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we have all been 'had' re global warming

257 replies

howmuchdidyousay · 18/11/2009 19:25

To think its the biggest conspiracy theory of all time ?

OP posts:
policywonk · 21/11/2009 19:46

OK cat, but your position (if I'm understanding it correctly) leads to the wrong-headed, albeit popular, view that the science on climate change is 'grey', or debatable, or hotly contested in the relevant scientific circles. It just isn't, any more than the link between smoking and lung cancer is hotly debated by pulmonary clinicians.

MmeProf · 21/11/2009 19:48

Reading this thread, I really despair for GCSE Science teachers. They have such a huge mountain to climb.

ABetaDad · 21/11/2009 19:55

MmeProf - we didnt have Climate Change to worry about when we did GCSE. We used to learn useful stuff like how to wire a plug.

The headmaster who taught Physics used to like to electrocute the entire class for fun though - which did tend to focus the mind on our slightly more imminent deaths.

MillyR · 21/11/2009 20:03

MmeProf, I did get a bit depressed by this thread, but I actually think it is not just about people's attitude to science. People behave in exactly the same way over a wide range of non-scientific subjects as well.

Many people are interested in learning about science - you only have to look at the infant feeding threads or even the chicken keeping threads to see that people are interested in knowing more about science.

Fivesetsofschoolfees · 21/11/2009 20:14

Unfortunately, teenagers don't often have the same attitude to science. It is often seen as a boring subject. If a school has a lot of non-specialists/cover teachers doing science, they often show their lack of interest or aptitude for the subject. It is a big problem for the country.

throckenholt · 21/11/2009 20:15

have any of you read the actual emails that have been leaked ? I have skimmed a few.

They are pretty much normal academic communication with occasional flashes of human frustration at being forced to argue their case with people who have an agenda that is not scientific knowledge. There is a feeling that it is wasting their time when they could be persuing the research they are supposed to be doing.

The debate generated by the skeptics is definitely politically rather than scientifically driven, as far as I can see.

It is interesting that the ice core data is not mentioned much.

ChocolateMoose · 21/11/2009 20:21

Policywonk, I vaguely remembered that statistic about 97.4 per cent of climate scientists agreeing that global warming is caused by humans, but had no idea where it came from, so I'm glad you posted it - you don't have a link, do you?

It's a surprisingly powerful way of undermining something to say "we should listen to both sides of the debate", when among scientists there is no debate (it works well for creationists in the US).

So as a result the general public thinks it's not proven, and there is no urgency about stopping climate change.

I think the general logic among sceptics is "I don't want this to be true, therefore it can't be true". There's a reason why Al Gore's film was called "The Inconvenient Truth".

ChocolateMoose · 21/11/2009 20:43

Oh, actually it wasn't, it was "An Inconvenient Truth". Details, details...

policywonk · 21/11/2009 20:47

Chocolate, I linked to the press release in the post - there's probably a way to the study from there. (Am bathing small boy or would check myself.)

acebaby · 21/11/2009 21:35

have not had a chance to read the whole thread. However, I am a climate scientist, and I couldn't not respond.

Firstly, someone asked for a review of the science. I'd recommend looking at the synthesis report on www.ipcc.ch/.

Secondly, I have come across no evidence of any conspiracy theory about global warming. Most climate model source code and observational evidence is open source within the academic community, and I don't see how such a conspiracy could be perpetuated. In my opinion, the idea of a global conspiracy involving thousands of independent scientists ranks along with faked moon landings

Thirdly, there is a lot of work to do on quantifying and understanding regional climate change - particularly of rainfall (i.e. whether a particular region will get wetter or drier). This is freely admitted by climate scientists, and drives considerable research effort.

Fourthly, of course there is natural climate change. This is in response to natural changes in orbital forcing, solar forcing, ocean circulation and carbon dioxide levels. Using geological data and climate models to explore these responses provides insight into how our climate may respond to carbon dioxide emissions. The palaeoclimate data strengthens the argument for anthropogenic climate change.

Fifthly, scientists have in the past failed, and still are failing in their duty to communicate their results to the public. They only have themselves to blame for the public's doubt in their integrity and results. This is why I have decided to make this post - although I will doubtless be flamed.

policywonk · 21/11/2009 21:48

'scientists have in the past failed, and still are failing in their duty to communicate their results to the public.' - that's interesting. I was perceiving it more as a failure on DECC's part (much as I'm a fan of Ed M's).

There's a need for public education, no doubt about that.

acebaby · 21/11/2009 22:16

PW - I think that there is a need for public education, but also that scientists need to be engage the public at all stages of their work. If they don't do this, they open the door to conspiracy theories and to questioning of their integrity.

There is a need for prominent journals to become open source (and funded completely through page charges) and for them to publish layman's summaries of papers. I think that in certain instances articles should be published with referees' comments - something that would allow open and transparent questioning of research. This would be a mechanism for some of the climate skeptic arguments to be openly challenged in the literature. At the moment, I suspect that many of these papers are rejected - preventing open debate (something which is bad for any sort of scientific progress)

onebatmother · 21/11/2009 22:27

It's both,isn't it? Obv DECC shoulders the official responsibility - but given what's at stake I'm surprised there hasn't been a concerted effort by Science to overcome what I imagine is a deeply ingrained fear of 'broad brushstrokes'. They need to find an effective way of translating themselves.

sarah293 · 22/11/2009 09:04

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sarah293 · 22/11/2009 09:10

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catinthehat2 · 22/11/2009 09:35

Oh my! (Link to summary of CRU hacked emails)

tatt · 22/11/2009 09:44

Considered response later when I don't have todo breakfast - but you're right it is a conspiracy theory. And it has about as much sense as most conspiracy theories.

If we all do the light bulbs and similar rearranging the deckchairs stuff maybe we can buy enough time to find a solution to the problem.

policywonk · 22/11/2009 11:13

Response to the hack from RealClimate; worth reading the comments below for climate scientists' responses to individual charges.

Extract from RealClimate's overview:

'More interesting is what is not contained in the emails. There is no evidence of any worldwide conspiracy, no mention of George Soros nefariously funding climate research, no grand plan to ?get rid of the MWP?, no admission that global warming is a hoax, no evidence of the falsifying of data, and no ?marching orders? from our socialist/communist/vegetarian overlords. The truly paranoid will put this down to the hackers also being in on the plot though.

Instead, there is a peek into how scientists actually interact and the conflicts show that the community is a far cry from the monolith that is sometimes imagined...

It's obvious that the noise-generating components of the blogosphere will generate a lot of noise about this. but it's important to remember that science doesn't work because people are polite at all times... Science works because different groups go about trying to find the best approximations of the truth, and are generally very competitive about that. That the same scientists can still all agree on the wording of an IPCC chapter for instance is thus even more remarkable.

No doubt, instances of cherry-picked and poorly-worded 'gotcha' phrases will be pulled out of context. One example is worth mentioning quickly. Phil Jones in discussing the presentation of temperature reconstructions stated that 'I?ve just completed Mike?s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith?s to hide the decline.' The paper in question is the Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998) Nature paper on the original multiproxy temperature reconstruction, and the 'trick' is just to plot the instrumental records along with reconstruction so that the context of the recent warming is clear. Scientists often use the term 'trick' to refer to a 'a good way to deal with a problem', rather than something that is 'secret', and so there is nothing problematic in this at all. As for the 'decline', it is well known that Keith Briffa's maximum latewood tree ring density proxy diverges from the temperature records after 1960 (this is more commonly known as the 'divergence problem'?see e.g. the recent discussion in this paper) and has been discussed in the literature since Briffa et al in Nature in 1998 (Nature, 391, 678-682). Those authors have always recommend not using the post-1960 part of their reconstruction, and so while 'hiding' is probably a poor choice of words (since it is hidden in plain sight), not using the data in the plot is completely appropriate, as is further research to understand why this happens.

The timing of this particular episode is probably not coincidental. But if cherry-picked out-of-context phrases from stolen personal emails is the only response to the weight of the scientific evidence for the human influence on climate change, then there probably isn?t much to it.'

throckenholt · 22/11/2009 11:14

Oh my! (Link to summary of CRU hacked emails)

hardly an objective summary though - bits have been snipped and used out of context - completely misrepresenting the tone of the email conversations. At least that is my personal impressions having skimmed through quite a few of them yesterday.

And to be honest (whilst I have a background in this subject area) you have to be in the field to understand the detail of what they are discussing - I certainly didn't get it all - and I am certain that the vast majority of the bloggers and other commenters don't either.

katiestar · 22/11/2009 11:17

Unfortunate analogy Riven.Eating 10 cakes won't kill you !

flockwallpaper · 22/11/2009 11:21

acebaby, and others, thanks for posting the links, very helpful. acebaby I agree with your comments about journals becoming open source, and having open debate. There will always be acusations of people having vested interests. Scientists like yourselves are presumably dependent on research grants, or industry funding for their work, but I would be extremely surprised if there were so many scientists with so little integrity as to perpetuate a myth in order to secure their funding.

sarah293 · 22/11/2009 11:22

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sarah293 · 22/11/2009 11:23

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policywonk · 22/11/2009 11:24

Yes, I agree about absolute transparency in academic data - let's hope the scientific community learns that lesson from this episode.

LoveBeingAMummy · 22/11/2009 11:28

But why? What is the result 'they' want?

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