AI over the next few years

[Nutmuncher]

I’ve recently shifted my reading content from war, doom scrolling and political madness towards being positive for the next few years, mainly scientific breakthroughs and technological advances from AI. There’s so much to be excited about (aside from the inescapable dose of fear and nerves of war doom climate doom and politics) and I think it’s something MN should be talking about more.

AI is coming whether we like it or not, it’s going to bring with it a seismic shift for the world that’s going to be incredible but also bring with it a tricky societal transition that will impact us all in some way, jobs will change, industry will evolve, the human touch will become increasingly important. How easily we transition to that new world is another story, how will those who don’t use devices or aren’t technology native actually navigate a more connected world? The economic implications if entire industries go or certain careers are no longer needed could be catastrophic if not managed properly and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. But I want to focus on the positives so let’s gloss over the bumpy transition period for now 😅

The advances and changes we’re going to see in the coming years will make today look like the 80’s in a relatively short space of time. The pace of progress in companies such as Anthropic, SpaceX, OpenAI right now is breathtaking. People think picture editing or making dodgy FB posters whenever you mention AI but it’s so much more than that, we just think it’s bad for the environment and that it’s taking jobs away when actually alongside technology and robotics it’s going to revolutionise how we live dramatically.

Excited about-

Medical advances and breakthroughs, we’ve seen the impact GLP-1s brought, there’s so much more just like those coming in the next few years. Drugs are being discovered super fast, research is taking months instead of years and analysis of clinical trials is more thorough and accurate. As new technologies come available the medicines keep improving. Gene therapy and having targeted treatments based on our own genetics is an exciting area of research that’s currently happening, the understanding of our own bodies will be a major step forward. I have always been keen in longevity and wellness, areas which I’m watching like a hawk.

Education. AI isn’t going to be a hologram teacher (not yet anyway) instead it could help teachers tailor lessons to each child, minimise many of the laborious administrative tasks, help to identify learning difficulties earlier and much more. I think classrooms are going to look very different in the next 5 years.

Industry. Rather than replacing entire industries, AI will automate repetitive work, improve decision-making and help people work more efficiently. Some sectors will change more than others and productivity will increase along with efficiency in the businesses that adopt and adapt. I think industry and workplaces in general will soon be judged on how quickly they use new technology, those that do will appear relevant and capable and those that don’t will resemble an office if it were still using a typewriter today.

Anyone else excited?

Yeah, right. 🤣🤣🤣

🤣🤣🤣😆🫣 seriously.

Why do those with agendas or completely opposite views always muddy the waters trying to discredit a thread by claiming OP is a journo?

If you wanted people to believe that you’re not a bot or a journo or a rage-bate generator why did you name change?

Why if you’re happy to be seen to post consistently across MN have you not put your money where your mouth is and posted under a name where people can go “oh, she’s a regular poster.” ?

You post a load of AI generated text about how excited you are about AI, on a website where people recognise that many of their jobs will be lost to AI in the near future, and you’re surprised that people see you for what you are? Either a bot, a journo, or a goadie newby out to cause upset

Did you search correclty? I haven’t name changed for months?

Also pop my posts into an AI checker and see what it says.

And what will that answer be?

Are we just glossing over the horrific environmental impacts, the impact on our own brains and critical thinking skills and the fact that generative AI in particular uses the stolen work of writers and artists as a matter of course? Not to mention that the AI boom and also AI agent responses to your questions and interactions are being controlled and driven by tech bros who have profit, rather than your interests, at heart.

All of these, but the environment aspect in particular, make me sick with worry about the future society and indeed planet that we're forcing our kids into. So no. Not excited.

AI can get fucked. At least the large language models can. I am seriously worried about the long term and societal effect of outsourcing all our thinking to algorithms.

The initial effect seems to be a homogenising of culture, if the identikit AI posters for events that keep popping up on Facebook are anything to go by.

Thing with UBI is that it’s likely to be household income and in the region of 12’000 -15’000 per household not individual. That isn’t officially in the public domain and is being modelled. And that’s also assuming that someone is left willing to pay UBI. We can’t get multi millionaires and billionaires to pay their fair share of tax and yet somehow we expect UBI to get paid?

Also 40-50% of all dementia cases can be prevented due to a combination of other factors. One of them is around building your cognitive reserve. The more we depend on AI to write for us or perform tasks the more we lack the ability to promote neuroplasticity which in the end will be disastrous for us all. If according to Sam Altman we will end up ‘purchasing’ intelligence from these AI companies, what will we be left with?

Not to mention all the impact on the environment. AI isn’t being developed for the benefit of humanity, if it was I would be behind it. It’s there to make largely tech companies even more powerful. And I agree with the Pope we need to start regulating AI.

Something that's rarely touched on, outside of the Economist and some tech journals, is that Big Tech is effectively stateless. Their reach is global.

Most of the parent companies reside in the US and China but are more or less ungovernable by those administrations. China keeps a tight hold over its industries but doesn't constrain their activities (and they can always move). The US government's taken ownership of the most advanced AI - but how long can they keep it to themselves? And what are they doing with it?

More to the point for the rest of us, these companies increasingly control our business, our public services, our banking, everything. They're into every corner of our lives yet pay us no taxes and answer to no-one. Their revenues are bigger than most countries' GDPs. Individual countries can't legislate to control them, limit them or get money from them.

It's easy to say we've sleepwalked into this, but we haven't. It's a can that's been kicked down too many roads for too long, partly because people whose jobs are about politics and running a country don't have the mental bandwidth to contemplate emergent tech. Mainly, though, because it is actually a global problem and you'll never get a whole bunch of governments to agree on anything.

We're heading very quickly towards a world that is run by a powerful oligarchy, neither elected nor fitted for government. What they do when faced with complex tasks is ... get AI to do it. They're all hiring philosophers at the moment, to help instil ethics into their products and offer guidance on machine/human interfaces. They're doing this because they realise their power is only going to increase.

Interesting times ahead.

Maybe I’m feeling sensitive: but WHY oh WHY do pro AI people ALWAYS bring up teachers as the most vulnerable profession? Most students ( people) actually want to learn (anything- flower arranging, politics) FROM A HUMAN.
My students would probably kick a robot, god bless ‘em.

Agreed. I’m also not sure how AI replicates the pastoral elements of the role or the elements that require human instinct. There is clear value in an inspirational human teacher, and I don’t think it’s a threat to the profession. Not that I’m a teacher.

Many of the most pro-AI people genuinely do not see the value in what humans bring. To think of an extreme example, someone like Elon Musk (or indeed any of the tech guys at the top of this stuff) does not find human interaction enriching and cannot possibly comprehend others do. It’s beyond them why, for example, someone would spend years writing a novel when AI could do the same thing in seconds - and why someone might prefer reading the human version to the AI one, even if the quality were the same.

It’s an extreme efficiency mindset.To most of us it’s clear that what children need to learn best is smaller classes, more funding for resources, less stressed teachers, more one on one time with teachers and teaching asssistants. It’s actually not a problem that’s solvable with tech. But some people genuinely just see the time savings and the scalability of AI and think - well that’s that all sorted then.

I hope you’re right, but I sadly think whether there’s a threat to the profession (and to all of education as we know it) will depend entirely on cost and efficiency, rather than what’s actually best for children.

I mean right now we have a government aiming to shut as many special schools as possible and bring even quite seriously delayed children into mainstream classrooms in no way prepared for them… and this is supposedly a left-wing government…

I’m glad you feel good about where you are in your work. You might well have made yourself safer for longer than most by making yourself the go-to AI person for the higher-ups.

But honestly, nothing you’ve described sounds remotely out of scope for eventual AI replacement. I don’t think anyone in an office-based role can rest easy, sadly, no matter how much you embrace the change.

You say you will always need a human in the loop - well, yes, for now at least. But possibly not forever. And even if it is forever, how sure can you be that you will be that human? Many others are preparing in similar ways to you. Employers simply will not need all of us.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw several countries try various combinations of solutions first such as UBI, very low taxation, making housing free, free healthcare etc for the unemployed. The US will be the first place I would expect to make the most significant first moves simply because of their concentration of wealth from tech.

As I’ve mentioned before I think we’re going to see new industries and types of working emerge as people start to use AI in ways we haven’t yet imagined, much like how apps and websites flourished over the last 20 years.

Let’s not forget millions of jobs will still remain, the significant workforce changes only really start shifting once the robotics start to scale and that depends on the ability and reliability of the hardware in work place settings.

Where did I say I thought it was about spelling and grammar? Skills of influencing and so on are key human skills - skills that we will, I’m afraid, lose if we outsource them to AI.

I think it's important to remember that the "AI is coming, it's inevitable, get on board" narrative really serves the billion dollar companies who profit from its use.

Not saying the genie isn't out of the bottle, it is, but it would be worth people applying some critical thinking around their use of it and what is necessary vs what isn't.

Ahhhhhhhhh…..you think countries that have NEVER advocated for free health care and actively see housing as a market not a human right are just going to ‘try’ things?
I admire your optimism.

Yes and with likely a much lower tax take than ever before, a much more aged population than ever before…

I don’t believe teaching is a vulnerable profession at all, if anything it will be more vital than ever especially if young people start questioning whether university is the best pathway for them. I think AI will simplify the workloads of teachers, help them focus lesson plans for each pupil, make creating great resources easier and so much more.

Surely it’s in everyone’s best interests to optimise the education experience for every child, if a teacher is using AI as a tool it shifts their workload from administrative tasks and planning to actually being more present and interacting directly with the class.

I think Covid showed the absolute value of children being taught face to face and around their peers - the impact on speech, language and communication needs and social and emotional needs from lockdown especially for the youngest cohort is still being felt 6 years on.

I think facing the real possibility of social breakdown, mass civil unrest and immense public pushback would force the hand of any government to ‘try’ some new previously unthinkable ideas.

I am sure many teachers already use AI to create resources. No doubt it does save them plenty of time. But our education system is still a total shitshow isn’t it?

AI resources are just not where the key change needs to come. Until there is better funding, higher levels of staffing and better conditions for staff, things will continue to be a shitshow.

Maybe leveraging AI is something that could significantly help solve some of the bigger problems. Massive education reform is needed, the curriculum and overall education experience is going to look incredibly outdated soon and we will lose any semblance of competitiveness on the global stage unless we change how children are prepared for the world they’re going to grow up in.