To think Keir Starmer is looking more ridiculous by the day

[Viviennemary]

I've just seen an interview with Keir Starmer talking in riddles. If he knew then what he knew now then this mess wouldn't have happened. Three hour debate about it tomorrow in Parliament. Surely his time is up. But if a lefty takes over it might be worse.

No, the failings of the Conservatives led to the Labour landslide win. If Labour continue as they are, and the tories don't improve, Reform will win the next election.
The tories have already been punished, Labour are on course for the same.

Well quite we all know the Tories ballsed up massively but they have gone
Labour are now in power and doing very badly at the moment, there's no point in saying yeah but Tories, that's over if things don't improve then neither the Conservative, s or Labour are going to be a viable choice and where does that leave us?

Sorry was meant to quote @TheNuthatch.

Interesting that you mention food production. As I noted in a previous post, farms are closing at record rates under this government. Of the farmland sold in open sales in 2023, only 44% was bought by farmers. That's not the Labour government's fault, they weren't in power then but consider how bad that figure is likely to look now that farmers are disincentivised to invest in their own businesses because of the removal of APR, shorter of cash than ever because of Labour's abrupt cancellation of a range of support and capital grant schemes, and also at risk of being forced to sell their land at below-market prices to councils for housing projects and 'green energy' enterprises. Food production in this country is at real risk of collapse. This is a very, very bad thing. Already we are able to grow barely 60% of what we eat. Already domestic production of some staples, such as oil seed rape, is falling off a cliff because our farmers are placed at a significant disadvantage in relation to foreign farmers by their own government. How? First, most competitor countries do subsidise farming. Secondly, most competitor countries do allow substantial inheritance tax relief on farmland. And thirdly, and at the moment probably most importantly, the regulation of domestic production and imported goods are often asymmetrical. For instance, in the UK farmers are not allowed to use neonicotinoids on oil seed rape, yet there is no ban or even tariff on the import of oil seed rape grown using neonicotinoids elsewhere. Now, you might not really care about farmers, I don't know. But you absolutely should care about food security. Because even if you take the view that we can just import everything and there will never again be a war that mean shipments of food to this island are blockaded, a collapse in our ability to grow staple foods would leave us in a very weak position to control the quality of our food, and vulnerable to serious market shocks. Take wheat. In an average year around 80-85% of wheat consumed in the UK is also grown here. That provides considerable insulation against price shocks. When the Russian invasion of Ukraine wrecked Ukrainian farms and harvests the price of wheat rose around 40% worldwide. If the UK could not grow its own wheat, and was also more dependent on imports for staples such as eggs and meat, the prices of both of which are affected by wheat prices, think about how food prices would have risen. It is absolute insanity to consider reducing our ability to grow food even further yet this is what Labour has set out to do. In the words of an ex adviser: Labour hopes to do to the farmers what Thatcher did to the miners. Even leaving aside the grotesque vindictiveness and tribalism of that statement, I find that an absolutely chilling aim, as well as a staggeringly stupid one.

I do not know why most of this is struck through. Weird.

What other factors are raising gilt yields now?

Yes agreed.
I've heard the rise of Reform described as breaking the emergency glass. I think that's an accurate description of where many people are.

Same here.

He doesn’t have any political acumen so is relying on his advisors who are making bad decisions. Everything that Labour has messed up could have been avoided by someone who was politically astute. The other problem they have is they don’t talk about the positive things they have done, the legislation they have passed for the better, so all the negative gets amplified. The press have a large part to play in this as much of it is anti-Labour and always has been so they aren’t going to highlight the positive.Trying to out-Reform Reform is never going to work either as it makes them look weak.

Is that the royal "we?" Because a lot of ordinary people are enduring austerity (by any other name) after 1 year under Starmer's Labour.

Gilt yields are linked to the BoE interest rates, these have risen to fight inflation. However inflation has stayed higher, these have pushed up the gilt rate. There has also been gilt rate rises in other countries. The UK is not alone in having rises unlike during Truss's fuck up

What the Tories did post Truss, and Labour have continued, is try to set a more predictable fiscal policy so that the markets aren't spooked.

Truss's mini-budget caused the cost of borrowing to skyrocket. Mortgage offers with withdrawn. Rates went from 2% to 6% in a few weeks.

So on a typical 300k house, your repayment would have gone from £1100 to about £1700 depending on how much deposit you had. That's £600 a month taken from a household budget.

You’re just confusing swap rates, inflation, BOE interest rates and 2 and 5 year Gilt yields with 30 year. Inflation was higher under Truss for example.

The spike for Truss was because of loss of short term confidence in the economy mainly affecting 2 and 5 year Gilts which are often used on swaps for mortgage rates. What’s happened with Labour is loss of long term confidence in the U.K.

Saying that Labour’s economic management is only a bit worse than Truss is hardly a vote winner.

And they didn't for the past 14 years?

Is he? He is an excellent self publicist. He is obviously crap leader of a party and a crap chooser of people.

It always amazes me how people can't deviate from their own script.

Reform would be a nightmare for me if they got in. I will never vote reform.

That being said, it is ridiculous to deny that Farage is excellent at reading the general feeling of the public and appealing to it. Therefore he is successful as a politician.

Farage wanted Brexit. We Brexited.

Farage started a new political party. It is now 15 points ahead of any other party in the polls.

He seems to be the most consequential politician of a generation.

Whether one agrees with his politics, is another question.

Which is why he's doing so well in the polls, and his own party are so actively supporting him! 🤔

Spot on 👏

At what stage do you stop blaming Tories and make Labour accountable for shit policies? Seemingly not after 14 months so is ot after 18 months? 2 years? Never?

Always someone else's fault ie Tories/Reform/right wing press/rascists isn't it?

And here is the up to date chart based on bi-elections won since GE

You are using an old chart. I've provided the most up to date one ie from this week

"It takes a long time to fix the mess that I was left."

"We are half way through a building job,"

Who said that and when?

You really want to do this?

It wasn't a loophole it was a legitimate zero rating on education based on the principle of it being a merit good. Labour were told by judges not to use language of "tax breaks" because that was an opinion not fact. You know this yet you continue to spread misinformation that it was a "loophole" when that's blatantly false.

The tax on children's education is exactly that, a taxation on the supply of education for children in certain settings. UK is now only country in the WORLD to tax education of children. We are now ideologically behind Nigeria.

Whataboutery? Deflection?

Red Wall is now a turquoise wall, even Grauniad is reporting this