To think climate change will force a complete rethinking about immigration?

[OneMoreBanana]

I'm not sure how many people, on the ground or in government policy making, have connected the dots here.

The climate crisis disproportionately affects the global south, where average temperatures are hotter, infrastructure less developed and available economic resources for mitigation lower. This is already making life in some areas, that have previously supported human communities for thousands of years, near impossible. There is talk of whole cities having to be abandoned.

The same crisis is primarily created by the industrialised countries of the global north, whose per capita emissions far outweigh those of less industrialised countries.

So if/when the large scale exodus of millions of people from no-longer-habitable environments becomes inevitable, two questions arise: Is it MORAL to disallow those people asylum in countries like the UK? And is it PRACTICABLE to do so - when the "small boats" issue becomes an increasingly large number of increasingly large boats, do we literally just view it as warfare and gun them down, or what?

These questions apply regardless of how you feel about immigration currently. If you are a hardline Brexiteer or otherwise strongly for controlling and reducing immigration, can you see a point in the future where it will no longer be tenable, either morally or practically, to maintain that position? And if you are liberal on immigration, can you see a point where having to be even more liberal will mean letting go altogether of many aspects of the UK's (and other countries') "identity"?

Interested in a range of perspectives - I think there's a whole bunch of sacred cows that may end up slaughtered by this. However if you believe that climate change either isn't happening or isn't due to human activity, please just jog on past and grow a brain cell or two. Life is too short.

definitely not. This will quickly turn to another Nazy type, because once you find excuse to be ruthless in order to save your own then what is the next action ???

they move here, because they like the scenery, the houses, the order of law

The countries driving immigration have adopted all the First World medical advances that extended life, massively reduced infant mortality, etc.

But then they forgot the other side of the demographic equation, which is to reduce birth rates. And they still seem to exist in an incredibly tribal, primitive way in which having as many children - preferably male - as possible still seems the way to run a family.

What is the main export of places like Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangaladesh, or the Philippines?

Because it certainly seems like it is people. And mainly men.

There's a lot of long-standing resentment in Wales because several villages were flooded in order to build reserviors for the benefit of Birmingham and Liverpool.

We need a reform/restore government to sort out immigration. So long as they leave the state pension alone, they will get in.

I think it's about 11 corporations that own everything in the entire world. They're able to control and dominate everything, so there's no real competition.

Before too long, the tide of climate-related migration (from Southern Europe as well as the global south) will render borders meaningless. The battle for resources (including water) is already underway.

It should, but it won’t. At least, not until it is far too late.

😂😂😂

Not a single one of their proposals so far is do-able.

Eh? Migrants won’t be leaving their home countries because it’s a bit sweaty. They will leave because climate change will render those countries uninhabitable.

I’m not sure this is what will happen.

Climate-related migration is already a thing - here's some research discussing movement from North Africa to Europe:
https://www.iemed.org/publication/climate-mobility-a-look-into-the-future-of-migration-movements-across-the-mediterranean-region/

And here's a paper discussing climate-related movement in Italy. The move northwards will become inevitable - perhaps not in my lifetime, but within the next 100 years.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/399607856_Climate_migration_in_Europe_Evidence_from_drought_exposure_and_internal_migration_in_Italy

@OneMoreBanana our economic system is based on extracting resources and up to about five years ago we were actually increasing the wealth of the poorest. Progress had been made towards the Millennium development goals but that’s reversed now, due to conflicts and also crises due to our reliance on fossil fuels. Scientists and charities have been predicting this for decades. Actually even oil companies predicted it in the 80s but because a few people could get unbelievably rich it continued - and now the gap is wider and we had our first trillionaire this year. It’s inextricably linked.

climate change poses huge threats to us here and is literally already causing mass migration and has been for years in the global south. The effects have reversed much of the progress made through aid. And we’ve been cutting aid due to our cost increases due to our reliance on fossil fuels and allowing those companies to have record profits whilst the world literally burns.

here’s the gov report - got hardly any media coverage about the eco crisis
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nature-security-assessment-on-global-biodiversity-loss-ecosystem-collapse-and-national-security/national-security-assessment-on-global-ecosystems-accessible-version

I urge you to go see the National Emergency Briefing if you can.
https://www.nebriefing.org

and yes the politicians know. Not a word from Andy Burnham about climate change despite it being the hottest summer on record and likely to be a really stormy winter - but he’s thinking of banning disposable bbqs whilst he’s moving a few deckchairs about.

We need real action. I hope we show it at the G7 which we host this year but I’m not confident.

If you watch how powerful countries behave around oil and then apply that to water or food, we are in for very rocky times ahead. Nothing in human history suggests scarcity of liveable land or resources leads to nice moral behaviour.

I even see people on mn saying things about using thier hosepipe near their full northern resevoir and greedy southerners didnt contribute or Scottish water for Scotland etc

People will try but voters will continue to vote. Politicians will feel increasing pressure to react to stay in.

You say borders will no longer exist in your pp. How many millions do you envisage arriving in the EU and the UK? Particularly the UK?

A lot of biased generalisations here. Do you have any idea why there may be more male immigrants? How safe do you think it might be for a woman getting from Eritrea to Europe? If they risk going how many do you think make it? If you were Sudanese and your 14 year old was going to be forcibly conscripted into a militia or if it was the only way for him to earn money as you can’t work, your husband was killed, but if you pool money you could send your son to another country to earn money - you would, he’ll likely be dead within a year getting conscripted and that’s after he’s had to kill his own people. That is what is actually going on. It’s not a case of have less children. Contraception isn’t available. Women are raped. There’s no jobs. The highest migration countries have little healthcare. There’s war, drought, famine. We have extracted the resources in most of these countries and left them with nothing. Millions of people are desperate and the vast majority are moving within their own countries = more conflict or going to neighbouring countries. Men are more able to access unskilled manual labour work.

I have no prediction of numbers, but 'millions' is probably the right word.

I suspect economic problems, conscription in some countries, crime ( running away), grinding poverty, opportunism ( Freedom of movement in Europe) and wars are more of an issue. Climate change may well be added.

Won’t it just lead to war?

I don’t think people in the UK will say ok to millions.

As I've tried to indicate (borders becoming irrelevant) at some point, they won't have any choice. Not in my lifetime, but within the next 100 years.

Island nations will find it easier to have a choice. The sea is an easier barrier.

That much is true 👍

Is it really though against millions?