Gregg Carlstorm AT glcarlstorm (middle east correspond at the economist)
Striking stats from Gulf governments on what Iran fired at them yesterday (most of these were intercepted):
UAE: 137 missiles and 209 drones
Qatar: 66 missiles
Bahrain: 45 missiles, 9 drones
Means Iran launched roughly as many missiles at the UAE yesterday as it did at Israel
In response from someone else
According to UAE ministry of defense, the
UAE was attacked by 137 ballistic missiles and 209 drones. 132 and 195 respectively were intercepted
So that's a lot of explosions to be hearing and not understanding what's going on. But it's also very few relatively that are hitting.
It's also being reported that Iran only has the capacity to launch a few missiles at a time. So whilst it has a lot of missiles it's weaknesses is how it launches them and the US and Israel are likely to take care of that relatively quickly as Iran has little to no air defence. The issue is going to be more how to stop drones. But they've got to be keeping them somewhere on the ground. In theory if they can identify storage facilities it won't take long to deal with the majority of those too. I wouldn't like to be in Iran.
There has been another hit on Dubai airport today. Realistically it's going to be a target right now as it's the most disruptive place to hit and it's the place that will get the most attention. Until the US and Israel deal with Iran's on the ground capability.
This will be small comfort to those in UAE as they still fear that they could be hit, but the numbers are better than the noise.
It will explain the shelter in place well because of the possibility of debris. Trying to drive out at this point is not a sensible approach to take. And border crossings will potentially be targets especially if there are long queues.
The US has just issue shelter in place directives for US personal and citizens in Oman until further notice too, so that suggests Muscat is not a sensible place to try to escape via.
Follow information given and be ready to evacuate if told to. It's serious but still reasonably understanding control and realistically due to understanding how control of the air has been such a significant issue in modern war it should have a short term resolution. Longer term there may be other risks but that will require mobilisation.
In other words sit tight and try not to panic.
The other worry for some will be cost as many people will not be covered for extra nights away. Or alternative flights. If you have friends or family stranded I think this is something that I would have on my radar in terms of what practical help I may be able to provide if needed as it's a realistic possibility to be considered.
There are lots of government officials working out a strategy for how to help people but it's going to be a question of patience regardless. There are thousands affected and there will be limited capacity when flights do start up and it's likely there will be a prioritisation too. You are unlikely to get out that quickly so I'd mentally prepare for that too.