I have said before that I do not support any figure currently positioned to take power. The reality is that there is no coherent or unified alternative at present. Someone needs to be a credible voice of opposition, a figure who can say these people are protesting and I stand with them. One of the main reasons past movements have failed is that people took to the streets without leadership capable of translating protest into political change

What also needs to be addressed is the repeated claim that these protests are the result of foreign interference. These movements have been increasing in frequency over the past decade, well before current political figures became relevant. Examples include the 2017–2018 nationwide protests, the November 2019 fuel price protests, the January 2020 protests following the downing of Flight PS752, the 2022–2023 Woman, Life, Freedom movement, the 2025 farmers’ and bakers’ protests, and now these demonstrations. During most of these uprisings, they were understood as grassroots responses to domestic repression, corruption, and economic hardship, not foreign orchestration

The recent fixation on foreign interference has largely emerged because of Reza Pahlavi’s visibility and his perceived closeness to Israel. That is a separate issue and one of the reasons many Iranians do not support him as a viable alternative. Conflating this with the origins of the protests is misleading. There was no foreign interference that created these movements. They were initiated by the people and they continue because those same people are still out on the streets. Are outside actors now attempting to influence events behind the scenes? Possibly. No one is naïve about how international politics works. But the foundation of this movement is internal and driven by lived reality, not foreign agendas

also re relaxed enforcement in certain areas, such as women appearing without hijab, this presents a distorted picture of life in Iran. These visible freedoms exist almost exclusively in wealthier neighbourhoods where money and influence offer protection. In most parts of the country, people continue to live in fear. A glimpse of superficial freedom is not the same as living with real, guaranteed rights.

It is about basic, everyday freedoms. Owning and walking a dog is illegal for goodness sake, yes people do it but if the police feel like it they can definitely take the pet away and have it put down again this comes down to the wealthy and them having protections but why should people have to pay for basic things like dressing how they want or owning a dog etc. Women are barred from attending football matches in stadiums. These are ordinary aspects of life elsewhere, yet they remain forbidden. The poorest and most vulnerable suffer the most under these restrictions. People in Iran are not asking for anything extraordinary. They are asking for the simple freedoms many in the West take for granted. The fact that this is still so difficult for some to understand is part of the problem.

What is especially infuriating is watching some of the most religious and regime-sympathetic Muslims ( my own so called friends) living comfortably in the West, enjoying every freedom it offers, while arguing that Iranians do not deserve those same rights. I have seen comments online saying that if Iran becomes free, it would somehow be bad for Palestine, and that the Iranian people are an acceptable sacrifice as long as Palestine remains “resistant.” The level of moral detachment required to think like that is staggering.

I even know people within our own circles who openly support the regime, and that in itself is not the issue. As I have said, no society will ever agree on one political position. What makes it hypocritical is that these same people left Iran shortly after the regime came to power, have built their lives in the West, and enjoy freedoms that they now see to think is too much. Many of them have not even returned since. If the system they defend is truly so just and righteous, the question is simple. Why are they not living under it themselves

( sorry for my long boring essays guys 😰)

SharonEllis · 18/01/2026 12:18

Moral clarity is not boring @Addybee. 👏

RedSongBird · 18/01/2026 12:34

OpheliaIsntMad · 18/01/2026 11:45

You misunderstand me.
I am not saying there is agreement amongst Iranians about what or who should replace the current dictatorship.
But I believe it is clear that most Iranians do not support the current dictatorship …. Why else would the regime have to employ such draconian methods as frequent executions, terror and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard.
Some of your posts indicated that you felt the protesters were being manipulated by foreign powers.
I strongly dispute that.

Edited

I think we may have misunderstood each other. I’m agreeing that a significant number, even the majority, I don’t actually know, of the population want a change in leadership and are ready to revolt. Think of it as a country that has gone through a long drought; in this case an economic drought but I’m talking literally; and is ready to go up in flames. It needs a spark though. Now a random spark may start a localised bush fire, but that would be fairly easy to suppress. If, on the other hand, a group of nefarious foreign actors were to wait for the right time, high winds, and lit multiple fires in strategic locations, it might result in a fire that goes out of control and cannot be suppressed. That might be a lousy analogy but I’m trying to show how foreign agents can interfere to overthrow a government.

SharonEllis · 18/01/2026 12:53

This is so implausible, its nonsense. There is no way people in practically every town in Iran were triggered by 'nefarious' foreign agents to put their lives on the line knowing absolutely that many of them would be killed, arrested, imprisoned, tortured, economically ruined etc.

And anyway, what is 'nefarious' about supporting a legitimate resistance? And why shouldn't Israel assist when Iran would obliterate Israel if it could. Israel spends billions to defend its people against Iran and its proxies.

RedSongBird · 18/01/2026 13:02

Addybee · 18/01/2026 12:12

Like any country with a political system, it is unrealistic to expect an entire population to unanimously agree on one leader, one regime, or one political vision. That is simply not how societies work. What is clear, however, is that a large proportion of Iranians want this dictatorship gone. What comes after is uncertain, but ideally it would be a future where people are finally able to decide for themselves. I have said before that I do not support any figure currently positioned to take power. The reality is that there is no coherent or unified alternative at present. Someone needs to be a credible voice of opposition, a figure who can say these people are protesting and I stand with them. One of the main reasons past movements have failed is that people took to the streets without leadership capable of translating protest into political change

What also needs to be addressed is the repeated claim that these protests are the result of foreign interference. These movements have been increasing in frequency over the past decade, well before current political figures became relevant. Examples include the 2017–2018 nationwide protests, the November 2019 fuel price protests, the January 2020 protests following the downing of Flight PS752, the 2022–2023 Woman, Life, Freedom movement, the 2025 farmers’ and bakers’ protests, and now these demonstrations. During most of these uprisings, they were understood as grassroots responses to domestic repression, corruption, and economic hardship, not foreign orchestration

The recent fixation on foreign interference has largely emerged because of Reza Pahlavi’s visibility and his perceived closeness to Israel. That is a separate issue and one of the reasons many Iranians do not support him as a viable alternative. Conflating this with the origins of the protests is misleading. There was no foreign interference that created these movements. They were initiated by the people and they continue because those same people are still out on the streets. Are outside actors now attempting to influence events behind the scenes? Possibly. No one is naïve about how international politics works. But the foundation of this movement is internal and driven by lived reality, not foreign agendas

also re relaxed enforcement in certain areas, such as women appearing without hijab, this presents a distorted picture of life in Iran. These visible freedoms exist almost exclusively in wealthier neighbourhoods where money and influence offer protection. In most parts of the country, people continue to live in fear. A glimpse of superficial freedom is not the same as living with real, guaranteed rights.

It is about basic, everyday freedoms. Owning and walking a dog is illegal for goodness sake, yes people do it but if the police feel like it they can definitely take the pet away and have it put down again this comes down to the wealthy and them having protections but why should people have to pay for basic things like dressing how they want or owning a dog etc. Women are barred from attending football matches in stadiums. These are ordinary aspects of life elsewhere, yet they remain forbidden. The poorest and most vulnerable suffer the most under these restrictions. People in Iran are not asking for anything extraordinary. They are asking for the simple freedoms many in the West take for granted. The fact that this is still so difficult for some to understand is part of the problem.

What is especially infuriating is watching some of the most religious and regime-sympathetic Muslims ( my own so called friends) living comfortably in the West, enjoying every freedom it offers, while arguing that Iranians do not deserve those same rights. I have seen comments online saying that if Iran becomes free, it would somehow be bad for Palestine, and that the Iranian people are an acceptable sacrifice as long as Palestine remains “resistant.” The level of moral detachment required to think like that is staggering.

I even know people within our own circles who openly support the regime, and that in itself is not the issue. As I have said, no society will ever agree on one political position. What makes it hypocritical is that these same people left Iran shortly after the regime came to power, have built their lives in the West, and enjoy freedoms that they now see to think is too much. Many of them have not even returned since. If the system they defend is truly so just and righteous, the question is simple. Why are they not living under it themselves

( sorry for my long boring essays guys 😰)

Great post and explanation. I don’t think I would want to live in Iran under the clerics rule but I do hear from friends who go there regularly who say it is not as bad as people think. Having said that, as you said about the wealthy, they are not what you’d call poor so maybe benefit from the selective freedoms you talk about. I am not sure but my only concern is that if the clerics do relinquish power, the Iranian people will be able to be led by their own choice of leader and not a puppet that is foisted upon them.

SharonEllis · 18/01/2026 13:03

Far more significant foreign agent issue by the way, is the people the regime are bringing in to repress the protests such as Iraqi militia.

inamarina · 18/01/2026 13:32

SharonEllis · 18/01/2026 12:18

Moral clarity is not boring @Addybee. 👏

I second this. Please don’t apologise @Addybee, your posts are immensely informative 💐

38thparallel · 18/01/2026 17:11

For some mad reason, if the establishment media and pro Islamist commentators over here can brush it off as the Iranian people bring puppets of evil Israel/ US they can somehow turn a blind eye to the absolute horrors being inflicted upon innocent unarmed civilians.
Where is the humanity? And stop calling them rioters. They are resistance fighters and revolutionaries.

This 💯

HepzibahGreen · 18/01/2026 17:21

SharonEllis · 18/01/2026 13:03

Far more significant foreign agent issue by the way, is the people the regime are bringing in to repress the protests such as Iraqi militia.

Exactly!

SharonEllis · 18/01/2026 21:07

RedSongBird · 18/01/2026 13:02

Great post and explanation. I don’t think I would want to live in Iran under the clerics rule but I do hear from friends who go there regularly who say it is not as bad as people think. Having said that, as you said about the wealthy, they are not what you’d call poor so maybe benefit from the selective freedoms you talk about. I am not sure but my only concern is that if the clerics do relinquish power, the Iranian people will be able to be led by their own choice of leader and not a puppet that is foisted upon them.

Today I heard from one of my exiled (gay) Iranian friends who has had his first contact with his mother in 11 days. The internet went down again after 1 minute. 1 minute. I told him that I had it on good authority (you) that things are not as bad as he thinks. His response was 'Fuck the Islamic Republic' and his response to you would get me at least deleted, if not banned.

Ihatetomatoes · 18/01/2026 21:28

inamarina · 17/01/2026 10:55

Just read this brilliant post on X in response to a Piers Morgan interview with Roger Waters:

https://x.com/__Injaneb96/status/2012174949075787971

(…) ”And then, with zero shame, you side with the murderers and say “they don't want regime change”, not because you care about Iranians, but because you are obsessed with hating America and Israel. So any filth is acceptable to you as long as it is “anti-American” and “anti-Israel”?” (…)

This.

They show themselves.

OP posts:
Ihatetomatoes · 18/01/2026 21:29

38thparallel · 18/01/2026 17:11

For some mad reason, if the establishment media and pro Islamist commentators over here can brush it off as the Iranian people bring puppets of evil Israel/ US they can somehow turn a blind eye to the absolute horrors being inflicted upon innocent unarmed civilians.
Where is the humanity? And stop calling them rioters. They are resistance fighters and revolutionaries.

This 💯

Sadly this

OP posts:
Ihatetomatoes · 18/01/2026 21:39

HepzibahGreen · 18/01/2026 11:10

Of course Israel, the US, Great Britain and of course Russia, Iraq, Qatar and countless other foreign powers and secret services have an interest and some influence in what happens in Iran. It’s an incredibly important country. And those interests will not align with each other.
But I’m utterly astonished by the number of commentators glibly stating that this is in some way a manufactured revolution and therefore in some way not real.
How?? How do any of these foreign influencers manufacture young people going out into the street night after night KNOWING what their fate is likely to be but doing it anyway because they are so desperate.
It’s not just about how much hair can be covered FFS it’s about the corruption and terror that is baked into the Islamic Regime. It’s about the Iranian money that funds terror all over the Middle East.
Look, these young people the have more in common with teenagers in the UK or France or Finland than they do with their supreme “leaders”. They share a youth culture and the same hopes and ideals our young people do. They are not pawns of anyone, they just want a different future.
For some mad reason, if the establishment media and pro Islamist commentators over here can brush it off as the Iranian people bring puppets of evil Israel/ US they can somehow turn a blind eye to the absolute horrors being inflicted upon innocent unarmed civilians.
Where is the humanity? And stop calling them rioters. They are resistance fighters and revolutionaries.

Spot on.

OP posts:
Addybee · 18/01/2026 22:20

Iran’s national TV channels were hacked this evening and the whole country saw a speech from Pahlavi!

OpheliaIsntMad · 18/01/2026 22:32

Addybee · 18/01/2026 22:20

Iran’s national TV channels were hacked this evening and the whole country saw a speech from Pahlavi!

Edited

Wow! That must have caused consternation among some … 😆

Addybee · 18/01/2026 22:37

OpheliaIsntMad · 18/01/2026 22:32

Wow! That must have caused consternation among some … 😆

Yep! But Unfortunately, with the digital blackout right now, we have no idea how this is being received inside Iran or what people are thinking and feeling. But the fact that this has happened at all is huge news. We’re all just endlessly refreshing social media, hoping for any kind of update!, the regime can put an entire country into a digital lockdown and the outside world still manages to reach out to these people to let them know they are being heard.

The only issue I have is this, I really hope this isn’t another false promise of support. Last time, people heard Trump’s “support,” went out onto the streets hoping for protection or change, and instead they were led straight into massacres

OpheliaIsntMad · 18/01/2026 22:39

I am fully supportive of the protesters but the thing that does worry me is the lack of a leader who can unite all the protesters. I can understand why people might be suspicious of the motives and politics of Pahlavi but, for a movement to be successful in the mid to long term - there does need to be some sort of leadership offering a coherent vision of the future.
Is there a credible alternative to Pahlavi?

mids2019 · 19/01/2026 07:07

I think there is a sub section of the Muslim population (including here) that likes the idea of theocracy as th at is the only way you can ensure a true Islamic society including the upholding of God's law. So when an Islamic theocracy becomes a tyrannical repressive regime killing its own citizens many will suddenly become blind to its failings especially if they the luxury of not being in the country itself.

one of the ways the despicable regime is defending itself is by labelling the protestors non Islamic. Some will have the distorted world.view that the Iranian freedom seekers are some how bizarrly.aligned to Israel and the US in combating Islamic society.

I think this may explain why there is reticence from some to call out Iran but then when it comes to Gaza......

RedSongBird · 19/01/2026 08:48

SharonEllis · 18/01/2026 21:07

Today I heard from one of my exiled (gay) Iranian friends who has had his first contact with his mother in 11 days. The internet went down again after 1 minute. 1 minute. I told him that I had it on good authority (you) that things are not as bad as he thinks. His response was 'Fuck the Islamic Republic' and his response to you would get me at least deleted, if not banned.

I haven’t been back to Iran since I was a small child and that was pre 1979 so all the news I get is second hand from people who do go back. Saying people say it is not as bad as people think is not the same as saying life is wonderful there. It’s going to be even worse now. In every one of my posts I have said it is time for the clerics to go. I believe that is the consensus with most Iranians in Iran now, not all but most. If they are not willing to cede power peacefully, the only alternative is revolution. Having said that, if they are replaced by a puppet dictator, you are simply swapping one evil for another. That is exactly what Pahlavi will be and I believe most Iranians believe that too.

38thparallel · 19/01/2026 09:27

Having said that, if they are replaced by a puppet dictator, you are simply swapping one evil for another. That is exactly what Pahlavi will be and I believe most Iranians believe that too.

@RedSongBird how do you know that Pahlavi will be an evil dictator?
I have no idea if he will or won’t be should he get to power, but you seem very certain.

RedSongBird · 19/01/2026 09:42

38thparallel · 19/01/2026 09:27

Having said that, if they are replaced by a puppet dictator, you are simply swapping one evil for another. That is exactly what Pahlavi will be and I believe most Iranians believe that too.

@RedSongBird how do you know that Pahlavi will be an evil dictator?
I have no idea if he will or won’t be should he get to power, but you seem very certain.

I said believe, not know. His speeches already sound like appeasement, not the words of a strong patriotic leader addressing the concerns of his people.

OpheliaIsntMad · 19/01/2026 09:50

RedSongBird · 19/01/2026 08:48

I haven’t been back to Iran since I was a small child and that was pre 1979 so all the news I get is second hand from people who do go back. Saying people say it is not as bad as people think is not the same as saying life is wonderful there. It’s going to be even worse now. In every one of my posts I have said it is time for the clerics to go. I believe that is the consensus with most Iranians in Iran now, not all but most. If they are not willing to cede power peacefully, the only alternative is revolution. Having said that, if they are replaced by a puppet dictator, you are simply swapping one evil for another. That is exactly what Pahlavi will be and I believe most Iranians believe that too.

I think it was the suggestion that the protesters are puppets of foreign governments that I strongly object to.
I agree that the current regime must go and I also agree that without a leader to unite the protesters there are serious challenges ahead.

38thparallel · 19/01/2026 09:51

@RedSongBird you said if they are replaced by a puppet dictator which is ‘exactly what Pahlavi will be’.

That sounds as if you think he will certainly be a dictator.

RedSongBird · 19/01/2026 10:18

38thparallel · 19/01/2026 09:51

@RedSongBird you said if they are replaced by a puppet dictator which is ‘exactly what Pahlavi will be’.

That sounds as if you think he will certainly be a dictator.

Yes. I think, believe, he will be a dictator and puppet. It is a belief that I, and every Iranian I have spoken to, believe.

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