To think Andy Burnham will not make Labour any more electable.

[4thweekofjuly]

I think there is little appetite for a new PM and a new Labour leader will make 0 difference to their chances of winning. I also think the best the public can hope for, from any government, is a slow, well managed decline. I don't think there is much of a future in the UK and the public need to accept the social contract is no more. .

Farage might not worry you, but he worries me. I will continue to squawk about him.🦜

The Labour members are probably right on who has more chance of seeing him off, the selection last time might have blown it for them if Burnham loses this by-election.

Well let the rest of us who want to squawk about Labour then 🦜

Happily. Doesn't mean I can't squawk about right-wingers squawking though. Perhaps we should have a squawk-off. 🦜🦜🦜

Reform announced their candidate.

They have reselected Robert Kenyon, who stood in the GE. He has some rather dodgy connections, it seems.

I think Reform will win the seat.

I don’t often agree with you, but you’re bang on. It’s ridiculous.

He's also only just been elected as a councillor for one of the wards within Makerfield.

It’s why nothing has been triggered in terms of a leadership contest. Burnham may lose and as such Starmer stays. In addition 30 percent of Labour members want Starmer, 47 percent want burnham; but thay could swing and it only needs a few points for either one, ie Starmer comes up a few, and burnham drops a few and Starmer could stay.

there is little between burnham and raynor In terms of their politics, and people’s appetite for that is limited, in the extreme. Plus the bond market will likely take fright if it looks like burnham will get in. Causing us serious financial issues. We think it’s tough now, it will be a lot worse, the pound already tumbled when it was first put forward he could run.

It’s not so much about him that it tumbled when he said he’d run. It’s because the market is pretty keen on Starmer. He’s doing a good and stable job. Maybe all those banging on about how shit he is should take a seat. And that’s from someone who isn’t a fan of his and thinks he’s not radical enough.

The polling by More in Common indicates that they would if it was against anyone except Burnham but it’s currently showing a tight race with Burnham in the lead. With four weeks to go it’s unpredictable.

She also thinks his working class credentials come down to the fact he has a northern accent. I disagree, as I know he had a working class upbringing and roots.

Not quite, I know his background is more working class that that, but for many voters his appeal in that respect, relative to Starmer or Streeting, is rooted in his Northerness.

I think Andy Burnham is great. I think he's a good man, superb at local politics and has a decent track record. It's no surprise he's loved by people in his area. But he's not going to make Labour more electable at the national level. Among many other issues (not all his), he's weak on women's rights, Europe and hopeless on foreign affairs.

He's taking a massive risk with this byelection, both personally and on behalf of the whole Labour party. It's going to be fascinating.

He’s not taking any risk. If he loses he’s still mayor. And the Labour party doesn’t need the ‘heroism’ of an opportunist who has been rejected as leader twice already and who doesn’t have a single idea that isn’t already happening.
It’s all ego.

I disagree. I think if he fails to win the by election he's screwed, and so is labour. And even if he wins he's still got a leadership contest and mountain to climb nationally for a GE, and he doesn't have the right equipment.

I think you totally underestimate him. It’s probably wishful thinking.

Maybe @oldwhyno does. I don’t. I think others overestimate him. He wasn’t great in cabinet. He’s been rejected twice for leader. He has no ideas that aren't already in Labour’s plan. He’s alienating people already by going back on things he said when he didn’t want to be in government. He’s a mess and the media will rip him to shreds - and he doesn’t have the temperament for it. I think he’s making a huge mistake and Labour would be making an even bigger one to be taken in by him.

I am very torn. I agree in part with what you are saying, but on the other hand the right seem pretty spooked by the prospect of Burnham as PM. For example:

www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/084ecbe17590b787

Not half as spooked as the markets and business.

Besides the carnage on the gilts market last week, the Thames Water rescue deal is in danger of collapsing because of the possibility of Burnham becoming PM.

The markets don't like uncertainty generally, is it really specific to Burnham being PM?

As for Thames Water deal, isn't that because Burnham, along with much of the general public, supports renationalisation of the water industry?

I am not an apologist for Burnham, I don't like what he is doing, but the reaction to him is interesting. Even Badenoch seems a bit tetchy at the prospect of him being PM given her performance at PMQs today. And Farage is in hiding.

Labour can’t seem to work out if they want Burnham or not.

If he loses it’s to Reform and they’ll be very happy to beat a 20 point poll bounce ‘king of the north’ with a plumber. And if he wins Starmer’s out.

That’s because ‘Labour’ isn’t a homogenous lump. Some parts of the party or supporters want him, some don't. It’s pretty easy to grasp.

Personally I am not hugely bothered either way at this point. It is a bit of a sliding doors moment, really.

Burnham wins and possibly becomes PM. Burnham as PM might work in Labour's favour, it might not.

Burnham loses and Starmer stays on for now (Streeting won't go for a leadership challenge if AB doesn't win, I don't think). The stability might work in Labour's favour, it might not.

I don’t really care if you do or don’t think the same. Either way it’s going to be tough for Labour. Which is pretty easy to grasp.

I didn’t say I didn’t grasp that though. Just tried to help with your confusion over why everyone who supports Labour in any capacity might not have the same opinion about an issue.