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Conflict in the Middle East
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BaMamma · 04/03/2025 19:42

'The Egyptian plan did acknowledge the challenge posed by armed factions in Gaza but said the issue could be resolved through a “credible political process” that restores Palestinian rights and offers a clear path forward.'

Is it possible to create such a credible political process? Will Hamas agree?

EasterIssland · 04/03/2025 22:08

A $53bn (£41.4 billion) reconstruction plan to rival President Donald Trump's idea for the US to "take over Gaza" and move out more than two million Palestinians has been approved by Arab leaders at an emergency summit in the Egyptian capital Cairo

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjd32xyjg4eo

Tents for displaced Palestinians are set up near destroyed and heavily damaged buildings in Gaza City (26 February 2025)

Gaza: Arab leaders approve $53bn alternative to Trump's reconstruction plan

Egypt puts forward a counterproposal to the president's vision for a US takeover of post-war Gaza.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjd32xyjg4eo

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mouthpipette · 05/03/2025 00:01

Sounds by far, the best proposal I've heard so far.

BaMamma · 05/03/2025 00:17

mouthpipette · 05/03/2025 00:01

Sounds by far, the best proposal I've heard so far.

'The Egyptian plan did acknowledge the challenge posed by armed factions in Gaza but said the issue could be resolved through a “credible political process” that restores Palestinian rights and offers a clear path forward.'

Is it possible to create such a credible political process?

Will Hamas agree?

statsfun · 05/03/2025 06:05

Is it possible to create such a credible political process?

Well, the US and UN clearly failed to do so, despite 75 years of trying. Concerted peace efforts by multiple US presidents, summits - international efforts and focus that other countries could only dream of - all failed.

Perhaps the Arab states will succeed.

It's entirely political - getting people whose only interest is to destroy Israel to agree to it's existence. Perhaps the Arab states are in a better position to do that. They understand it better than the US (having shared that intent themselves) and may be more trusted by the people who need to change their actions.

Israel will of course maintain the security control it needs in the meantime. They know all too well they can't rely on other countries words.

It might be a long path for the Gazans. No one will stump up the money until they are confident the rebuilt cities won't be destroyed again. Perhaps that will itself add internal pressure in Gaza to reach a solution. It must be the Gazans who get rid of Hamas, and make a choice to turn away from violence.

Martymcfly24 · 05/03/2025 07:21

Arab leaders endorse 'comprehensive' plan to rebuild Gaza under Palestinian Authority https://jrnl.ie/6639939

Hamas have welcomed the plan (but it is stated in the article it is unknown how they feel about relinquishing control.)
Hopefully they know for the greater good they need to go
Israel will need to change its mindset also of control and punishment of the area and government members)/ parties there also will have to change policies on "the river to the sea" .

BelleHathor · 05/03/2025 07:46

All the Palestinian factions signed an agreement to co-operate brokered by China and Russia last year. They agreed that the most important thing is the Palestinian cause.

Hamas are happy to relinquish control and have issued statements as such (it's often forgotten that they never wanted to administer Gaza and only ran in 2006 after boycotting previous elections). Once they are gone it gets rid of Netanyahu's excuses.

The issue may be with the Palestinian authority led by Abbas and his party Fatah, who are viewed as a collaborators with Israel/USA. Their actions failing to protect the West Bank Palestinians.

"Bush thought democracy would fill a vacuum, so he urged the Palestinian Authority to hold parliamentary elections.

One problem, though: Radical parties—notably Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which had boycotted the 2005 presidential election—decided to compete in the 2006 parliamentary contests.

Six weeks before these elections, Dennis Ross was on one of his frequent trips to the Middle East. As the Middle East envoy for Presidents Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush, Ross had more experience negotiating with Israelis and Palestinians than any American. He was no longer in the U.S. government, but he knew all the relevant players.

Ross was leery about holding elections. He thought that if there were elections, militias such as Hamas should be banned from participating; they should have to choose between joining the system and waging violence against it—they shouldn’t be allowed to have it both ways.

Members of Fatah, fearful that Hamas might win, approached Ross and asked if he could quietly urge the Israelis to block the election. An odd alignment was taking shape. “What’s wrong with this picture?” Ross asked himself. Fatah and Israel were against holding the elections; Hamas and President Bush were in favor.

Ross communicated all this to Robert Zoellick, a former colleague from Bush Sr.’s days who was now deputy secretary of state. Like Ross, Zoellick worried the election could be disastrous. He urged his boss, Bush Jr.’s secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, to urge Israelis to do some things to improve Fatah’s prospects—for instance, to ease up on border crossings in the Palestinian territories and let Abbas take credit for the gesture."

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/10/was-hamas-elected-to-govern-gaza-george-w-bush-2006-palestinian-election.html

How George W. Bush Helped Hamas Come to Power

In Bush’s naïveté about the magic of elections, he ignored a crucial point about democracy.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/10/was-hamas-elected-to-govern-gaza-george-w-bush-2006-palestinian-election.html

EasternStandard · 05/03/2025 07:47

Same question on Hamas as pp

Martymcfly24 · 05/03/2025 07:52

Really interesting @BelleHathor . So Really Netanyahu's worst nightmare then is that Hamas does relinquish government control because there would be no excuse for a plan like this to work (probably why they have propped them up previously)

BelleHathor · 05/03/2025 08:09

Absolutely @Martymcfly24 Hamas relinquishing control would neuter Netanyahu's excuses to control Gaza. As such within hours the Israeli government rejected Egypts proposals. Remember Hamas were only ever propped up to sow discord between the Palestinian factions and it worked with continuous infighting.

After the IDFs actions in Palestine, Lebanon and Syria, the other countries in the region realise that the issue must be solved by offering a credible alternative.

statsfun · 05/03/2025 08:25

Hamas relinquishing control would neuter Netanyahu's excuses to control Gaza

Just a slight correction: Hamas would need to relinquish control and the Palestinians would need to stop the violence. All of it. For long enough for Israel to know that it's not just a ploy.

If the Arab states can achieve that, then there might indeed be peace.

EasternStandard · 05/03/2025 08:28

On Hamas if this plan goes ahead are they no longer a threat?

How is that ensured?

EasterIssland · 05/03/2025 08:40

statsfun · 05/03/2025 08:25

Hamas relinquishing control would neuter Netanyahu's excuses to control Gaza

Just a slight correction: Hamas would need to relinquish control and the Palestinians would need to stop the violence. All of it. For long enough for Israel to know that it's not just a ploy.

If the Arab states can achieve that, then there might indeed be peace.

are settler violence part of your plan? They’ve not stopped and there won’t be peace as settlers are treated like terrorists and put in prison as well.

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statsfun · 05/03/2025 08:41

EasternStandard · 05/03/2025 08:28

On Hamas if this plan goes ahead are they no longer a threat?

How is that ensured?

I think in the same way as it always would have been. And in much the same way as peace was achieved with Egypt, including demilitarised zones Sinai zones

Realistically, the whole of Gaza and the West Bank would need to be demilitarised. And Israel won't just take that on trust.

After a long period of no aggression and building trust (30 years for Egypt) the requirements for demilitarisation can be relaxed.

statsfun · 05/03/2025 08:44

EasterIssland · 05/03/2025 08:40

are settler violence part of your plan? They’ve not stopped and there won’t be peace as settlers are treated like terrorists and put in prison as well.

Israel forcibly removed all settlers from Gaza in 2005.

I expect that similar could be negotiated for the West Bank - with land swaps as necessary - as part of an agreement where Palestinians fully stopped violence.

Jerusalem is trickier.

BelleHathor · 05/03/2025 08:45

Palestinians would need to stop the violence.

As will the Israeli government have to stop the violence and the occupation.

I think the days of the Israeli government dictating what they require for security are quickly coming to an end. Netanyahu's actions have destroyed their International reputation, which is having a knock on effect economically in terms of foreign investment in Israel.

Egypt putting this on the table openly shows which side is agreement incapable. Israel is of course free to reject anything.

statsfun · 05/03/2025 08:49

I think the days of the Israeli government dictating what they require for security are quickly coming to an end

I don't think so. Security is the the sine qua non of any peace agreement. That will never change.

RubyTuesday48 · 05/03/2025 08:49

Jerusalem will never be given up by Israel. It is the Jews most sacred place in the world. Don't @me about Muslims, it is not their no 1 place of worship. That is Kaaba in Mecca in Saudi Arabia
Christians haven't laid claim to Jerusalem since the Crusades.

EasterIssland · 05/03/2025 08:50

statsfun · 05/03/2025 08:44

Israel forcibly removed all settlers from Gaza in 2005.

I expect that similar could be negotiated for the West Bank - with land swaps as necessary - as part of an agreement where Palestinians fully stopped violence.

Jerusalem is trickier.

More land swaps?

as part of an agreement where Palestinians fully stopped violence.

small correction : where Palestinians and Israelis fully stop violence (& those that continue are treated the same way)

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EasterIssland · 05/03/2025 08:53

RubyTuesday48 · 05/03/2025 08:49

Jerusalem will never be given up by Israel. It is the Jews most sacred place in the world. Don't @me about Muslims, it is not their no 1 place of worship. That is Kaaba in Mecca in Saudi Arabia
Christians haven't laid claim to Jerusalem since the Crusades.

its Muslims holy land and not only that but the capital of Palestine.

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RubyTuesday48 · 05/03/2025 08:56

EasterIssland · 05/03/2025 08:53

its Muslims holy land and not only that but the capital of Palestine.

Whatever you or I may think Israel will never give up Jerusalem to Palestinians.

statsfun · 05/03/2025 09:02

Yes, it is important to the Muslims as well... because it was already the Jewish Holy land, and Islam (like Christianity before it) stems from Judaism.

The Al Aqsa Mosque is literally built on top of the Jewish Temple of King Soloman.

Luckily it's that way round. Pretty sure that if it was the other way, everyone would be demanding that the Jewish Temple be dismantled.

Let's see what the Arab states propose.

Whatsinanamehey · 05/03/2025 09:09

RubyTuesday48 · 05/03/2025 08:49

Jerusalem will never be given up by Israel. It is the Jews most sacred place in the world. Don't @me about Muslims, it is not their no 1 place of worship. That is Kaaba in Mecca in Saudi Arabia
Christians haven't laid claim to Jerusalem since the Crusades.

You must be having a laugh if you think the Palestinians and the Muslims will give up Al Quds.

RubyTuesday48 · 05/03/2025 09:11

Whatsinanamehey · 05/03/2025 09:09

You must be having a laugh if you think the Palestinians and the Muslims will give up Al Quds.

They don't have Jerusalem.

EasterIssland · 05/03/2025 09:13

RubyTuesday48 · 05/03/2025 08:56

Whatever you or I may think Israel will never give up Jerusalem to Palestinians.

Whatever you or I think Palestinians will never give up jerusalem to Israelis

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