To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

Statistics say they have 3 plus mps in the next election they may get up to 7 seats ,obs Statistics suggest as they want to stop the state pension, privatise nhs , and other things for right wing rich politicians even worse than the tories the boat landings and hate towards that item , this is a one party for rich millionaire s who said brexit wad good , as you can see it's failed so don't vote for them they are a waste of space , stating the stop of pensions loses 18 million pensioners votes, at a guess we will get a revamped tory party voted in ,

This hostility has been increasing for years and is only getting worse. I prefer to prepare for the worst.

Yougov stats predict 271 (https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52437-first-yougov-mrp-since-2024-election-shows-a-hung-parliament-with-reform-uk-as-largest-party)
and I’ve seen others predicting 375. Can you share the stats predicting 7 please

I’m not sure what you mean by hostility but Farage is certainly whipping up a lot of resentment. Whether he can maintain this for four years is questionable. After all he’s not renowned for his love of hard work. By the time the next election rolls round he’ll have had to come up with some policies that wouldn’t send the economy into free fall and Reform councils will have an entire term on which their record will be judged. It would be interesting to see how it pans out if the next general election coincides with the May 2029 local elections.

I don’t think Farage has to maintain anything.
The Far Right has been growing across Europe and the UK is not immune. I see no reason to have one’s head in the sand.

And I think you are underestimating the emotional voters.

I don’t think applying a touch of realism is burying your head in the sand. 🤷‍♀️ Some people actually think about what they’re voting for.

I really want this to be right. But honestly, I've lost faith since Brexit and seriously doubt the sanity of some voters. I think there are loads of Yellowspanners out there. Spanners, how apt....

I think there is an inevitability to Reform at least forming a coalition govt with the Tories at the next election, if not winning outright.

For whatever reasons, the population of this country are just not having Labour, no matter what they do. They have made great steps in increase NHS appointments and deporting illegal immigrants, but they still get an incredible amount of hate. You'd think they were worse than the Tories and Starmer worse than Johnson/Truss, but that simply isn't the case. We have grown ups in charge now, but this country just hates lefties, just like the USA.

America ended up with Trump, we will end up with Farage as PM. Nobody cares about policies anymore, it's all about soundbites and lies.

Reform PLC do not have any workable policies. ' Stop The Boats' sounds great to all the latent racists ( I bet those wanting to vote for Reform couldn't name another policy) , and there are a hell of a lot of them in this country.

I don't think they'll get in ( but I also didn't think people would vote Leave or vote Trump back in so.....)

This!! Not a reform supporter myself but I think they’ll get in despite them being way against the odds a year ago. And if it’s a choice between Starmer and Farage for PM I’ll definitely be voting tactically to keep Labour out. They’ve had their chance and fucked up badly within their first 12 months!!

There are absolutely no good options.

I'm a lifelong Labour supporter but now have no idea how to vote.

What made you vote Labour this time round? I refer to my earlier posts about the PM being wooden, blank, unemotional and robotic as well as dodging every question he’s been asked. I’m not sure (apart from to keep the tories out) what the appeal in Starmer was to those who voted for him?

At risk of sounding pompous I genuinely did vote for my local MP. She sounded impressive, the sitting Tory MP was not standing again and the new guy didn't even bother canvassing really. Fwiw I'm not sure what she's done this year. She stuck a leaflet through the door telling us what she'd done My DS picked it up and laughed out loud as it said something like ' 3 coffee mornings' as an achievement! I also wanted them in government simply because I thought they would improve our relationship with the EU and therefore improve our economy.

Well she sounds like an amazing MP 😂
Yes I agree sometimes people vote for an MP because that MP seems to genuinely care (even if it is just a facade). My local labour MP also comes across that way too, however I’ve learned it’s just a facade they put on to get the votes. I get you, I really do! But so many people on mumsnet were singing Starmer’s praises before the election. And apart from not being Tory, I cannot see the appeal in voting for someone who has no personality, is very robotic, stoic, wooden and lifeless and dodges serious questions that he really should be answering. He also appears to shut down those who don’t agree with his views as being ‘far right racists’. I’m not surprised that Farage is gaining ground when people aren’t allowed to have an opinion.

Welcome to the politically homeless club.

I'm also in the same boat. 😟

I just couldn't imagine voting for the Tories or Reform, and anyone else is a wasted vote.

I have to say, my local mp (labour) is very good, new and enthusiastic and active in the community, so all isn't lost, at least at this level.

And the genuinely disabled people who can’t work ? What of them ? Do we just let them quietly die in a corner because we can no longer afford the state support so many of them rely on ? Contrary to the popular and fucking ridiculous belief on MN that all disabled people constitute those with MH problems pulling the wool, there are actually severely disabled people out there who rely on disability benefits. Surprisingly a lot of them have worked and paid their taxes, and relied on the social contract to do what it says it will do if they pay in when they are able and take out in time of need.

Voting for an MP at a local level if you believe in them, I get it.
Voting for their leader who is stoic, wooden, unemotional, robotic and dodges questions I don’t get (apart from to keep the tories out).

My constituency was Conservative for years. As of last year we now have a brilliant Labour MP and the improvements are coming thick and fast. What a difference !

Yeh, I believe we were blue for over 30yrs in Suffolk Coastal

I didn’t say get rid of the welfare state. I said it needs to be cut. Reduced. Obviously there are people who would still qualify for support, but not all claimants would, or perhaps some could be temporary or have their benefits reduced to make work more appealing.

Genuinely disabled people would obviously been in the section of society with a right to welfare funds. I don’t know why you would assume otherwise.

Surely you vote based on manifesto. Voting according to you who like and who you perceive to have the most charisma is shallow and likely to come back and bite you on the arse.

I don’t assume otherwise. I just have twenty years experience of a disability benefits system pitched against the claimant and which successive governments have tinkered with instead of effecting meaningful change. So I have little tolerance for people who make sweeping statements without the first clue about the shit show that is the assessment process forced on our sick and disabled people.

If someone is unable to work, reducing their benefits is unlikely to miraculously make them able to work - all it will do is push them further into poverty. The whole problem with disability benefit assessment is that it’s unfit for purpose. Disabled people voted Labour on the promise that there would be a root and branch reform, making it fairer, more transparent and reducing the need for claimants to resort to expensive tribunal to get a fair decision, with the introduction of a ‘right first time’ policy, and holding the DWP to account for some of their appalling decisions.

What they actually got was yet another arbitrary and ill thought through cut which will not root out the fraudsters and lead swingers, but will affect those with significant disability who will now be forced to switch from having some autonomy over their own care needs using PIP and carers allowance, to relying on the already broken social care system which costs a lot more and provides less. The cuts won’t save a penny. All they will do is pass on the costs from one budget to another at increased cost and force inadequate care on more people.

Voting for ‘who’s policies you like’ when you’re dealing with a party who’s leader dodges questions, is wooden and robotic is never going to end well. And like you said, it’s going to come back to bite you on the arse. And it pretty much has! I’m very good at spotting manipulative people and someone who dodges questions, is very stoic and robotic and appears to be not very engaged with the public whilst spouting promise after promise is a massive red flag for me!