Five couples I know, who all had children naturally, were all told they had a "less than 1% chance of ever having a baby"

[Kendodd]

One of those couples now have three children, two have two, and two have just one. All of them did wait years and go though loads of heartbreak thinking they would never have children. By this reckoning though, I should know 495 couples without children, I know two.

Are doctors just too pessimistic or is my experience really unusual?

I hav no idea, but I do know that my bf's husband has a sperm count of 10 with low motility. They had 2dcs. Miracles happen all the time!

I think some couples use donor egg or sperm (or both!) and keep it strictly private (which is understandable) even though they've shared their fertility journey among friends & family up until then.

But yes miracles do happen, there's always that 1% chance it will happen, which is possible when you've a chance every single month.

I don't understand your figures. Very few people are given a 1% chance. And yes, sometimes doctors are unduly pessamistic.

Lots of people are told this entirely erroneously. Unless you have known scarred Fallopian tubes, have had cancer treatment in the past, known not to ovulate on your own, known deformities of your uterus etc etc then you may be fertile.

Doctors frequently get things wrong. Not just in fertility, but in all medicine.

My dh and I were referred for ivf due to both of us having severe fertility issues (dh has very low sperm count and I have pituitary tumour which secretes tons of prolactin, inhibiting ovulation).

We found out I was pregnant naturally on the day our ivf appointment dropped through the front door. We couldn't believe it.

We had been trying 18 months.

Sorry what's the 495?

I'm assuming OP's figures come from the fact that for each couple who were given less than 1%chance there should therefore be 99 couples who make up the other 99%, and 99 couples x 4 = 495
The flaw however is that the 1% chance isn't, 'if you get pregnant, 99 other couples won't as theoretically (whilst unlikely) 100 couples each with a 1% chance could all get lucky and get pregnant

I know a couple of them did have failed IVF, the others didn't (as far as I know). They all had long long waits though, not just a couple of years. They were all told this -1% figure though. A couple told me the doctors told them that, and the others said they were told that when we were talking about it and I mentioned that somebody else I know was told they'd never have children, well, -1% chance, and they said that that's exactly what they were told, different place, different doctors. Maybe that's just the standard chance they give people after they've been trying for x number of years.

I think it is more common for people to exaggerate what they have been told, especially if they are trying to express how miraculous something is. Maybe they were told 1% a month, or maybe they changed their lifestyles in some way. If they tried IVF, even if it fails, there seems often to be a boost in fertility afterwards. I would be more amazed to know more than one person who would be told this and didn't try in some way to boost their odds (I'd have been saving for IVF, filling myself with drugs and supplements, exercising like crazy and ordering DH gimmicky sperm enhancing boxer shorts within an hour of leaving the doctors).

I think perhaps the doctors are right to say things like "at this weight you have very little chance" or maybe exaggerate for an older couple to speed through their referral, when it will help. I can't imagine a situation where a GP has enough info to make such an estimate and surely the fertility clinic would give them options. Saying that, I was told the opposite, lots of reassurance beforehand followed by surprised "well done" type comments when I did get pregnant, so that maybe biases what I think.

My DP and I had been trying for 3 years and, after seeing specialists, were told that we'd had no chance naturally and to go straight to IVF.

I now have a 7 month old and am 13 weeks pregnant - both pregnancies after DTD just twice!

I've never had a doctor give me a % for getting pregnant.

I was told it was highly unlikely I'd get pregnant naturally. The following week I found out I was pregnant naturally.

I lost that baby. The doctor still put me forward for ivf as he thought my chances of getting pregnant naturally again were so low. I fell pregnant the month I was due to start ivf.

We'd been trying for two years when we first got pregnant. I have several known problems that should affect my fertility.

I do believe in miracles, but I also think that doctors can only work on the basis of the facts they have available. And the human body is so complex and amazing that any % given will only ever be an estimate and a guide.

KenDodd, have you ever been through infertility?

I wasn't given a percentage but my GP had said it was unlikely and I should think about IVF. When my husband and I made some dramatic changes to our diets I got pregnant really quickly. I don't think doctors are necessarily pessimistic, they're just in a mindset where it has to be a medical solution. They barely have any training in nutrition and other modalities although this is starting to change.