To be depressed that lockdown would happen again tomorrow if there was another new disease

[Pavementworrier]

We talk about all the things that are worse "since the pandemic"but government prep is based on all the same mad nonsense that caused the worsening

Grim

No-one is going to lockdown ever again. Once burned…

I'm still isolating. Is it over?

So you’re depressed about something that hasn’t happened and might never happen?

Shades of just looking for something, anything, to get pissed off about.

Enough people will want to do it.

Total guesswork. You're not even trying to take into account whether the next pandemic will scare people enough to be willing to voluntarily limit their behaviour, or so much that order breaks down. These are quite basic points. Lots of things were in place with covid that aren't in any way pandemic guarantees.

All those people who say they wouldn’t comply, what if the next virus targets children and is more aggressive? What then?

I think most sensible people deal with the facts in front of them.

We are still feeling the effects of lockdowns and they must be a last resort.

I am particularly angry with the teaching unions for ensuring children from neglectful and dangerous families were trapped at home because teachers needed ventilation. I hope that never happens again.

Infectious diseases don’t care about your feelings 😂.

You can ignore any restrictions, of course, but the outcome depends on how infectious and how severe the disease is - the effects could be worse than locking down.

If it targets children and is much more aggressive, the assumption that lockdown would actually be possible needs to be questioned. Because it requires a substantial number of people still being willing to leave the house and work in often low paid jobs.

During covid, we never got close to a situation where the working age population was too scared to turn up to jobs in food transport, petrol stations, bus driving and the like. There is no guarantee the next one would be like that.

Me too! I’d comply in a heartbeat!!

Of course, but that doesn't mean it's not one of the possibilities on the table. Would lockdown be the least worst option is not the same question as would the public support it. If the public don't want to do it then it won't happen. Hence all the behaviour nudging.

Works the other way too. It's theoretically possible the next pandemic would be one where locking down caused more problems than it solved, but we still do it anyway because its what people demand. I don't think that could happen for a long time yet, but who's to say how people will feel in a few decades?

Well, yeah. If we had the worst case scenario then people would comply. That’s not really comparable to COVID where a not insignificant number of people had mild symptoms or were asymptomatic.

I am assuming that there would only be a lock down if the virus was dangerous enough to scare most people.

It was unusual for a virus to be so much milder in children than adults. The infection was quite severe with the first strain in many people over the age of about 45.

The best way to describe it is the Goldilocks analogy. A virus would need to be scary enough for people to voluntarily accept restrictions, but also not so scary that the people who stack the shelves, drive the buses, maintain the water supplies and so on would stop coming to work. We can't actually assume that any future virus would hit this sweet spot. People often tend to assume order, rules and enforcement... these things would not be a given.

Would they actually lockdown again? They shouldn't have done it last time and the economy is in such an awful state I don't think it will happen again.
What is the actual likelihood of something like Covid happening again? Most of the reason it was such a shit show was because it was a once in a lifetime emergency that no-one knew how to handle.
People won't comply, especially those in power so what would be the point?

They would need proper PPE. We didn't have that last time.

They would. It was shameful how bad the PPE was last time. But it doesn't follow either that petrol station workers, Tesco drivers and the like would get it, or that enough of them would be willing to go to work even if they did. If a virus is bad enough to scare people into wanting lockdown, it could also be bad enough to scare people into not providing the things others need to lock down.

Why does it not follow that they could have PPE? There is no reason why they couldn't.

I said it doesn't follow that they would have PPE. There is no reason why they couldn't, which doesn't mean they would.

We also need to consider the possibility that lots of them won't risk it regardless.

The only sensible post on here 👏🏼

People did die severely ill and painful deaths.
Yes mental health did suffer esp for our children (had ou foster children and DH is a y6 teacher).
We do NOT know how many people would have died, we have conjecture, but it did save lives as well.
Of it were deemed necessary again would I follow it? Yes, but I think as a people , worldwide, we would demand much science to prove it necessary.

The chances of something like Covid happening again ? You mean another global pandemic ? The chances currently are about 2-3% annually, which translates into roughly 50-60%. Modern society has made it a much more likely scenario than it once was, so considering it a once in a lifetime emergency is burying your head in the sand.

Science considers it a ‘when’ not ‘if’ scenario with a high likelihood of future outbreaks due to things like increased interaction between humans, livestock and wildlife - so more potential for viruses jumping species. Environmental changes such as deforestation and climate change play their part in expanding areas where disease can thrive. And let’s not forget global connectivity - international travel allows viruses to spread worldwide in a very short space of time.

The next one will initially bring the very same uncertainties as Covid but so far we’re not learning the lessons, so it’s likely the next pandemic will be a similar shit show to the last one. I also think it’s naive to suggest that people wouldn’t follow rules. If the disease were severe enough with the ability to spread rapidly I think the lockdown rules would be enforced much more stringently. I think now that Covid is with us as ‘routine’ illness we tend to forget the fear it instilled at the start. It was an unknown quantity, there was no cure and no vaccine - with no guarantee of one. That same fear factor will be what drives people to comply when it comes to the next outbreak.

We got through it as adults mentally but after catching it in 2022 my digestive health has never been the same.

Isn't that more reason to comply?

Covid likely originated in a Chinese and American joint run lab though. You can't give a percentage likelihood for stupidity and immorality.