It's not my assessment, it's the assessment of the criminal justice system informed by social services, forsensic psychiatry and forensic psychological research.
So that's the best we have and the tools we use.
Like you said, 'some' commit contact offences which is why the offenders are monitored but not all do.
It's fact that DC are more at risk from the people intimately around them who are very likely not consuming CSAM and not paedophiles (there is a clinical definition) but are opportunistic contact offenders then some bloke down the road who has been convicted of possession of CSAM.
ALL child predators cam be someone's son or Dad, Uncle, nephew, friend, work colleague, Religious professional, Dr, teachers, sports coach etc
What happens often is when people are fretting about a CSAM consuming neighbour who never has contact with their kids, they're ignoring the predators active in their lives.
Threads like this make that point clear "oh you should move, tell everyone and he won't hang around etc'.
The least likely person to abuse your kids os the CSAM convicted person down the road who never has contact with them.
It's the people they are spending time with, their parents, Grandparents, extended family etc and teachers, Dr's.
You just have to be aware.