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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To ask how much you think income tax will rise by?

900 replies

Wonderofwimbledon · 06/11/2025 20:33

We’re absolutely financially at our limit… I’m so incredibly stressed. An income tax rise will break us and we won’t be able to afford it. We won’t have money to eat.

What do you think it’ll be? I just want to curl up and cry- we can’t take anymore increases our bills , mortgage everything has increased we have no spare money at all

OP posts:
Thread gallery
39
Rhayader · 08/11/2025 09:06

StatisticallyChallenged · 08/11/2025 07:38

How much is enough though?

I'm in Scotland so we already have higher rates along with weird marginals - e g our hrt threshold is below the level where NI reduces, so there's about an 8k band where people pay 42% tax plus 8% ni. So solidly 50% marginally rate.

Then we jump to 45% at 75k. Plus NI so 47%

Then at 100k you have loss of personal allowance. So for that 25k band you have a marginals rate of 69.5%. In my experience, it is a huge disincentive - people pile into pensions, reduce hours, decide not to go for promotions. I know a few people who have ideas for small businesses they'd love to start on the side but go "what's the point, I'll lose most of the income" because only retaining 30% is pretty demotivating.

Cliff edges and high marginal rates don't work. We'd probably have a higher tax take without them in reality, as so many people take action to avoid.

We saw a massive increase in tax take at the last budget, and sod all to show for it. Spending needs to be tackled first but Labour back benchers won't allow it. Actually we do have something to show - employers cutting jobs.

They need to think about how to drive investment and growth and none of these ideas will do it.

This graph shows that loads take action to be under 100k. If you have kids in nursery you are generally poorer earning 100-120 than if you earned 99 and people know it!

To ask how much you think income tax will rise by?
Rexinasaurus · 08/11/2025 09:22

1457bloom · 08/11/2025 08:10

The huge increase in the defence budget is questionable. It seems we are being played by Trump who could provide Ukraine with enough firepower to end the war. Instead he wants Europe and the UK to increase its spending on US weapons, tanks, etc. Great for Americas defence industry. As politicians have chosen that the UK should lead the support for Ukraine, this raises the prospect of our own future conflict with Russia. It is daft, we will never be able to defend ourselves against them. We need to reign in the defence spending and concentrate on problems at home.

If we don’t have a big defence budget - we could have problems at home that override anything else. Sadly this is the way of the world.

Rexinasaurus · 08/11/2025 09:24

NotEnoughKnittingTime · 08/11/2025 07:30

She wouldn't even be entitled anyway if she gave up her job. 😂

Pretty sure she’d not ‘give up’ but be clever enough to ‘lose’ a job. Like everyone else who manipulates the benefit system. Why shouldn’t she.

mjf981 · 08/11/2025 09:30

Then theres my parents.

Moved overseas at 36 years of age. They haven't lived in the UK for 31 years now. But somehow both are entitled to a UK pension and are both claiming it. In addition to a full pension each in their current country. Plus private pensions, plus significant dividend income each year. So much money coming in 'they don't know what to do with it all' hahah.....they're currently on a 6 week jaunt around the world.

When I suggested maybe they shouldn't claim the UK pension as they don't need it, it's met with incredulity. Sigh. I tried. It does make me wonder how many other expats are in a similar situation.

Rexinasaurus · 08/11/2025 09:33

mjf981 · 08/11/2025 09:30

Then theres my parents.

Moved overseas at 36 years of age. They haven't lived in the UK for 31 years now. But somehow both are entitled to a UK pension and are both claiming it. In addition to a full pension each in their current country. Plus private pensions, plus significant dividend income each year. So much money coming in 'they don't know what to do with it all' hahah.....they're currently on a 6 week jaunt around the world.

When I suggested maybe they shouldn't claim the UK pension as they don't need it, it's met with incredulity. Sigh. I tried. It does make me wonder how many other expats are in a similar situation.

Edited

They obviously paid enough in their NI contributions when working, to be eligible for a pension..

Do they come back to the UK to use the NHS (which they no longer contribute to, of course)?

BloominNora · 08/11/2025 09:45

Alexandra2001 · 08/11/2025 07:07

What taxes would you increase then?

The 11billion per year of Hunts NI cuts have to be paid for, so does the PO scandal compensation, the Blood scandal, Military deafness compensation.

Someone on another thread is worried about their Mother in AE, sat on a chair for 38hours & not getting treatment.

Who pays to improve the NHS ?

We need 10s of billions extra to boost defence spending, due to Putin.

Yet no one wants to pay the slightest extra in tax, even those with so much extra they can afford to take advantage of higher rate tax breaks on pensions.

We give consumers up to £3.7k to buy an EV, yet ppm causes outrage.

Edited

I don't disagree with tax rises.(although I do disagree with them for lower and middle earners - which, for transparency, isn't me)

I was disagreeing with reducing tax efficiencies to stop people paying into pensions.

Changes need to be made system wide not just tinkering on the edges - which is what she's doing. I've said on a previous thread what I would do although I have been refining my thinking since then - tax needs to be simplified and loopholes closed. The biggest issue for the country is the wealth that is flowing outward rather than circulating within the UK.

Obviously this is all very high level and would all have to be modelled properly to find optimal rates and bands etc, but broadly speaking I would:

Increase the lower threshold to something like £20,000.
Create a new band between £50,000 and £80,000 of something like 34%
£80,000 - £175,000 - 42%
£175,000 + - 55% - 60%

I would apply those tax rates to ALL personal income e.g. salary, dividends and interest to take away the incentive for people to incorporate solely to avoid tax. There could be exceptions for dividends where the company employs people, but which eliminates the tax perks for shell and single director Ltd companies where it is being used solely to reduce tax.

I would keep the cash and standard s&s ISA limits at £20k but create a British Investment S&S ISA that focusses investment on British business with a higher investment limit (£30k or £40k)

Introduce the US system where all citizens who live abroad have to produce a tax return on their world wide income and pay any difference in tax between what they have paid in the country in they live and what they would pay in the UK.

Like the US people can choose to give up their citizenship if they don't want to do the tax return but this would come with other consequences such as not being able to keep (or receive in future) any titles.and reduced / more expensive access to UK business opportunities.

I would introduce rules for government contracts and property investment which priortise British businesses including more favourable tax incentives. This would keep more.public money circulating within the UK itself.

Something needs to be done around property investments which stop all the foreign investors buying up property in London which then sits empty. Maybe something like higher stamp duty and capital gains for people / companies that don't pay UK income or corporation tax.

Something also needs to be done for the housing market in terms of private landlords etc - not sure what yet though.

I would bring back PPI for public sector services but crucially I would have very very strict performance requirements and penalties for not meeting them and would increase borrowing to invest in public services (Keynsian model), utilise private companies for efficiency but keep public sector control of the purse strings.

I would look to renationalise utility companies but in a way that works in the modern economy - by making the government major shareholders (like EDF in France), increasing fines and penalties where performance is not up to scratch, and reduce or limit the amount that could be taken as dividends by limiting the profit margins that are allowed (with anything above that limit having to be re-invested)

Ultimately, the aim would need to be for utility companies to operate on a not for profit / low profit basis with the government as major share holders.

BloominNora · 08/11/2025 09:49

strawberrybubblegum · 08/11/2025 06:52

@BloominNora - your take home pay wouldn't stay the same. The point of salary sacrifice is that you 'sacrifice' some of your salary to get those benefits (pension, leave etc) instead. So your take home pay goes down.

It's a way to mitigate the tax if you can afford to take home less cash each month. But the OP has clearly said she can't . She needs the take-home pay to cover her expenses, and she can't afford to put it into pension/extra leave instead.

Edited

Yeah my bad - just found the error in my calc - it would increase how much you keep personally but some of that would obviously be in the pension pot, not take home.

There may be ways of utilising salary sacrifice to reduce monthly costs though - through car leasing maybe.

BloominNora · 08/11/2025 10:06

Cinnamon77 · 08/11/2025 07:39

I don't trust Reform to sort this mess out and by the time they get in in 2029 the economic situation will be catastrophic anyway.

What we desperately need is to reduce the benefits bill. Far too many people I know are trying, and sometimes succeeding, to get out of the workplace by getting an ADHD or autism diagnosis

Don't be ridiculous. Getting an ADHD or Autism diagnosis is not being used to get out of working - people can't even get an assessment easily unless they can afford to pay privately and the people who can pay privately are not likely to be looking at claiming benefits 🙄

ADHD can be debilitating - but easily managed with medication and behaviour changes - but only if you know it is ADHD and have the diagnosis.

The issue is that the waiting lists for diagnosis are so long and then if you do get the diagnosis, they are even longer for titration unless you are able to afford to go privately.

Even if you do pay for a private assessment with a registered right to choose provider or even go through right to choose via doctor referral, GPs will not always agree to accept shared care, so people are screwed.

Particularly middle aged women as hormone changes at perimenopause massively exacerbate ADHD symptoms - so women who have successfully 'coped' with undiagnosed ADHD for years, suddenly find they can't.

I nearly ended up hospitalised with very severe burnout. I have since got my ADHD disgnosis and understand how it contributed to my burnout and am getting there with being able to manage it with medication and lifestyle changes.

Luckily I was in a job which had decent sick pay, I was able to afford to pay for private diagnosis and titration, my GP accepted shared care and I've been able to afford to pay for private ADHD coaching.

But if I hadn't been in that very lucky position, I dread to think what would have happened to me.

Its absolutely no different to someone not being able to work because they have a physical issue and are having to wait years for an operation or other treatment.

ilovesooty · 08/11/2025 10:10

BloominNora · 07/11/2025 23:15

@cottonwoolie

I've looked into that chart. It was originally posted on Fraser Nelson's Substack. There are around 15 results for it on google images - 2 of which are Fraser himself and five of which are Mumsnet - four times by one particular poster who constantly shills for Reform.

But rather than dismissing it because it was posted by someone like Nelson, I did what his substack suggested and went to the data on stat-explore.

Guess what? Quel suprise, he has completely misrepresented the data set. He has failed to remove the data for people aged under 18 or 65 and over for starters, which reduces the England figure by over half a million.

He also tries to claim that there is some kind of coverup going on by screenshotting the ONS claimant count data and highlighting that it is nowhere near the number in the DWP dataset.

He's right - it isn't. But that is because they count two completely different things.

The DWP dataset from which he produced his 'shock horror' chart shows all out of work benefits (including those being claimed by 16 and 17 year olds and those who are 65 and over and people who aren't required to work, such as those with caring responsibilities). It includes all sickness benefits AND people who do work but claim UC because they are in low wage jobs.

The only benefits that the DWP dataset doesn't contain is the state pension, PIP, DLA, AA, Widows Benefit and Industrial Injuries Benefit.

The ONS dataset on the other hand, only includes people who are claiming benefit specifically for the purposes of unemployment - basically, only those on JSA or in receipt of UC with a work requirement.

When you filter the DWP data to use similar definitions to the ONS data, the figures become very close (1,981,541 DWP vs 1,762,700 ONS) and could be easily explained by different counting periods or slightly different inclusions / exclusions.

When he is highlighting the ONS data he also quotes the unemployment figure of 4.4%, then proceeds to screenshot the claimant count - again, two different things. Not everyone who is unemployed claims benefits!

What I find absolutely fascinating is that way he spectacularly fails to acknowledge that even by his own graph, excluding 'other' which would have included tax credits, the 1997 - 2010 Labour government kept benefit claimant counts relatively steady and lower than most years of the Thatcher, Major and recent Tory governments!

Edited

Really informative, thank you.

cottonwoolie · 08/11/2025 10:12

They obviously paid enough in their NI contributions when working, to be eligible for a pension..

But what you are required to pay in is so low isn't it? And didn't mothers get stamps anyway? Plus you can buy missing years.

I have "credits" from when I was 17-19 & worked p/t whilst studying. I wasn't earning very much so can't have paid a lot of NI.

cottonwoolie · 08/11/2025 10:16

@BloominNora thank you for that, really informative.

Also people seem to forget that when the state pension moves out eg from 60 to 65 to 67 more of those 60 yr olds get pulled into the working age category where as historically they would be classed as pensioners. Obviously people in their 60s are more likely to have illness/disibility etc and for it to be a reason they are out of work.

Cinnamon77 · 08/11/2025 10:17

BloominNora · 08/11/2025 10:06

Don't be ridiculous. Getting an ADHD or Autism diagnosis is not being used to get out of working - people can't even get an assessment easily unless they can afford to pay privately and the people who can pay privately are not likely to be looking at claiming benefits 🙄

ADHD can be debilitating - but easily managed with medication and behaviour changes - but only if you know it is ADHD and have the diagnosis.

The issue is that the waiting lists for diagnosis are so long and then if you do get the diagnosis, they are even longer for titration unless you are able to afford to go privately.

Even if you do pay for a private assessment with a registered right to choose provider or even go through right to choose via doctor referral, GPs will not always agree to accept shared care, so people are screwed.

Particularly middle aged women as hormone changes at perimenopause massively exacerbate ADHD symptoms - so women who have successfully 'coped' with undiagnosed ADHD for years, suddenly find they can't.

I nearly ended up hospitalised with very severe burnout. I have since got my ADHD disgnosis and understand how it contributed to my burnout and am getting there with being able to manage it with medication and lifestyle changes.

Luckily I was in a job which had decent sick pay, I was able to afford to pay for private diagnosis and titration, my GP accepted shared care and I've been able to afford to pay for private ADHD coaching.

But if I hadn't been in that very lucky position, I dread to think what would have happened to me.

Its absolutely no different to someone not being able to work because they have a physical issue and are having to wait years for an operation or other treatment.

Edited

I know someone who got an ADHD diagnosis simply because she wanted one. She knew what she had to say in the assessment.

It's all reminiscent of children who were coached to say they had gender dysphoria and ended up getting puberty blockers. A waste of taxpayers' money and bad for the patients

Lkjjr · 08/11/2025 10:19

DH is looking to move to the middle east with work. I think all the strivers need to escape the UK

Fearfulsaints · 08/11/2025 10:22

Cinnamon77 · 08/11/2025 10:17

I know someone who got an ADHD diagnosis simply because she wanted one. She knew what she had to say in the assessment.

It's all reminiscent of children who were coached to say they had gender dysphoria and ended up getting puberty blockers. A waste of taxpayers' money and bad for the patients

Im really curious as to why she simply wanted one though. Did she do anything with it?

Cinnamon77 · 08/11/2025 10:28

Fearfulsaints · 08/11/2025 10:22

Im really curious as to why she simply wanted one though. Did she do anything with it?

She gets some sort of social capital out of getting mental health diagnoses - maybe she thinks it gives credence to her arguments that she is special. She's got ADHD, autism, bipolar, BPD and various other personality disorder diagnoses, some of which I didn't know had even been invented.

They do entitle her to financial benefits as well - for example she has a Freedom Pass so can travel around London for free - but that's secondary to the pride she feels in talking about how unique her brain is, which is then used to justify her antisocial behaviour

quartile · 08/11/2025 10:29

Lkjjr · 08/11/2025 10:19

DH is looking to move to the middle east with work. I think all the strivers need to escape the UK

I'm not sure i could somewhere where half the year i could barely go outside and have to live in an air con bubble.

There are other reasons like wanting to live in a democracy, living in your own culture that keep people in the uk

Could this level of discussion about a government minister happen openly in some of the middle east?

BloominNora · 08/11/2025 10:31

Cinnamon77 · 08/11/2025 10:17

I know someone who got an ADHD diagnosis simply because she wanted one. She knew what she had to say in the assessment.

It's all reminiscent of children who were coached to say they had gender dysphoria and ended up getting puberty blockers. A waste of taxpayers' money and bad for the patients

So because you know one person that did that, it means everyone is doing it?

If that person had claimed PIP by exagerating a physical ailment because they knew what to say in the assessment, would you think that everyone with the physical ailment was lying and just claiming to get out of work?

I know two other late ADHD diagnosed women - we all work in highly stressful positions, contributing to the public sector and have our own business which we pay tax on.

None of us claim any benefits or are trying to get out of work and it is our diagnosis and meds which have been life changing, enabling us to remain in work, and because of the sectors we work in, contribute to improving the lives of other people.

Does the one person you know overide the experiences of the three of us?

Or could it be that while there will always be dishonest people who are looking to play the system, the vast majority of people just want to get on with their lives, work and provide for their families?

BloominNora · 08/11/2025 10:34

cottonwoolie · 08/11/2025 10:16

@BloominNora thank you for that, really informative.

Also people seem to forget that when the state pension moves out eg from 60 to 65 to 67 more of those 60 yr olds get pulled into the working age category where as historically they would be classed as pensioners. Obviously people in their 60s are more likely to have illness/disibility etc and for it to be a reason they are out of work.

Yeah - I did contemplate taking the 60-64s out as well for that reason, but knew it would end up with accusations of data manipulation, so thought it best to stay within the ONS definitions.

Lkjjr · 08/11/2025 10:36

No income tax in the UAE though

EasternStandard · 08/11/2025 10:56

BloominNora · 08/11/2025 10:34

Yeah - I did contemplate taking the 60-64s out as well for that reason, but knew it would end up with accusations of data manipulation, so thought it best to stay within the ONS definitions.

Are you aware of a better visual representation of unemployment, out of work and any other relevant categories?

Someone put up a great chart from the FT on something else and it makes it easy to interpret. Perhaps there’s a better one than below for this?

BloominNora · 08/11/2025 11:12

EasternStandard · 08/11/2025 10:56

Are you aware of a better visual representation of unemployment, out of work and any other relevant categories?

Someone put up a great chart from the FT on something else and it makes it easy to interpret. Perhaps there’s a better one than below for this?

I could probably find one but rather than searching and having to double check all of the biases, it would be quicker to build it myself from published data sources.

What are your focus and concerns? Just the numbers that are economically inactive, unemployed, claiming and the benefits bill?

Anything else you would want to see?

Jamesblonde2 · 08/11/2025 11:27

Willyoujustbequiet · 07/11/2025 23:15

Its approximately 1 in 10 people so nowhere near half. Lots of people who would be eligible dont claim.

10% is absolutely MASSIVE.

I am very unhappy that my whole tax take pays towards this. Completely unsustainable and it definitely needs to be cut for only those who are significantly disabled.

People need to just start looking after themselves and not relying on the state. People need to look after their families as other cultures do.

And teach some people some bloody resilience. An acute reminder we near Remembrance Day. Get a bloody back bone.

cottonwoolie · 08/11/2025 11:33

Would people prefer PIP, AA etc to be means tested?

ilovesooty · 08/11/2025 11:36

Jamesblonde2 · 08/11/2025 11:27

10% is absolutely MASSIVE.

I am very unhappy that my whole tax take pays towards this. Completely unsustainable and it definitely needs to be cut for only those who are significantly disabled.

People need to just start looking after themselves and not relying on the state. People need to look after their families as other cultures do.

And teach some people some bloody resilience. An acute reminder we near Remembrance Day. Get a bloody back bone.

Your whole tax take? Wow.

WunTooThree · 08/11/2025 11:45

Jamesblonde2 · 08/11/2025 11:27

10% is absolutely MASSIVE.

I am very unhappy that my whole tax take pays towards this. Completely unsustainable and it definitely needs to be cut for only those who are significantly disabled.

People need to just start looking after themselves and not relying on the state. People need to look after their families as other cultures do.

And teach some people some bloody resilience. An acute reminder we near Remembrance Day. Get a bloody back bone.

Yes, I will tell my friend who is on PIP for MS that she just needs to grow a backbone and needs to develop more resilience and come off the benefit that allows her to have a life and go to work.

Or the lady I know with bipolar that her family (her 6 year old son) should be stepping up so her PIP can b stopped.

Remembrance Day has fuck all to do with it. I know veterans who are on PIP.