For those at the back still not paying attention:
https://x.com/capitolhunters/status/2099310894828126563
Anyone thinking, what's the big deal about the 4% cut in global oil production next week: that's the scale of the 1973 OPEC crisis and 1979 Iran war oil crisis. Each followed by a major recession. Prices & supply are global. Global oil stocks are already gone. It's a calamity. 1/
People seem bizarrely blase about this. Did we forget bad things can happen to us? 4% production loss is a global recession-producing event. Spiking prices will benefit Russia. Trump will use it to demand Ukraine surrender. What am I missing here? 2/
"This is one of the most severe energy supply situations in modern history." None of us will be untouched by this. 3/
Oil & gas folks are claiming Saudi Arabia is working 24-7 and no-expense-spared and can maybe get oil flowing again in a week. But the Saudis seem to have no defense against the drone attacks that took the pipeline out. This all seems very, very dark. 4/
As I have been saying on several threads now, this isn't a drill. There is due cause to be concerned and events mean it is sensible to follow the government advice.
I have been watching all weekend and think our chances of fuel rationing and potentially rolling blackouts this winter are probably fairly likely.
The impact on farming - inability to get fertiliser - also means food prices are going to go up, perhaps significantly. In some places in the world famine is likely. That's not the UK, but it is going to get difficult.
Each day the news gets worse. I will be watching the markets today - with the AI news combined with the oil news over the weekend, I'm expecting some significant tanking to go on. That's pensions being flushed down the drain. Interest rates are unlikely to stay out - they are going to go up. Possibly significantly.
Start taking this seriously. It's going to be a tough winter. This has been crystallising over the weekend into a situation which is tangible rather than merely theoretical. It looks likely to be hard to avoid this. It's fucking terrifying tbh. I have seen comments ranging from significant recession bigger than 2008 to 1929 style crash triggering a depression. That seems to be where we are headed.
Burnham has a perfect storm on his hands. He will just be trying to keep the lights on and make sure everyone gets basic food at this rate. Beyond that no promises. A lot of people are going to be in a lot of financial difficulty if this shapes up the way it's looking.
I really really hope I'm wrong.