Typical @topicalaffair - you believe the first thing you see that agrees with your own views and make no effort to check anything out. This is the problem with this country - it's going the same way as the US and look who they ended up with in charge of their country.
Summary
- The OBR did not forecast welfare spending rising from £73.2bn to £406.2bn.
- Official OBR numbers show welfare rising from £313bn to £373bn over five years.
- “Welfare” is a broad category dominated by the State Pension; narrower definitions can cause confusion.
- The £406bn figure appears to be a misinterpretation or miscommunication rather than a real OBR forecast.
- *How accurate is the claim that the OBR “forecast” welfare spending rising from £73.2bn to £406.2bn?*
Nothing in the OBR’s November 2025
Economic and Fiscal Outlook resembles a forecast of welfare spending rising from
£73.2bn to
£406.2bn. The OBR’s published figures show something very different:
- Total UK welfare spending in 2024/25 was forecast at £313.0bn.
- Total welfare spending in 2029/30 was forecast at £373.4bn.
These are the official numbers. They are nowhere near £406bn, and the baseline is nowhere near £73bn.
So where could £73.2bn → £406.2bn come from?
There are a few possibilities:
a) It may refer to a subset of welfare spending, not total welfare.
The OBR breaks welfare into dozens of categories (pensions, disability benefits, UC, housing benefit, child benefit, etc.). Some individual lines can show large percentage changes if a policy change shifts costs between categories. But no major welfare line starts at £73bn and rises to £406bn.
b) It may be a misreading of a table showing policy‑driven changes rather than total spending.
The OBR often publishes tables showing the
change relative to baseline over a multi‑year period. These can contain large cumulative numbers, but they are
not forecasts of total spending.
c) It may be a misinterpretation of DWP’s “benefit expenditure and caseload tables”.
These tables contain many granular lines, but again, no line matches the £73bn → £406bn trajectory.
d) It may simply be incorrect.
Given the published OBR data, the most likely explanation is that the figure is either misquoted, misinterpreted, or refers to something other than welfare spending.
- What does “welfare” actually mean in UK public finance?
“Welfare” is a broad term, and this is where confusion often arises. In UK fiscal reporting:
A. The OBR uses “welfare” to mean all social security spending, including:
- State Pension
- Pension Credit
- Universal Credit
- Disability benefits (PIP, DLA, AA)
- Housing Benefit
- Child Benefit
- Carer’s Allowance
- Statutory payments (maternity, sick pay, etc.)
This is why the total is so large (over £300bn).
B. Journalists and politicians often use “welfare” to mean only working‑age benefits.
This excludes the State Pension, which is by far the largest single item.
C. The public often thinks “welfare” means only out‑of‑work benefits.
This is the smallest definition and the source of most confusion.
The key point:
Nearly half of all “welfare” spending is the State Pension. This is why the OBR’s total welfare figure is over £300bn, not £70bn.
- How meaningful is the £406bn figure?
Given the official OBR forecasts, the £406bn number is
not meaningful as a description of total welfare spending.
- The OBR’s actual forecast for 2029/30 is £373.4bn, not £406bn.
- The baseline is £313bn, not £73bn.
- No OBR table shows a rise from £73bn to £406bn.
Unless Peston was referring to a very narrow and unusual subset of welfare spending—and even then the numbers look implausible—the figure does not reflect the OBR’s published forecasts.
- Why welfare spending is rising (according to the OBR)
The OBR attributes the rise to:
- An ageing population (more pensioners)
- Rising disability and health‑related benefit caseloads
- Demographic pressures on UC and housing support
These drivers are explicitly discussed in the OBR’s November 2025 outlook.