To ask how much you think income tax will rise by?

[Wonderofwimbledon]

We’re absolutely financially at our limit… I’m so incredibly stressed. An income tax rise will break us and we won’t be able to afford it. We won’t have money to eat.

What do you think it’ll be? I just want to curl up and cry- we can’t take anymore increases our bills , mortgage everything has increased we have no spare money at all

I didn’t ever suggest people should be stripped of their benefits. My eldest child has moderately severe autism and is in receipt of UC. He would work, but needs support and guess what, there is no support available to help him .
No Government seems willing to endure corporations pay UK tax on their UK profits, to deal with waste in the NHS (I can’t comment on other public bodies, but there is huge waste in the NHS - I work in it and see it every day) and there are a million other issues that are just parked because it’s easier to go after the likes of me who pay their tax and can’t avoid it as wealthy people can. By targeting people who earn £50 - £150 k the Labour Party feel they keep ‘onside’ with the majority, but I bet you many of these people with their benefit claims and housing benefit have a hell of a lot more disposable income than many of those with the ‘broadest shoulders’ who are expected to suck up yet another tax hike.

and I don’t expect you to feel sorry that I might need to sell my home and move to a cheaper one , but for me, my elderly mother who relays on my help , my kids who have grown up here, it’s a personal disaster brought about precisely because I have always supported myself and NOT relied on the state. And I’m allowed to be angry and afraid

Spot on. An extra 2% on income tax would reverse that unfunded cut - putting people in employment who pay basic rate tax still 1% better off than they were before April last year - and raise extra money from those of us tax payers who aren’t employed. Seems sensible to me.

Not really - certainly nothing significant.

Adjusted for inflation based on 2023 prices, the last Labour government increased GDP per Capita from 6,915 to 8,350 between 1997 and 2008 - a rise of 21% before the financial crash brought it down to 7,740 in 2010 - although it had started to rise again by the time of the 2010 election. Even at 7,740 it was still a rise of 11% over the Labour term.

By the time Covid hit, after 9 years of austerity, GDP per capita was 8,586, an increase of 10.9% on the value at the point of election and less than 3% on the pre-crash level.

Covid dropped GDP down to 6,334 per capita, but it was a blip due to lockdown and GDP was back up to 8,593 by Q2 2022.

Between 2022 and the last election growth flatlined. In Q2 2024 GDP was 8,507, a drop of 1% on the Q2 2022 figure.

So if you take the essentially between 2010 and 2024 GDP per capita went from 7,740 to 8,507 across 14 years of the last government growth only increased by 9.9%.

If you go from the pre-financial crash peak of 8,350 to 8,507 at the point of the last election, it represents a growth of just 1.9%.

Less than 2% growth in 16 years!

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/mwb6/ukea

But for those of us who are employers we have already sucked up a BIG tax hike, which as someone upthread said is now money that this not available for recruitment / training / staff bonus / etc. Another big hike for us too ..this time income tax …

OP, just out of interest, will you be joining the next resident dr strikes in a couple of weeks? I may be wrong but I’m pretty sure you are a doctor given your posts about your long degree and nightshifts.

And now?

So a growth despite Covid and the pp said
’Years and years of no Growth’

A blatantly in accurate post !!!

If you earn a low wage job, isn't on you for only earning a low wage job

You can't go from the pre crash value though, anymore than you can ignore any other crash or recession.

Last Labout Govt - 6915 to 7740 from Q1 1998 to Q2 2010 (election was 1997 but using the same data source for ease). That's a compound annual growth rate of 0.9%

Last Conservative Govt - Q2 2010 to Q2 2024 - 7740 to 8507 - 0.68% CAGR

Lower, absolutely - but not 2% over 14 years

But I don't think the current Labour party are anywhere close to the calibre we had in the New Labour years and consequently don't see them achieving any significant growth. If they do it will be by accident, not design. Starting out by increasing the cost of employment, particularly the cost of employing part time and lower paid staff doesn't instil confidence.

The Tories only decreased tax burden for basic rate tax payer up until 2020. Since then the freezing of the thresholds has led to a real terms tax increase on everyone including basic rate tax payers and is expected to see the proportion of people who pay tax increase from 58% to and expected 66% by 2028. The tax system has also become increasingly more complex and therefore more expensive to run.

The increase in taxes on higher earners has resulted in the highest tax burden for decades yet public services are terrible and people are poorer than ever due to the increased cost of living.

It was Labour that reduced the basic rate to 20% from 22%.

Oh - and I am a higher rate tax payer, so its not self interest for me.

.

A low wage job used to be enough to live on. The fact it is no longer the case is not the fault of the people doing those jobs.
And for some people, it is all they are capable of.

8,585 - 0.9% increase in 12 months.

You can't go from the pre crash value though, anymore than you can ignore any other crash or recession.

That's why I included all of the figures, including the 9.9% growth from 2010 to 2024.

Even if you just take the first years of both governments - to before the financial crash for Labour and before Covid for the Tories, the Tory growth rate was still half that of Labour's.

On top of which, the tax burden increased on the whole and public services declined.

Growth has been 0.9% in the first 12 months of thos Labour government - same as the compound growth rate you use for the previous one and higher than the Tories.

Local authority pensions are funded by investment returns and members contributions. They are self funded.

Not by the tax payer

NHS and armed forces etc are funded by the treasury.

Can you quote your source for this please - as I understand it the LGPS remains a defined benefit scheme and whilst members do contribute the main contributor is the employer.

Early 2024 was higher than that.

The employer makes a contribution (like any job but its a bit jigher than most jobs ive had.) but its a fully funded scheme in that there is a fund. Unlike the TPS where there is no fund, it just goes to the treasury and then the treasury pays pensions.

Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have grown by 0.4% in the three months to April 2024 compared with the three months to April 2023, and by 0.6% in April 2024 compared with the same month last year.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/april2024

It’s not a bit higher, it’s a lot higher. It depends as the scheme is reviewed regularly by actuaries and the employer contribution isn’t fixed but can be as high as 27%.

You have to adjust for inflation to make the numbers comparable. The figures in the ONS link and that I quote are adjusted for inflation based on 2023 figures.

So the actual may have been higher than 8,585, but not when you adjust for inflation.

The same way you can't compare £10 today to £10 10 years ago

It was 0.7 and 0.4 for first two quarters.

Higher than other G7. A pity we didn’t keep going with that instead of Starmer’s policies.

Isn’t 0.9 higher than 0.7?

Public Sector pensions are part of the overall package. The alternative would be much, much higher salaries.

An experience principle solicitor in an LA will earn somewhere between £50k and £60k. 20% employer pension contributions (the average) takes that to between £60k and £72k.

A quick Google suggests that in the private sector, a similar senior associate role will be somewhere between £95,000 and £115,000.

That is a lot
But its still a funded scheme.