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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Bond markets - is the shit hitting the fan?

151 replies

LawdAMercy · 02/09/2026 14:22

People who know about these things - AIBU in crapping myself about the future of the UK and the possibility of global financial Armageddon?

OP posts:
Thread gallery
7
KatiePricesKnickers · Yesterday 06:29

@Bolon ”He needs to convince them he’ll reign in spending and boost growth. He’s doing a very bad job of that indeed.”

All he seemed to say was we should be optimistic and hope for a better future.

Are we supposed to be praying? Because that’s what it sounds like.

SulkingInTheCatio · Yesterday 06:30

Oh this is worrying me, I was just about to put 13k in stocks and shares. Maybe I shouldn’t?

I don’t pretend to understand economics, etc. but someone mentioned the AI bubble and there was something on the news yesterday about the amount of money which US investors are borrowing to invest in AI is unprecedented. Like rivalling money which actual countries borrow. I got the impression this was investment/financial organisations not individuals.

And it surprised me as I had no idea such companies borrowed money, or certainly not at large levels. I thought they used money which individuals invested with them.

so if this is true and there is an AI bubble which bursts or some other reason for a big downturn in the markets there’s going to be trouble.

DeafLeppard · Yesterday 06:31

The bond markets are the only thing keeping governments in line wrt spending. If governments lack the balls to make sound but unpopular financial decisions,the bond markets will force them to.

France should be worried. UK gilts have risen - we’re smaller than the Eurozone

SulkingInTheCatio · Yesterday 06:33

Wherearemymarbles · 02/09/2026 22:15

The problem is the the vast majority of MP’s are actually fucking stupid yet all without fail think they are brilliant
Until they get to grips with the triple lock and welfare spending in general we are fucked.

Totally agree with this. Benefit spending is out of control and we’re spiralling downhill fast. Triple lock is bonkers but nobody wants to make the decision to do away with it because of the resulting headlines. Some politician of integrity just needs to make the decisions which are best for the country and fuck the headlines. Sadly it’s not going to happen.

RoyalImpatience · Yesterday 06:40

DeafLeppard · Yesterday 06:31

The bond markets are the only thing keeping governments in line wrt spending. If governments lack the balls to make sound but unpopular financial decisions,the bond markets will force them to.

France should be worried. UK gilts have risen - we’re smaller than the Eurozone

What's France got to do with this ?

BaskingSharking · Yesterday 06:40

I wonder whether the fact we are more prone to change Party leaders and PMs quickly, and call general elections more often, and make everything Party political, makes it harder for leaders of Parties to make unpopular but necessary decisions like abolishing the triple lock. Imagine if the main Parties got together and agreed to all agree certain unpopular steps were necessary and agreed not to make it a political point scoring exercise but instead a collective stand to address a problem.

RoyalImpatience · Yesterday 06:45

Neurodiversitydoctor · Yesterday 05:57

It was in a stocks and shares ISA now sitting in a bog standard savings account.

I can't understand the logic of pulling it out unless you need it now ?

AutumnCrowBats · Yesterday 06:47

BingoJingo · Yesterday 06:08

Why didn't you transfer it to a cash ISA instead of a regular savings account? Cash ISAs aren't tied to the bonds market are they?

Yes, I don’t get this either. Why not transfer from a stocks & shares ISA to a cash ISA held by NS&I?

NS&I is as safe as it gets. When that goes, we’re all eating dandelions.

TheNoonBell · Yesterday 07:02

The government are now in a credit card junkie debt spiral, borrowing to pay the interest. That plus ignoring the massive spending cuts needed is going to sink the UK sooner rather than later.

We need a government that are going to make massive and very unpopular cuts to the budget. Only 26 million people in this country work full time out of 69 million inhabitants.

DeeferDogg · Yesterday 07:20

Where exactly should welfare cuts be made?

Neurodiversitydoctor · Yesterday 07:30

Neurodiversitydoctor · Yesterday 05:57

It was in a stocks and shares ISA now sitting in a bog standard savings account.

Actually going to buy a property not in the UK

BaskingSharking · Yesterday 07:34

DeeferDogg · Yesterday 07:20

Where exactly should welfare cuts be made?

Moving to earnings-linked uprating instead of the triple lock could apparently save about nine billion a year if done retrospectively but that would be very controversial.

Neurodiversitydoctor · Yesterday 07:34

DeeferDogg · Yesterday 07:20

Where exactly should welfare cuts be made?

I know this isn't to me but the triple lock has to go. Also PIP is raging out of control - needs a rethink there are families where every adult member is claiming PIP and carers allowance - mental, all the while 1,000s of middle class parents are artifically holding their income below 100K.

RoyalImpatience · Yesterday 07:42

Sure cut welfare but wouldn't we all feel better if they cut down on abuse first ? Apparntly billions is owed in unpaid student loans from EU guests ?
Millions is wasted through fake uni /college /schools going to Albania and Romania.
Millions more scans why not crack down here on our leaky ship across all areas ? Remember when child benefit was flooding out to poland to kids who had never set foot in the UK !

Inremeber NHS staff on the TV saying with outrage and disgust that no they wouldn't ask people for proof of living in the UK / being a national !

Myself and my DH were interviewed for what seemed like an eternity getting all our details for a french hospital before they would even look at our sick DD and no interpreters for us either !! That was when we were a part of the EU !

And we had a bill sent to us we were told if we didn't pay it would stay on our file and be flagged op or something so not paying wasn't an easy choice !

Is it forenisc accounting ? Along with other experts to make us an efficient business ?

DeeferDogg · Yesterday 07:45

I know this isn't to me

It wasn't directed at anyone in particular. I'm genuinely interested. I agreed with the winter fuel allowance being means tested. The Tory press (and my well-heeled inlaws) and left wing media were up in arms about it.

AutumnCrowBats · Yesterday 07:51

Neurodiversitydoctor · Yesterday 07:34

I know this isn't to me but the triple lock has to go. Also PIP is raging out of control - needs a rethink there are families where every adult member is claiming PIP and carers allowance - mental, all the while 1,000s of middle class parents are artifically holding their income below 100K.

The thing is, the Tory plans are thus:

The Conservatives say their savings will include £4bn through housing benefit reforms, and £3.1bn from reimposing the two-child benefit cap. They will end the £1bn annual funding increase for the British Business Bank and save £1bn by ending VAT exemptions for motability vehicles.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/09/02/badenoch-i-will-cut-welfare-to-hit-3pc-target-on-defence/

I don’t know how these ‘housing benefit reforms’ are going to affect pensioners on pension credit, who are major recipients. Maybe that’s the trade-off with Cameron and Osbourne’s triple lock? Save the Tory pensioners, hammer the Labour types?

Neurodiversitydoctor · Yesterday 07:53

JohnofWessex · Yesterday 07:52

The Government does nogt need the bond markets and can simply create the money it needs.

My response to 'The Markets' would be to tell them to go away and shut up or be declared a threat to democracy.

See

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2026/09/03/how-to-beat-the-bond-markets/#gsc.tab=0

Oh bless " I will not be held hostage to the bond markets" is absolutely fine if you don't need to borrow any money.....

Bolon · Yesterday 07:57

DeeferDogg · Yesterday 07:20

Where exactly should welfare cuts be made?

Everywhere. I don’t think anyone should be exempt.

KatiePricesKnickers · Yesterday 07:57

JohnofWessex · Yesterday 07:52

The Government does nogt need the bond markets and can simply create the money it needs.

My response to 'The Markets' would be to tell them to go away and shut up or be declared a threat to democracy.

See

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2026/09/03/how-to-beat-the-bond-markets/#gsc.tab=0

I asked AI.

Governments cannot simply print as much money as they need because money itself has no intrinsic value—it is only a token representing the actual goods, services, and productivity of an economy.
When a government prints new cash without a corresponding increase in actual economic output (like goods, food, houses, or tech), it triggers severe economic failure modes.

  1. The Core Problem: Too Much Money Chasing Too Few Goods
Imagine an island economy with 10 apples and $10 total cash. Each apple costs $1. If the government prints $90 more and hands it out, there is now $100 total cash, but still only 10 apples. Apple sellers will naturally raise their prices to match the surge in demand. Soon, each apple costs $10. The total wealth of the island hasn't increased—the money just buys less. This is inflation.
  1. The Worst-Case Scenario: Hyperinflation
When governments ignore basic supply and demand and print massive amounts of cash to cover debt or budget shortfalls, money loses value exponentially. People rush to spend cash immediately before prices rise further, causing the currency to collapse entirely. Weimar Germany (1923): Prices doubled every few days. Workers were paid multiple times a day in wheelbarrows full of cash and spent it immediately before it became worthless. Zimbabwe (2008): The central bank printed $100 trillion bills. At its peak, a single loaf of bread cost tens of billions of Zimbabwean dollars. Venezuela (2018–2019): Severe hyperinflation meant cash became so worthless that street artisans wove real banknotes into handbags to sell to tourists as souvenirs.
  1. Destruction of Savings and Debt Volatility
Excessive money printing disproportionately impacts ordinary citizens: Savings evaporate: If you have $10,000 saved and the government doubles the money supply, the purchasing power of your savings drops significantly over time. Destruction of credit: Lenders stop issuing loans because the money they get paid back in the future will buy far less than what they lent out. Why Can Governments Print Money Sometimes? Governments and central banks (like the US Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank) do create new money under controlled conditions, often through digital monetary policies like Quantitative Easing (QE):
  1. To match economic growth: As a country grows and produces more goods and services, expanding the money supply proportionally keeps prices stable.
  2. To fight deflation: During economic slowdowns, central banks may inject liquidity into the banking system to lower interest rates and encourage spending and investment.
Printing money works only when balanced with real economic capacity. Beyond that limit, money printing converts real wealth into useless paper.
Bolon · Yesterday 07:58

JohnofWessex · Yesterday 07:52

The Government does nogt need the bond markets and can simply create the money it needs.

My response to 'The Markets' would be to tell them to go away and shut up or be declared a threat to democracy.

See

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2026/09/03/how-to-beat-the-bond-markets/#gsc.tab=0

oh my goodness, an MMT nutter. If this is true why aren’t we doing it? Because it’s not. Richard Murphy isn’t an economist- he’s an idiot.

JohnofWessex · Yesterday 07:59

Neurodiversitydoctor · Yesterday 07:53

Oh bless " I will not be held hostage to the bond markets" is absolutely fine if you don't need to borrow any money.....

The Government does not borrow money it creates it.

It is then cancelled via taxation

Bonds are simply a savings facility Governments offer and which Companies use to help meet there commitments. How is your pension funded - using Bonds

Singapore runs a budget surplus but still issues Government bonds for that reason.

What you need to do first is ask the question 'where does money come from?'

JoanOgden · Yesterday 07:59

Ah yes because printing stacks of money has worked so well whenever it's been tried.

I agree that Burnham should get the public finances under control, scrap the triple lock and make growth easier. But it really is a global issue -

www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/why-bond-yields-are-rising-and-why-everyone-should-care

KatiePricesKnickers · Yesterday 07:59

And then I asked it why bond markets are important to government debt.

Bond markets are the ultimate reality check for government spending. Whenever a government spends more money than it collects in taxes, it must borrow the difference. It does this primarily by issuing and selling government bonds (like US Treasuries or UK Gilts) to investors.
Because of this direct relationship, bond markets exert massive control over public debt and national economic health.

  1. They Dictate the Price of Borrowing
A bond is an agreement: an investor gives the government cash today, and the government promises to pay it back over time with interest (yield). High Trust, Low Cost: If investors believe a government is stable and responsible, demand for its bonds is high, so yield stays low. The government borrows money cheaply. Low Trust, High Cost: If investors fear inflation, political instability, or excessive spending, demand drops. The government must offer higher yields (interest) to persuade investors to lend them money.
  1. They Act as "Bond Vigilantes"
Bond markets act as a real-time policy monitor. If a government passes a budget or law that investors deem fiscally dangerous or unviable, bond market participants will rapidly sell off that country’s bonds. When bonds are sold off in mass:
  1. Bond prices crash.
  2. Yields (interest rates) spike.
  3. Government borrowing costs soar overnight.
This phenomenon—known as a bond market rebellion—can force a government to abandon proposed budgets or policy promises instantly to prevent a national debt crisis.
  1. They Benchmark Interest Rates Across the Whole Economy
Government bonds are considered the foundational "risk-free" standard of a national financial system. Because of this, the interest rate set by the government bond market dictates borrowing costs for everyone else: Mortgages track long-term government bond yields. Corporate debt must offer higher yields than government bonds to compensate for default risk. Consumer loans move in tandem with these broader yield trends. If a government loses the trust of the bond market, it doesn't just hurt public finances—it makes mortgages, business investment, and credit cards more expensive across the entire country.
JohnofWessex · Yesterday 08:01

KatiePricesKnickers · Yesterday 07:59

And then I asked it why bond markets are important to government debt.

Bond markets are the ultimate reality check for government spending. Whenever a government spends more money than it collects in taxes, it must borrow the difference. It does this primarily by issuing and selling government bonds (like US Treasuries or UK Gilts) to investors.
Because of this direct relationship, bond markets exert massive control over public debt and national economic health.

  1. They Dictate the Price of Borrowing
A bond is an agreement: an investor gives the government cash today, and the government promises to pay it back over time with interest (yield). High Trust, Low Cost: If investors believe a government is stable and responsible, demand for its bonds is high, so yield stays low. The government borrows money cheaply. Low Trust, High Cost: If investors fear inflation, political instability, or excessive spending, demand drops. The government must offer higher yields (interest) to persuade investors to lend them money.
  1. They Act as "Bond Vigilantes"
Bond markets act as a real-time policy monitor. If a government passes a budget or law that investors deem fiscally dangerous or unviable, bond market participants will rapidly sell off that country’s bonds. When bonds are sold off in mass:
  1. Bond prices crash.
  2. Yields (interest rates) spike.
  3. Government borrowing costs soar overnight.
This phenomenon—known as a bond market rebellion—can force a government to abandon proposed budgets or policy promises instantly to prevent a national debt crisis.
  1. They Benchmark Interest Rates Across the Whole Economy
Government bonds are considered the foundational "risk-free" standard of a national financial system. Because of this, the interest rate set by the government bond market dictates borrowing costs for everyone else: Mortgages track long-term government bond yields. Corporate debt must offer higher yields than government bonds to compensate for default risk. Consumer loans move in tandem with these broader yield trends. If a government loses the trust of the bond market, it doesn't just hurt public finances—it makes mortgages, business investment, and credit cards more expensive across the entire country.

Why have a democracy then?

Not much point if the bond markets dictate what Governments can or cant do

Please can someone answer this point

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