My first post - a shortlist!

[JessieEssex]

Hi all

This is my first ever post on Mumsnet - I'm 18 weeks at the moment and my DH and I are getting very animated about names! We aren't going to find out the sex so have to think of both. My DH is more traditional in his tastes than me, so you'll probably be able to guess who likes which! Any opinions gratefully (I think!) received:

Boys:
Jasper
Felix (my current favourite!)
Toby
Francis
Henry
Sam
Lawrence

Girls:
Iris
Ivy
Violet
Constance (Connie)
Carys
Lydia
Elsa
Jocelyn
Verity
Meredith (my current favourite!)

But you don't want to calculate 50 out of 80 - you want 50 children overall, i.e. 50% of all children are boys, i.e. 40 out of the 80 - 50%!
I think.

Yes, you want 50% overall, but she's calculating the amount of women who are wrong. If 80 out of 100 think they're having a boy and only 30 of them do then 50 out of 80 are wrong, thus 60%.

But surely some of the people who guess that they're having girls end up having boys? The amount of women who guess wrong must statistically be the same as the amount who guess right - so half of each (40 women who think they're having boys and 10 women who think they're having girls) so 50%. (I'm not sure why I'm acting the expert since GCSE maths was 15 years ago...!)