My DD, nearly 3 has been going to our childminder since I went back to work and she was 11 months. I had originaly expected her to go to a nursery but many of them didn't open early enough or finish late enough for DH and I to manage it around our work. As we both have relatively long commutes we didn't want to go out of our way for childcare too and extend the day even further. The nursery that was local and did meet our criteria timewise just didn't feel right when we looked around, it was in the middle of an industrial estate and although the facilities were good inside, it didn't feel right leaving my precious baby there! We looked at a few childminders and the one we chose just felt right, I liked the homely environment.
DD is now treated like an extended member of her family, DD loves it there and she's taken to soft play, toddler groups and they do fun activities indoors - crafts etc. She's built up a relationship with our childminders son who's now 10 and he's lovely with her, and she also has a 3 month old baby too so DD is getting practice to be a big sister! She's only there two full days a week as MIL looks after her the other day I work so we're lucky she has a good balance. As others have said, there is the risk that she'll have a sick day and we'll have to make other arrangements but it's only happened maybe once or twice so we can manage it.
I feel like she's learned a lot by being around slightly older children and as a baby she wouldn't have gained much from other babies her own age.
It's a very personal decision and a difficult one to make before you've even met your baby. I liked the home environment of a childminder, her being taken to the shops/bank whatever as I would do with her if I'd been at home instead of work. However I know friends who chose nurseries for opposite reasons - they wanted their child to have a different experience from a day to day home life and wanted loads of facilites on site and space for them to run about with lots of children without having to be taken about in the car. DD isn't the most active child and has always been good at concentrating on things, but maybe if your child is a climbing the walls type then they'd be better in a nursery to keep them stimulated!
The other thing I liked about a childminder was the flexibility - she could have a nap when she wanted for example, whereas at a nursery they have to be more structured and routine led to be fair to all the kids. If you're very particular about your child's routine, eating habits etc then a childminder may be a better option. But again, very difficult to judge until baby is here!