This is where understanding the criteria an system matters.
A child in DS's class lives pretty much opposite the local high school.
His parents started to get cold feet about whether it was the right choice and were considering putting down School 3 near where they work. Possibly with the other nearest school, School 2, as a option.
I had to explain to them that just because the headlines "90% of children get first choice option" doesn't mean that if you put school 3 down you are going to get that school. I had to carefully explain the system to her that if she put School 3 down as her first choice and School 2 down as her second choice and didn't put down School 1 she'd be utterly screwed as he wouldn't meet the criteria for either School 2 or 3 as they are oversubscribed and based on previous years data he didn't have much of a chance of getting in even on the waiting list because of where they lived and how oversubscribed both schools were.
I don't actually know which school he's be allocated to. It'd be interesting to know what she did in the end and whether she realised she was between a rock and a hard place in terms of choices.
Essentially where you go to primary school decides which high school you go to round here, with only a few primaries having a choice between a couple of options. And the authority plan on this basis. Knowing that a lot of the primaries closest to our local high school currently all have 32 or even 33 kids in most yr6 classes, they have made next year a bulge year because its substantionally cheaper and easier to do this for one year (knowing that the birth rate drops off significantly for year groups after) rather than not allocate those kids the local high and have the liability for transporting the other side of the borough.
The impact will be greatest on kids who live out of area. The school has traditionally always take a bunch of kids from the neighbouring county due to pressures on schools there and this school being closer. There are unlikely to be places available for some of these children this year.
BUT everyone who lives locally will get the local high school. Just cos thats how the system works here. The parent above who was considering School 3 and School 2 would get School 1 regardless of whether she put it down as her 1st or 3rd choice as long as she'd put it down as its the only one he would meet the criteria for.
Conversely if DS didn't get School 1, knowing how he met the criteria and theres a large intake and he shouldn't be more than half way down the priority list even on a 'bad year' we knew he would have got a place on appeal because the only scenario in which he wasn't allocated a place was because the council had screwed up and failed to follow the allocation system correctly.
Its a stupid system which causes confusion and catches people out because they don't properly understand it. There is no substitute for understanding it. Understand the options and chances of getting each of those choices matters. Sticking down a second choice can be bloody irrelevant if its as totally unrealistic as your first choice.