To think Andy Burnham will not make Labour any more electable.

[4thweekofjuly]

I think there is little appetite for a new PM and a new Labour leader will make 0 difference to their chances of winning. I also think the best the public can hope for, from any government, is a slow, well managed decline. I don't think there is much of a future in the UK and the public need to accept the social contract is no more. .

Trouble is that so many MPs are now career politicians. They’ve come out of Cambridge or wherever and gone to work as political consultants/ advisers/ researchers; they don’t have experience of ‘normal’ jobs and have lost sight of the fact that they’re elected to serve a constituency. The level of self-interest on display today is staggering.

@MsGreyingfrom what I've read he doesn't have to stand down as Mayor unless he gets elected. Annoying to know that if he does lose he can just go back to his normal job

I didn't know this

I’d vote Sadiq - he’s wonderful.

I agree with you, OP, there just isn't the appetite for changing PMs. I don't know what some Labour MPs are thinking, they are just making the party look as flaky as the last government.

@OneTealShaker actually, that’s not quite right. Andy Burnham didn’t bring in PFI contracts. Norman Lamont actually launched the PFI scheme in the NHS, under John Major. It was then expanded further by Burnham in Gordon Brown’s government.

Andy Burnham was a fantastic constituency MP and is an excellent Mayor. Josh Simons is also a brilliant MP whose constituents are sad to see him go. The local elections were mainly a protest against Starmer rather than a vote for Farage. Best case scenario is that Andy and Josh switch jobs. Labour have screwed the north for too long and Andy and Josh have decided to take action, thank god.

In the Makerfield local council elections last week, the aggregate vote share was Reform 50% & Labour 30%.

It is going to be difficult for Burnham to overturn that sort of margin.

Yeah by the time Burnham became Health secretary most of the NHS PFI hospitals had been built or agreed ...nice try though.

I would prefer Starmer in office at the current moment.

Electorally, though, it could be the right move. Few people seem to want centre-left or centre-right politics at the moment, and are moving towards the extremes.

Starmer tried pandering to those drawn towards Reform, with tighter immigration controls and removing indefinite right to remain for asylum seekers, and certain of his rhetoric ("island of strangers").

Not only did that fail in preventing a loss of voted to the right but it, along with attempts to cut benefits and alike, saw a sizeable loss of voters to the Greens on the left.

Absent a charismatic would-be replacement from the centre, it has to be someone more to the left.

Burnham ticks that box and also has the highest approval rating of any current Labour politician (via YouGov).

He is considered by many to be more on the left to Starmer now I don’t think that is his true political stance I am not really sure what it is and I don’t think that will matter his ambition is to be PM so it shall be where the votes are

Labour won’t win an election if they move to the left and that is what will upset some in the party that he won’t (if he becomes leader) to keep the left happy

That’s good to hear. I wonder if he learned lessons about listening to the people from his Mid Staffs debacle.

He ignored whistleblowers then.

I do have doubts about his understanding and care about women’s rights given his ignorant public comments.

Why not?

Andy Burnham is popular there, as is the standing MP. The reform vote was as much about protesting about Starmer and the Labour led Wigan Council as anything else. Wigan Council are very unpopular at the moment, especially in the light of the Astley Warehouse debacle. I wouldn’t say that the reform local elections will automatically result in the same result in a by election

That could work well, but it doesn’t look good. It’ll look to the electorate like two mates are just swapping jobs with each other because that’s what suits them. And that’s basically what it is.

It’ll be really bad optics for Labour, especially since they campaigned on a platform of integrity and being absolutely squeaky clean.

If this happens, I think Reform will just walk the next election.

Totally disagree. They are both taking huge personal risks. It’s easier to dismiss it in the way you do, but I think they’re both being incredibly brave in order to put the country first.

I’m not dismissing it at all!

I agree they will probably be good in their swapped roles - AB, especially.

I thought AB was a fantastic mayor and a good MP, but am much more familiar with his work as mayor than as an MP. I don’t know what JS has been like as an MP. Unfortunately the main thing I know of his time as a politician was the Labour Together incident that he resigned over.

However, I’m just suggesting what this might look like to the electorate. I don’t think it’ll look good. It reminds of how Rachel Reeves’ lies on her CV gave her the ‘Rachel from Accounts’ nickname which she can’t shake off. I think this sort of thing could lead to something similar. I think it’s risky.

Edit: the right wing media will really go to town on this. Both AB and JS went to Cambridge, so they’ll probably go with headlines like: ‘two posh boys swapping jobs whilst the country goes to the dogs’ etc etc ad infinitum. I’d bet £100 this is how it’ll play out.

Josh Simons has been an incredible MP. His constituents will tell you that.

@InveterateWineDrinkerwords right out of my mouth

What has he done as an MP? Are you one of his constituents? I’m curious as I have no idea what he’s done as an MP and can’t find much online. There’s not even anything online about where he grew up - everything starts from when he went to university onwards. I don’t even know if he had a previous connection to Makerfield - his constituency - or not before he decided to represent it.

Local elections are different to by-elections though. And the swing to Reform may have been a protest vote aimed at KS?

Yes Reform had get Starmer out as their whole campaign didn't they. Plus there's Farage's 5 million pounds thing now too.

@Thefastandthecurious5 Reform voters could stay with their vote and not agree with Labour’s games being foisted on them! It’s using these voters for purely political gain. I heard it said today that the voters must “do what right for the country” and vote Labour. I would not be told how to vote by anyone from Labour who have caused this chaos. I think a lot of voters won’t like this scenario at all. Could be fun!

I am from the area. Maybe try looking further than Wikipedia for your information. Josh has been an amazing hands on MP and has made a lot of changes. Most significantly he’s sorted out the persistent flooding in Platt Bridge and forced the clearance of the illegal waste dump at Bickershaw. Interestingly he worked closely with Andy Burnham on both projects.
No doubt @Thefastandthecurious5 you will remain sceptical because your confidence you’re right isn’t as important to you as actual facts.

The problem with the state pension isn't so much the amount per recipient - full state pension is approx. £12500 a year - but the sheer number of pensioners - over 13 million. The average universal credit claimant gets a similar or slightly higher amount per year but there are a lot fewer of them - approx. 6 million households.

I completely agree we need to reduce the benefits bill but taking away the triple lock on pensions won't achieve much when the high cost is driven by the high number of pensioners.