To think Andy Burnham will not make Labour any more electable.

[4thweekofjuly]

I think there is little appetite for a new PM and a new Labour leader will make 0 difference to their chances of winning. I also think the best the public can hope for, from any government, is a slow, well managed decline. I don't think there is much of a future in the UK and the public need to accept the social contract is no more. .

Farage might not worry you, but he worries me. I will continue to squawk about him.🦜

The Labour members are probably right on who has more chance of seeing him off, the selection last time might have blown it for them if Burnham loses this by-election.

Well let the rest of us who want to squawk about Labour then 🦜

Happily. Doesn't mean I can't squawk about right-wingers squawking though. Perhaps we should have a squawk-off. 🦜🦜🦜

Reform announced their candidate.

They have reselected Robert Kenyon, who stood in the GE. He has some rather dodgy connections, it seems.

I think Reform will win the seat.

I don’t often agree with you, but you’re bang on. It’s ridiculous.

He's also only just been elected as a councillor for one of the wards within Makerfield.

It’s why nothing has been triggered in terms of a leadership contest. Burnham may lose and as such Starmer stays. In addition 30 percent of Labour members want Starmer, 47 percent want burnham; but thay could swing and it only needs a few points for either one, ie Starmer comes up a few, and burnham drops a few and Starmer could stay.

there is little between burnham and raynor In terms of their politics, and people’s appetite for that is limited, in the extreme. Plus the bond market will likely take fright if it looks like burnham will get in. Causing us serious financial issues. We think it’s tough now, it will be a lot worse, the pound already tumbled when it was first put forward he could run.

It’s not so much about him that it tumbled when he said he’d run. It’s because the market is pretty keen on Starmer. He’s doing a good and stable job. Maybe all those banging on about how shit he is should take a seat. And that’s from someone who isn’t a fan of his and thinks he’s not radical enough.

The polling by More in Common indicates that they would if it was against anyone except Burnham but it’s currently showing a tight race with Burnham in the lead. With four weeks to go it’s unpredictable.