So scared for my children.

[Hiker50]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2024/may/08/hopeless-and-broken-why-the-worlds-top-climate-scientists-are-in-despair
I feel terrified for them. I just hope we can start to make some changes in the next few years.
I don’t talk to them about it but I just do end my time thinking about what I can do to try and help them in the coming years.

I don’t know the timeframe on this or where numbers will be but it’s pretty obvious we’re not great at talking about it

I don’t mean you op, just generally

I actually think it’s pretty important to think about where we want to be living , whether we are able to grow our own food, whether we will be able to access water easily in the event of shortages, famine, droughts. Heavily populated areas with no land to grow food or fresh water to access are going to be under huge stress. If ever there was a reason to move to the country and get your own generator, grow fruit and veg, this is it. Also be mindful of flood risk .

There must be more writing on all this but this was interesting

‘According to Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, these are the best placed areas to deal with the worst effects of climate change:

1. New Zealand
2. Iceland
3. United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
4. Tasmania
5. Republic of Ireland

No coincidence these are all islands which have well developed infrastructure and are not low lying like the Maldives, for example.’

@Lifesabeachbaby Did you read my original post? Do I strike you as naive? Have you considered your ‘helpful’ comments might be the thing that sends someone over the edge? Or is that part of the thrill?
@EasternStandard I agree. We are awful at talking about it.

Have you been living under a rock for the last 20 years?

This

We're doomed if everyone votes for The Green Party

Yes it does, the difference here and now is that the heating is not part of the natural cycle, it is man made and it will wipe out humanity. Sure the planet will then cool down again but but then humans won’t be on it. Is that a good outcome?

I'm more of an Indie reader (I also have access to a lot academic literature).

The Guardian is okish but definitely seeks out the scariest attention grabbing headlines - but then you've got the right wing press on the other side.

Once you get beyond "stop burning fossil fuels" and some of the actions I tried to suggest on this thread it gets extremely nuanced and extremely complicated very quickly.

The TATA steel works in Wales is a really good example. Moving from coke burning blast furnaces to much cleaner electric arc furnaces, especially as in time the energy can come from the Celtic Sea floating offshore wind array Fantastic! But at what cost to the loss of jobs in the short to mid term and the impact that will have on the local community. Some might be able to retrain, but this could take several years - and do the local colleges offer courses for appropriate for ex-steel workers?

I'm really optimistic but I'm fortunate to see the progress being made now five to ten years before it makes it as far as the Mail or the Guardian.

@Lifesabeachbaby If ever there was a reason to move to the country and get your own generator

You really, really don't get this do you? Please read my posts and links. A few hours a month with a couple of like minded people applying for grants to insulate your village hall or community centre would be infinitely more beneficial for yourself, your family, your community and the planet, than running away with a diesel generator for company.

This is a good graphic

https://skepticalscience.com/ is good

Nah, it won’t wipe out humanity. It will wipe out alot of other species that cannot adapt & migrate as easily. Humans are living in 50C down south right now and higher latitudes and altitudes are not going to get anywhere near that temperature even in the worst case scenarios. We migrated to the equator and during the ice ages, and if we have a hot epoch, we will migrate towards the poles and up mountains. We can also control the climate of very large spaces for growing crops and raising live stock. This would be true even with 200yr old technology.

Nah, that’s not going to happen.
Very little land is in the worst case projected to be uninhabitable scenario. It is 90% ocean.
There is tons of uninhabited land that we can migrate to- both north and south. Canada & Russia are the two biggest countries in the world land mass wise and have tons of permafrost land that once thawed can be comfortably settled. South Africa and Southern end of South America will be habitable as will southern Australia and New Zealand. Then all the mountain ranges and their valleys currently under glaciers be inhabitable - so there is vertical space as well- everywhere over 5,000ft above sea level will be ok…that’s Alps, Himalayas, Carpathians, Pyrenees, Rockies, Sierra Nevadas etc etc.

Where are 9bn people going to migrate to? Or do 7bn of them have to die?

Oh my word. 9 billion are not going to need to migrate. It will be 3 billion worst case over 70yrs, and I’ve already said where they can go. Less than 1% of the people live on land that is currently too cold. This cold land is 20% of all land not including Greenland. As lands 3 billion live on gradually get too hot, the land that is too cold will become warm enough to live on. The 3 bn migrating will be coming from the 19% of land that is worst case projected to become too hot to live on over the next 70yrs (if global temperature increases 4.5C)

This would be an average of 43million migrants per year- I know it won’t be so evenly spread out- but currently 272million people migrate internationally every year on the planet. So this is not a big number compared to the status quo.

I don’t think the worst case scenario for the next 70yrs will be easy, I am just saying humanity isn’t going to be wiped out and we won’t have 9 billion needing to migrate suddenly or die, nor will it cause the end of civilisation.

Billions of refugees flooding north into Europe and USA. BILLIONS.

Most will be going to Canada, Russia, Southern S America, Southern Australia.
A smaller number to New Zealand, and Scandinavia/Iceland/UK

Europe and US will have its own refugees heading north if the worst case happens.

You probably need to factor in politics and impact on borders

Well, that adds complexity in terms of the geopolitical knock on effects of an increase in migration that has a pattern of millions moving towards the poles.

Whether countries decide to stop migrants and use robots with machine guns patrolling huge border walls to keep them out or decide to support and settle them, integrate them to then increase their political power on the world stage as a new superpower ie Canada taking in U.S. refugees and taking over the US place in world politics now…it doesn’t really matter.

There are many thousands of dystopian or great possible outcomes but not one of them would result in wiping out humanity or the collapse of civilisation.

The world if it was 4 degrees warmer. Yellow and brown areas are uninhabitable. Thats all of Africa, pretty much all of the USA and South America, and the vast majority of China and Australia.

It’s an interesting discussion

@Bromelain does that map come with accompanying text? Eg an article that you could link, thanks

https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/what-the-world-will-look-like-4degc-warmer/

The map was published in 2009.
This 2017 Time article narrates alot of the same, but from a perspective of making the best of things
https://time.com/6209432/climate-change-where-we-will-live/

No, they're not.

It's not China's fault that "The West" are demanding ever increasing quantities of products, often cheap tat, nor that "The West" were happy to export our waste to the Far East for "processing" (i.e. dumping). China, India, and other Eastern Countries are just satisfying our demand for "abdicating" our pollution etc from West to East.

@IbisDancer any chance of some peer reviewed papers or at the very least respected journal articles.

Media reporting of climate change scenarios, it's causes, impacts and mitigation routes, are dire at best, generally misleading and often utter bullshit.