Is The IMF taking Over perhaps just what the country needs

[WaitingInForMyFoodShopping]

Ok bear with me. This sounds like an idiotic thing to say because if the IMF are involved it means the country is officially in a mess and the IMF will slash spending and enforce their own budgets and rules. So anyone on benefits might lose them, NHS funding will likely go down, same for the police force etc

It just occurred to me today that the country is in a complete mess and there isn't really any end in sight.

Headlines today - I didn't read the detail but I am just getting more angry, helpless feeling and frustrated and want 'somebody' who has some balls to step in and say enough. Things change from today. Todays headlines are rising taxes, 1/10 high school kids on benefits, families of migrants can claim benefits from day 1 even if they don't speak english.

Now i will caveat this by saying the housing market does need sorted but lets be honest that's not what they are trying to do here - it's just about raising taxes. I also say there is another articles claiming ' a crackdown on bring families into Britain' - something that made me snort with derision giving the whole small boats/protests going on just now.

I mean lets just get to the point. Does ANYONE think RR/KS are able to fix this mess. I know they didn't cause it. I know they have been in office less than a year but if we give them another year are they able to fix it. I personally don't think so. It is going to need someone very tough to brave the mess and take it in hand (Maggie Thatcher where are you now).
So what are we left with - voting Reform - which I have joked about doing but i don't actually think that is the way to go. That's borne out of desperation. So who is going to fix it then.

AIBU to think a complete reset, painful as it will be by the IMF is just what the country needs?

House prices drop unexpectedly amid property tax fears - latest updates

The ‘ludicrous’ migrant family rule pushing councils to breaking point

One in 10 secondary schoolchildren on disability benefits

The chicken run style propoganda or are you talking in riddles again?

News today.

BOE saying inflation will remain "above target" until 2027. Mind you BOE inflation forecasting is pretty woeful so I expect it to exceed that considerably.

Meanwhile the 30 year bond is at its highest level since 1998 according to the BBC. The 10 year is also close to a similar high.

The markets are watching Labour very closely to see how they deal with the 40 billion odd black hole they have currently spent themselves into.

Not much wriggle room.

Nope because i lived through the last 14 years and remember things in 2010 like A and B roads in a good state of repair, i could just about get an NHS dentist, there weren't 23 ambulances queuing outside my local AE as there were yesterday and every day, at all hospitals, my DD attended a motorcycle accident, rider very seriously injured, ambulance took 45mins, it was in the same fcking city.
Rubbish collected weekly, now 2 or 3 week collections.

Tax th increased most years.

All this changed over the cons terms in office, then they gave us Brexit, possibly the worst economic decision ever.

Thats the lens i view UK politics through.

You’ve veered off on a tangent I can’t follow again. Good chat.

Is now the time to mention that according to the press in France 30 year government bond yields have now reached 5.68%, almost 1% higher than the spike after the Truss mini disaster, I mean budget..?

Obviously the French are looking to distract from the dire situation they are in fiscally, but the gist of it is as follows:

“… GBP has fallen this morning, and the move is significant for the UK. The selloff of GBP reflects growing investor concerns about the UK governments fiscal position. Rising borrowing costs will make the chancellor's task even more difficult. Higher yields increase the cost of servicing government debt. This creates a vicious cycle where fiscal concerns drive up borrowing costs, which in turn worsen the fiscal position. The GBP is notably down Vs the Euro and US Dollar on the back of this move.”

Is there a risk that a falling pound means more imported inflation? With the inevitable pressure against further interest rate cuts?

Yes a weak pound will increase inflation

Have a look at this if you are interested in macro.

Set the range to 5 years (graph is the 10 year benchmark).

https://en.macromicro.me/collections/43/eu-market-relative/535/eu-10-years-bonds-yield-rate-countries-in-europe

You can see the Truss spike around Sept 22. It put on about 1% relative to the other EU bonds, then fell back to be pretty much consistent with what it was previously when she left.

The end of the period (post Sept 24) shows a significant uptick in borrowing costs that is sustained and still with us.

Interesting stuff.

A strong pound lowers inflation?

Are you going to tell me today’s news is
a) Tories fault
b) it’s good for the UK
c) it’s not happening, right wing press etc.

Put it on the 5yr view?

Ours spiked, fell back, then quickly rose again, only Italy matched for a while.

Pre election 4.3, now 4.7.. in August 23, 4.6.

Its a huge concern though

No, i was just asking a question, you said a weak £ increases inflation.... is the converse true?

Everyone got the Brexit they voted for.

I think it's really unfair to judge the Tories on what happened on their watch.

Interesting given the Labour posts.

Broadly yes. Strong pound makes imports cheaper. Will also lower energy costs (if strong vs the dollar) as many raw materials priced in US$.

However a strong pound can hurt exports. And won't lower inflation if it is caused by internal pressures (e.g. supply constraints)

Nobody’s said that though.

I wondered because during much of the super high inflation we saw under the Tories, we had a stronger currency.
Yet when inflation was low in the 2010s, £ at times was weak against the euro, 1.10 ish, but also reached v high levels, up to 1.40....

What makes imports and exports cheaper are reciprocal low tariffs. Sterling fluctuates because of market circumstances.

Share prices for Novo Nordisk , makers of Wegovy, for example have declined significantly in last few months. Whether they'll rise again is anyone's guess.

That was mostly caused by high energy costs, which were very much driven by the Ukrainian war. Inflation worldwide went up.

Also a lesson that politicians like to tell us they can control things (e.g inflation) but events often totally override them

"Events, dear boy. Events."

Indeed…and as energy is primarily driven by oil cost and is primarily priced in USD then that will be the one impacted most immediately I imagine. France must be very grateful for their cheap nuclear power!

Well it doesn't seem to have translated into economic dominance.

Suggesting that energy prices are merely part of the mix.

And there's no reason why the UK couldn't run on 100% nuclear energy at about 0.001p per kWh if we wanted. It's totally do-able as they say.

Nuclear power at 0.001p per kWh? Where did you get that number from? Nuclear is incredibly expensive once build costs and decommissioning costs are taken into account

Well the UK population has increased 11% over the last 15 years and national debt to gdp increased from 61% in 2009 to 96% today.

So there is more people and less money to pay for everything and that's why stuff seems to be getting worse.

Incidentally there was a motorcyclist in an accident near me who suffered a broken pelvis and he was lying in the road for 4 and half hours before an ambulance came.

But it's not just the NHS that is getting worse, a lot of other services are declining too.