Population overload.

[chaosmaker]

Just wondering if anyone else thinks that we are at a stage where we should incentivise/reward people who choose not to breed. We're on a finitely resourced planet and I've just read a thread where people were talking about some celebrity having a 4th kid via a surrogate.
Should we talk about how the more kids you have, the more competition you are making for them in adult life?

AI is already being used to take over previously human staffed jobs. It's been creeping into jobs like journalism for ages.
There have been famines in various countries for ever and yet we are at a point in evolution where we have more power over our fertility than ever.
Interested in what other people think about this.

Sure, but none of that makes your claims (to which I was responding) about infertility or sperm counts true. It's not just about you - there will be other women reading this thread who are concerned about their fertility. That is stressful enough, without scaring them with incorrect stats.

There is no evidence that a couple who are -say - 35 in 2023 are more likely to experience infertility than a couple of the same age in 1983. More people are having infertility treatment but that is both because of rising maternal age and the increasing availability of IVF etc. For every couple who does experience infertility, it's a devastating experience. But I'm not going to apologise for correcting alarmist claims about infertility risk on a thread about population overload. If you find the subject too painful - which I entirely understand - maybe this isn't the right thread for you?

Wow. Have a nice evening.

No thanks (70 next year).

I think we are naturally reducing our population and should have support systems in place to make that easier. Not sure what, but for example to address issues of an imbalanced and older population with people not able to care for older people.

I'm not sure why a population decline is seen as such a terrible thing. But then I'm not massively knowledgeable on it. It's seems the transition is the hard part when we have a much bigger older generation. But then actually a smaller population just supports a much smaller population?

I do think it's a bit much wehn some people talk about environmental impact and have more than 2 kids though.

That isn't the issue, globally. The issue is still birth rates. Even if the number of babies each woman has falls, the population will still increase until the birth rate falls below replacement level (2.1 per woman). So far, this has only happened in a few countries.

The global average birth rate is currently 2.3 per woman, which doesn't sound a lot more than 2.1 but there are 4 billion women. The difference between them averaging 2.1 children and averaging 2.3 children is 800,000,000 people.

The problem isn’t over population it’s over consumption. We encourage manufacturers to make and develop more products for us which is having a huge toll on the planet in terms of resources and climate change.

we blame the wrong people and the wrong things. We have a consumption overload fuelled by neoliberal capitalism telling us we need these material things and we willingly oblige by spending the money we have on things we don’t need which continues the problematic cycle.

That is a big part of the problem, but not the only problem. Over-population causes environmental and social issues in countries that are low income and low consumption, as well as in high income countries.

200 years ago, there were about 1 billion people on the planet, now there are 8 billion. Even if they are only fulfilling basic needs like food, firewood and building materials, the impact on the environment is huge.

No, you’re completely wrong OP. The problem is falling populations, not the opposite.

I agree with many posts about population decline in the West. I also don't think society is set up for having children. In the UK, education is only free to a point, going to university affects your future saving power, housing is expensive, everyday bills are expensive, childcare is limited and expensive...I have only one child because I underestimated how much she would cost. If Western governments did more to help couples have families (& have the time & money to enjoy them) then we'd be able to replace the older members of society.

Of course it's different in countries where contraception and abortion is banned, or where the culture or religion of the land encourages procreation. But how do we implement a policy whereby there is a balance? It's impossible.

Both are problems. There is imminent demographic collapse in some countries, notably China. However, the global population is not expected to peak till 2080, and is predicted to grow by another 1.5 billion between then and now.

Yes, but long before the population peak, we are going to have many countries with old age dependency ratios the likes we have never seen before. What's that going to look like? How will we manage that without social and political instability?

I agree, which is why I said that both are problems.

Actually, what will probably happen is that high income countries will 'buy' more working-age adults, by allowing large scale immigration. But this will leave the immigrants' own countries denuded of working-age adults, as well as causing social problems in their new location, as high income countries struggle to assimilate large numbers of people from different cultures in a short space of time.

People should have as many children as they wish. This is such a dumb thread.

They really shouldn't. It's very selfish and pretty stupid.

Well no it isn't actually, because increasingly they are choosing to have fewer or no children. So letting them have the number children they want seems to be working well to decrease the birth rate.

Gosh OP, you're absolutely right.
We should absolutely be paying people not to reproduce.
We don't need people now we have AI.

Brave new world and all that jazz.

Here, have a sticker you clever so and so!

Bye

Yes water shortages, poor quality dense housing, these issues are experienced in places like Egypt, the government is trying to push family planning to deal with the problem because it is a problem. If your population outpaces the states ability to provide resources (education, healthcare, jobs, food, clean water) it is a very real problem.

Bangladesh is a really good example of a successful non coercive population control plan to help reduce birth rates. The government decided that a bigger population would be impossible to resource given the geographical size and features of bangladesh vs it’s population.

Food security is a problem for many countries, the price of wheat or rice going up can have a devastating effect when countries produce nowhere near enough to feed their populations. Population is a much more pressing problem for developing countries because of the very real threat of extensive malnutrition or death.

This all adds up to things like loss of natural habitats as more space is cleared for people or food, pollution of water, over fishing, impaired water tables from over pumping etc.

No one who blames overconsumption is even thinking about the elephant in the room known as "fossil fuel use". Fossil fuels have allowed us to use far more energy and support far more people than would otherwise be possible. And they will run out. The only solution to that is fewer people because the number of people currently here cannot use less energy than renewables can provide without going back to Stone Age living standards, including Stone Age healthcare.

What a horrible toxic Post!

What I wrote is true.

When you say fossil fuels will run out, is there any ideas around when that could be? I’m assuming it can’t be definite but have experts calculated when it could be?

I try and live in a way where I don’t consume a lot and burden the planet but obviously we all do and I’m very worried about the future of the planet but I have no idea what else I can do to help. I know people think it’s mainly large companies that can make the changes to help but obviously I want to do my part but I’m still worried it’s not enough.

It's hard to reliably predict when oil depletion and the related concept of a "peak oil" point where supply outstrips demand will haooen. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predicting_the_timing_of_peak_oil gives an overview of why.

Thank you!

Things like limiting air travel, using public transport and just not buying ‘stuff’. Clothing for example is a huge environmental drain.

I’ve always struggled with the concept of rubbish. I go through one 30L bag every 7-10 days (would be less but my council don’t recycle lots of things and there’s no food bin service either). So if I change it once a week, say, and do this for 65 years that’s 101 400 L in my adult lifetime which works out as 3380 bags of rubbish Multiply that by roughly the population of the UK which gives ~223,080,000,000 bags of rubbish and it blows my mind in a not very good way. And that’s just the kitchen bin! How do they find room for it all?? How much is incinerated? How can we reduce our generation of rubbish?