Pro Reform or not?

[WTAFMF]

My husband thinks way more people are 'Reform' than you'd think and many keep it quiet.

I disagreed but lately, with the flags and recent march and conversations at school gates, etc. I'm starting to think he may be right.

Pro Reform = You are being unreasonable
Other Party/None = You are NOT being unreasonable

Wondering what the consensus is on Mumsnet..

Farage is a self- serving little toad who has managed to dupe desperate people.

I tend to agree with your OH. They are managing to get a wide variety of people considering them not because they want reform but because they want change.
They see reform as a protest against the status quo, which they are fed up with. They feel let down by politicians and are tempted to vote for something different.
I think it’s those people you need to worry about and who could swing things for reform winning big in a future election rather than people who would positively choose to vote for them.
The truth is it’s a very volatile time & no party can make things instantly better. It’s easier to blame someone/something specific and rally people against them vs having honest discussions about where we are, the challenges to get to where we want to be and that it’s going to take a long time.

Hit nail on the head.

Just bear in mind that change can mean change for the worse. I 100% guarantee you that Reform will mean change for the worse. What has Brexit done for us? Nothing. By the time the electorate realises it's a bad idea to let an oligarch-influenced authoritarian, regressive and repressive movement into number 10, it'll be too late.

You won’t get a balanced opinion on MN because it’s very anti Reform and pro Labour. You only have to look at past events such as Brexit, American and UK elections to see the views on here don’t reflect what happens in the ballot box.

Is it?

I’d say it used to be. But it seems to have swapped round now

Guardian has an article today about how drab things currently feel. How a takeaway coffee is over a fiver and how taking a family to pizza express is over £100. People are starting to cut back on treats, not because they can't afford them, but because they can't stomach the price of things. 43% of people eating in chain restaurants feel shock when seeing the bill, and don't feel they are getting value.

Most people don't vote on big policies, they vote based on how they currently feel. If people are feeling that they don't want to buy a takeaway coffee or treat the kids to a pizza, that is worse than ballsing up Brexit when it comes to the ballot box.

Drab is just how it feels.

I remember in the 90s and even early 2000s there was at least a sense of optimism and energy.

Now everything feels just very meh.

But in the eighties it was drab and miserable for lots of people in the UK. These things do go in cycles...
I can understand the issues with inflation. The one bright spot is that wages have gone up more (on average) than inflation but that has the downside of further driving inflation. Plus, it's not much comfort if your income hasn't kept pace. But growth (ideally in terms of GDP) is needed. And growth will always lead to some inflation, so it's a bit of a trap. The best case scenario is the economy grows but that inflation is gradual and always outpaced by growing salaries. That's when people will feel well of.
But it's the same in America with the eggs. And Trump did not make eggs cheaper. Plus there's something stomach churning about the vindictiveness that seemed to trigger in some people.

I think this is an excellent point.

I think a lot of the people who support reform aren't the types that actually vote. Also if they did they'd find that they voted to have there benefits taken away and funding for their 10+ kids.

But they all came out for Brexit.

Oh there are lots of people in the higher tax band who support them. I think people who self identify as "ordinary working people let down by the system and struggling to get by" can earn anything from 14,000 or 200,000 a year. It's a matter of perspective (and self absorption). But I think the salt of the earth working class thing is somewhat contrived. And they will be happy to see benefits slashed. Meanwhile lots of hard working people who didn't vote reform will also see their benefits slashed/lose access to Healthcare. Plus child benefit is currently capped at 2.

And a lot of retired or older people seem to support them. And they DO vote.

I'm not saying Reform will get in. But I don't think complacency is a good idea.

I think people are more Reform than they’d admit to . MN is an echo chamber of the left so I don’t think your poll is indicative of RL.

I don’t think it needs to be guessed or relied upon anyway. There’s plenty of info on voting intention rn.

It's 3/4 years to the election. A lot can happen.
I'm worried about the way things are going, but I don't think how things are now is how things will be then.
If people are becoming politically engaged and joining parties, even Reform, at least it means that all parties can prepare as they see fit to be electable in 3/4 years rather than being surprised by a bolt from the blue.

I agree, and sure, it feels bad at the moment. But my point is it will feel worse if a bunch of WORSE incompetent amateurs get in. Running a country isn't exactly like kids having a go at Mario Kart. Like, so and so haven't had a chance to play yet, let the poor dears have their turn... Nope, not gonna work.

There's a difference between accidentally tanking the economy and doing in intentionally and telling people this is what you are doing and they need to take the pain. Labour are acknowledging what they are doing as asking people to suck it up. The Guardian are panicking because they know this is the most likely way to deliver a right wing government.

Not being able to take the kids out for pizza will impact people's voting choices much more than "small boats".

Its not so much being able (according to the article at least) as being put of by the high prices. It's the difference between can't afford, and baulks at price. It's an almost impossible problem to solve because either you have very low wages for some jobs and cheaper services, coffees, pizzas. Or you have better paid service jobs but then services, coffees, pizzas cost more

The current price rises are partly a result of the rises in minimum wage. But in the future, if people are serious about reducing immigration then either a lot of UK people will need to accept working low paid jobs (and therefore not be able to afford treats for their own.kids), or eating out and other little treats will have to cost more. In the 50s, 60s, 70s eating out was more of an occasional treat. The rise in cheap takeaways/increase in eating out was in part driven by immigration from the 70s onwards.

You can't have your cake and eat it (every day).

Perhaps. But it is going to prove a massive problem for labour.

It’s going to be a massive problem for any government.